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A coronal mass ejection comparable to the one causing the Carrington event of 1859 did indeed occur, a year after this article was published. The CME missed Ear

by ahelwer 11y ago

A coronal mass ejection comparable to the one causing the Carrington event of 1859 did indeed occur, a year after this article was published. The CME missed Earth by nine days of Earth's orbit. If the CME had hit Earth, the estimated cost was $2.6 trillion and up to a decade for full recovery. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012

nmrm2 11y ago
> and up to a decade for full recovery. Do you have any idea what that would look like? Are we talking "back to our standard of living" or are we talking about "recouping from lost economic activity / damage expenses"?
- noir_lord 11y ago
  We'd be talking replacing huge parts of our infrastructure, cabling, power grid and large amounts of anything with chips in. The currents induced in the telegraph lines where so great they melted components in the offices. You'd be looking at replacing a big chunk of what's in space, GPS and similar would be heavily affected if not knocked out entirely. Industrial plants and factories would be wrecked, production would be heavily hit, wide spread fires the works. It would be catastrophic.
  - Florin_Andrei 11y ago
    I guess it would be the kind of thing that makes you glad you've purchased an AC generator.
    - ghaff 11y ago
      Because AC generators run on rainbows and unicorns? In other words, in a power outage that is not relatively localized you're not going to be able to buy the fuel to run it on. The biggest problem with a relatively short (less than a day or two) outages is in northern locations in the winter because of pipes freezing. I have thought about buying a generator for those scenarios but it's not really worthwhile unless it's hooked into your house electrical system. Plus you have to be around to operate it. Starts to look expensive to guard against a relatively rare scenario.
      - Florin_Andrei 11y ago
        Well, I live in California, so burst pipes is not an issue. The generator runs on the same type of gas as both our cars and my motorcycle. Our neighbors are very close, everyone has two cars or more (there's a ton of cars on this street), and the generator is big enough to deliver 1...2 kW to four residences. We could pool the gas with the neighbors. It would not run 24/7, we would run it for 1 or 2 hours each evening - and charge the 18650 cells for flashlights while it's running. I think we could get at least a couple weeks out of it, just burning the gas in all those tanks (assuming an average of 50% gas level for all vehicles). I think the bigger problems would be just finding enough AC cord extenders for everyone, and having enough water for this duration (not sure what would happen to the utilities in such an event). Also, perhaps, another issue would be guarding a valuable resource (the generator) during a time of civil chaos. Anyway, I haven't purchased the generator specifically for this scenario. I just happen to have one around, and then once I had it, thinking about stuff like the Carrington event was sort of natural. P.S.: I'm not a prepper, not even close. I guess it's just a strange kind of fun, on some level, to think about such contingencies.
        ghaff 11y ago
        Fair enough. On the other hand, if you're in temperate weather, it's not clear what a generator really buys you that some propane/butane stoves and lanterns, maybe some camping solar chargers, and some big blocks of ice don't buy you. Obviously, there are specific issues--perhaps associated with medical equipment for example--that require AC and in that case a generator and some stored fuel would certainly be advised. I don't really keep those things as part of disaster preparedness but I camp enough that I own a lot of it and if the forecast calls for it, I make sure I know where I can grab it. >during a time of civil chaos I've been through extended (multi-day) power outages and things never reached the civil chaos point :-) I expect in the US, things would have to get pretty extreme to reach that. [EDIT: I should say outside of certain urban settings where blackouts have certainly led to significant unrest.]
        geomark 11y ago
        It's pretty useful to be able to keep the refrigerator cold and have running water in the house so you don't have to go full native if the power is out for more than a day.

by ahelwer 11y ago

nmrm2 11y ago

> and up to a decade for full recovery. Do you have any idea what that would look like? Are we talking "back to our standard of living" or are we talking about "recouping from lost economic activity / damage expenses"?

noir_lord 11y ago
We'd be talking replacing huge parts of our infrastructure, cabling, power grid and large amounts of anything with chips in. The currents induced in the telegraph lines where so great they melted components in the offices. You'd be looking at replacing a big chunk of what's in space, GPS and similar would be heavily affected if not knocked out entirely. Industrial plants and factories would be wrecked, production would be heavily hit, wide spread fires the works. It would be catastrophic.
- Florin_Andrei 11y ago
  I guess it would be the kind of thing that makes you glad you've purchased an AC generator.
  - ghaff 11y ago
    Because AC generators run on rainbows and unicorns? In other words, in a power outage that is not relatively localized you're not going to be able to buy the fuel to run it on. The biggest problem with a relatively short (less than a day or two) outages is in northern locations in the winter because of pipes freezing. I have thought about buying a generator for those scenarios but it's not really worthwhile unless it's hooked into your house electrical system. Plus you have to be around to operate it. Starts to look expensive to guard against a relatively rare scenario.
    - Florin_Andrei 11y ago
      Well, I live in California, so burst pipes is not an issue. The generator runs on the same type of gas as both our cars and my motorcycle. Our neighbors are very close, everyone has two cars or more (there's a ton of cars on this street), and the generator is big enough to deliver 1...2 kW to four residences. We could pool the gas with the neighbors. It would not run 24/7, we would run it for 1 or 2 hours each evening - and charge the 18650 cells for flashlights while it's running. I think we could get at least a couple weeks out of it, just burning the gas in all those tanks (assuming an average of 50% gas level for all vehicles). I think the bigger problems would be just finding enough AC cord extenders for everyone, and having enough water for this duration (not sure what would happen to the utilities in such an event). Also, perhaps, another issue would be guarding a valuable resource (the generator) during a time of civil chaos. Anyway, I haven't purchased the generator specifically for this scenario. I just happen to have one around, and then once I had it, thinking about stuff like the Carrington event was sort of natural. P.S.: I'm not a prepper, not even close. I guess it's just a strange kind of fun, on some level, to think about such contingencies.
      - ghaff 11y ago
        Fair enough. On the other hand, if you're in temperate weather, it's not clear what a generator really buys you that some propane/butane stoves and lanterns, maybe some camping solar chargers, and some big blocks of ice don't buy you. Obviously, there are specific issues--perhaps associated with medical equipment for example--that require AC and in that case a generator and some stored fuel would certainly be advised. I don't really keep those things as part of disaster preparedness but I camp enough that I own a lot of it and if the forecast calls for it, I make sure I know where I can grab it. >during a time of civil chaos I've been through extended (multi-day) power outages and things never reached the civil chaos point :-) I expect in the US, things would have to get pretty extreme to reach that. [EDIT: I should say outside of certain urban settings where blackouts have certainly led to significant unrest.]
        geomark 11y ago
        It's pretty useful to be able to keep the refrigerator cold and have running water in the house so you don't have to go full native if the power is out for more than a day.