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> Translation: FUD The Greeks have always been perfectly free to stop paying their existing debts, at the cost of not being able to borrow any more money. The

by evanpw 11y ago

> Translation: FUD The Greeks have always been perfectly free to stop paying their existing debts, at the cost of not being able to borrow any more money. The only reason they've been negotiating with the Troika and agreeing to the austerity measures you disagree with is that they believed that defaulting would be _even worse_. Even if default is currently the best option, there is plenty of actual uncertainty, and some amount of fear seems justified.

crdoconnor 11y ago
What's left for them to fear? After years of enormous unemployment and the country's slow decline into near-3rd world status, even having your savings seized and forcibly devalued loses its sting.
- evanpw 11y ago
  1. I'm not sure what you mean by "near-3rd world". Their economy has fallen to about the pre-Euro trend-line (http://www.vox.com/2015/6/28/8858727/greece-gdp-chart http://www.vox.com/2015/6/28/8858727/greece-gdp-chart). There's still plenty of room for them to fall (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)...). 2. If The Economist is too capitalist for you, the current Greek finance minister also thinks (thought?) default would be very bad: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/05/16/weisbrot-and-krugman-are-wrong-greece-cannot-pull-off-an-argentina/ http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/05/16/weisbrot-and-krugman-ar....
  - gull 11y ago
    The Greek finance minister recommends defaulting in (2). Also note one of his points is defaulting would poison the Eurozone. That's one more reason this isn't as simple as "default would be bad" for Greece. It's a lesser evil for Greece and it's bad for the Eurozone. It gives Greece leverage. "Does this mean that Greece ought to grin and bear the massive and misanthropic idiocy of the bailout-austerity package imposed upon it by the troika (EU-ECB-IMF)? Of course not. We should certainly default." Defaulting could lead to further negotiations if Greece stays in the Eurozone, like slashing a big part of a loan handed out when projections showed Greece would not be able to pay it. Why do you loan to a country when projections show the country can't pay? Is it to keep the country economically enslaved for years? That's probably why the second-to-top-level comment translated the following as FUD. The gains for Greece from defaulting would be better than accepting the austerity measures. >For Greece the gains from defaulting would be slight, and the costs potentially vast. Translation: FUD.
    - evanpw 11y ago
      1. He's talking about default within the Euro, which doesn't seem to be in the cards any more. As he notes (in a linked article), their ability to stay would depend on the ECB continuing to support the Greek banks. In reality, the ECB froze their Emergency Liquidity Assistance program yesterday, and Greece has imposed capital controls to avoid further bank runs. 2. This article was written three years ago, when the rest of Europe was in worse shape. It's not clear how a Greek default would affect the rest of the continent right now. 3. I have nothing against a reasoned argument that default is Greece's best remaining option (like yours, thanks!). What I object to is the semantic stopsign "FUD" in response to a situation that is legitimately uncertain and scary.
gull 11y ago
They weren't that perfectly free. According to Noble prize winning economist Paul Krugman: "if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen." http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/breaking-greece/?_r=0 http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/breaking-greece/... http://www.businessinsider.com/krugman-europe-greece-2015-6 http://www.businessinsider.com/krugman-europe-greece-2015-6
- evanpw 11y ago
  My disagreement with the second-to-top-level comment is that they consider "default would be bad" to be unjustified FUD. Krugman is on my side: "force Greece into a presumably disastrous default". He's just faulting the other side (the Troika) for being so aggressive in negotiating that default seems like the least-bad option.
  - gull 11y ago
    Between this austerity and this default, default is better. See above.

by evanpw 11y ago

crdoconnor 11y ago

What's left for them to fear? After years of enormous unemployment and the country's slow decline into near-3rd world status, even having your savings seized and forcibly devalued loses its sting.

evanpw 11y ago
1. I'm not sure what you mean by "near-3rd world". Their economy has fallen to about the pre-Euro trend-line (http://www.vox.com/2015/6/28/8858727/greece-gdp-chart http://www.vox.com/2015/6/28/8858727/greece-gdp-chart). There's still plenty of room for them to fall (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)...). 2. If The Economist is too capitalist for you, the current Greek finance minister also thinks (thought?) default would be very bad: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/05/16/weisbrot-and-krugman-are-wrong-greece-cannot-pull-off-an-argentina/ http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/05/16/weisbrot-and-krugman-ar....
- gull 11y ago
  The Greek finance minister recommends defaulting in (2). Also note one of his points is defaulting would poison the Eurozone. That's one more reason this isn't as simple as "default would be bad" for Greece. It's a lesser evil for Greece and it's bad for the Eurozone. It gives Greece leverage. "Does this mean that Greece ought to grin and bear the massive and misanthropic idiocy of the bailout-austerity package imposed upon it by the troika (EU-ECB-IMF)? Of course not. We should certainly default." Defaulting could lead to further negotiations if Greece stays in the Eurozone, like slashing a big part of a loan handed out when projections showed Greece would not be able to pay it. Why do you loan to a country when projections show the country can't pay? Is it to keep the country economically enslaved for years? That's probably why the second-to-top-level comment translated the following as FUD. The gains for Greece from defaulting would be better than accepting the austerity measures. >For Greece the gains from defaulting would be slight, and the costs potentially vast. Translation: FUD.
  - evanpw 11y ago
    1. He's talking about default within the Euro, which doesn't seem to be in the cards any more. As he notes (in a linked article), their ability to stay would depend on the ECB continuing to support the Greek banks. In reality, the ECB froze their Emergency Liquidity Assistance program yesterday, and Greece has imposed capital controls to avoid further bank runs. 2. This article was written three years ago, when the rest of Europe was in worse shape. It's not clear how a Greek default would affect the rest of the continent right now. 3. I have nothing against a reasoned argument that default is Greece's best remaining option (like yours, thanks!). What I object to is the semantic stopsign "FUD" in response to a situation that is legitimately uncertain and scary.

gull 11y ago

They weren't that perfectly free. According to Noble prize winning economist Paul Krugman: "if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen." http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/breaking-greece/?_r=0 http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/breaking-greece/... http://www.businessinsider.com/krugman-europe-greece-2015-6 http://www.businessinsider.com/krugman-europe-greece-2015-6

evanpw 11y ago
My disagreement with the second-to-top-level comment is that they consider "default would be bad" to be unjustified FUD. Krugman is on my side: "force Greece into a presumably disastrous default". He's just faulting the other side (the Troika) for being so aggressive in negotiating that default seems like the least-bad option.
- gull 11y ago
  Between this austerity and this default, default is better. See above.