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Funny that the economist mentions the "history of coups" when in fact these military coups and dictatorships were instigated and supported by the US and UK to p

Funny that the economist mentions the "history of coups" when in fact these military coups and dictatorships were instigated and supported by the US and UK to prevent a communist government. (like they did in Iran back then) What would happen if Greece defaulted on western debt and aligned with Russia and China is certainly not a repeat of the fascist military dictatorship they had back then. They most likely would have social-democratic governments in the next decades, exorbitant financial investment from both Russia and China and lots of Russian military bases on their territory. This would most likely be the end of the EU (and NATO) as we know it, because from there Russia and Turkey would work on pushing the EU out of the Balkans, which would most likely work considering that all of the populations there have a strong preference and historic ties to either Russia or Turkey, depending on what country you look at. Even in Bulgaria, which is currently in the EU and has a pro-EU government, about 80% of the population have pro-Russian sentiments regarding the conflict in the Ukraine. This is why the EU and US will do whatever it takes to keep Greece in the EU, even if it means that they have to orchestrate a military coup in Greece or that they will have to print trillions to cover for the debt.

tosseraccount 11y ago
Bulgaria, Greece and Russia share an Orthodox Christian and Slavic heritage.
- DominikR 11y ago
  Well, Greeks are not Slavic but the Orthodox Slavic populations certainly view Greek culture (or to be more precise - Byzantine, East-Roman or Roman culture or whatever you'd like to call it) as one of the foundations of their own culture. We view each other as brotherly nations and there's not much that can change this, just as the Muslim populations on the Balkans view Turkey as their brotherly nation. The only reason they all signed up for the EU is because of the promise of a better economic future, not because they want to be part of western culture. During the last years it has become apparent that these promises will not materialize and that's why I expect that the EU will massively contract in the next years.
  - loxs 11y ago
    You got the Bulgaria bit wrong again. Actually Byzantium was Bulgaria's arch-enemy during most of our existence. These sentiments are nor forgotten.
    - DominikR 11y ago
      As it was once the enemy of Serbia and Russia. Bulgaria is today Orthodox Christian and has kept the culture of their "arch-enemy". If the majority of Bulgarians really viewed this as their arch enemy then they probably would have rejected this culture the same way that they have rejected the culture of the Turks (by the way in a extremely cruel way) after they regained their freedom.
      - loxs 11y ago
        Well, it's complicated on why it happened that way. USSR is one undeniable factor.
        DominikR 11y ago
        What does the Atheist USSR have to do with Orthodox Christian Byzantium? The USSR tried to eradicate all traces of this culture by harsh means. They killed priest on a large scale, destroyed churches and outlawed religious practices. When they saw it didn't work they basically started to control the church from within with their KGB.
loxs 11y ago
Actually you got the Bulgaria part a bit wrong. Currently the population is ~70% pro-EU.
- DominikR 11y ago
  I did not write that Bulgaria is anti-EU, I said it's majority is pro-Russian. EU polls: http://www.ecfr.eu/article/public_opinion_poll311520 http://www.ecfr.eu/article/public_opinion_poll311520 Bulgarians are pro EU as long as the majority still believes that they will have a better economic future. I dispute that will continue for very long considering the socio-economic collapse Bulgaria has experienced since they joined the EU. There is no shared culture or historic ties to the West that will keep Bulgarians tied to the West once the EU starts to disintegrate.
  - loxs 11y ago
    Polls are one thing and then there comes the reality. I am Bulgarian. And I don't know a lot of people who work in Russia or dream of emigrating to Russia. On the other hand I know a HUGE amount of people who reap the benefits of the EU. A huge part of Bulgarian GDP is formed because of EU. We wouldn't have dreamed of the huge infrastructure projects that are now a reality without the EU. Also, fearing Russia and loving Russia is not exactly the same thing.
    - DominikR 11y ago
      Well, it is your right to dispute this poll but I doubt that the EU gives incentives in creating polls that paint EU member states as pro-Russian.
  - gonvaled 11y ago
    its majority
Pamar 11y ago
What about Hungary? I doubt they would consider _strongly aligned_ to either Russia or Turkey...
- DominikR 11y ago
  I wouldn't count Hungary as part of the Balkans or if so, only small parts of it. But last time I heard of Hungary their government was seeking stronger ties to Russia and McCain called the PM a Nazi and compared his policies to those of Hitler. I can't imagine that anyone would currently see Hungary as tightly integrated and focused on a future in the EU. Edit: I believe the future of Hungary will be sovereign and block-free.
barlescabbage 11y ago
It doesn't matter whose debt their defaulting on. They will be suspect borrowers for decades to come. They'll have a harder time getting loans from any country in the west or east. Their business and government infrastructure will suffer the consequences from the decisions of this current government. This will end badly for them and the ramifications will last decades. If you don't believe me ask an Argentinian.
- DominikR 11y ago
  I know Argentina had a bad time, and the Greeks will probably too for some time. (albeit much shorter) But not every country is equally valuable to the great powers. China needs a strong commercial foothold in the mediterranean sea (ports) to control economic trade with the EU. (which is enormous compared to the trade with Argentina) Russia could want to fracture the EU and NATO if the standoff with the EU & US continues and wants military cooperation and bases in the mediterranean sea. Turkey wants to reestablish its influence over the muslim countries in the Balkans and since they are now EU candidate for almost 30 years (meaning: they will never be allowed to join) they will try to find an alternative. Even worse for them, the EU and US appears to be actively working on fracturing the turkish nation via the Kurds. For them it might be a question of life and death to push the West out of the balkans and the middle east.
- gonvaled 11y ago
  Well, if they default on their debts, their books will look very good so they will make for an interesting creditor. There will be lots of angry people around, but it will still make finantial sense to lend, for a tasty interest rate, of course.
scurvy 11y ago
Greece could try to align themselves with Russia and China, but I doubt they could get an appointment. Russia has no money to lend. Russia is already on the verge of financial collapse; they couldn't bail out Cyprus let alone Greece. China has shown no real interest in countries that don't have significant mineral or natural resources. Your stats on Bulgaria are also completely backwards. Bulgaria has a very pro-west citizenship.

tosseraccount 11y ago

Bulgaria, Greece and Russia share an Orthodox Christian and Slavic heritage.

DominikR 11y ago
Well, Greeks are not Slavic but the Orthodox Slavic populations certainly view Greek culture (or to be more precise - Byzantine, East-Roman or Roman culture or whatever you'd like to call it) as one of the foundations of their own culture. We view each other as brotherly nations and there's not much that can change this, just as the Muslim populations on the Balkans view Turkey as their brotherly nation. The only reason they all signed up for the EU is because of the promise of a better economic future, not because they want to be part of western culture. During the last years it has become apparent that these promises will not materialize and that's why I expect that the EU will massively contract in the next years.
- loxs 11y ago
  You got the Bulgaria bit wrong again. Actually Byzantium was Bulgaria's arch-enemy during most of our existence. These sentiments are nor forgotten.
  - DominikR 11y ago
    As it was once the enemy of Serbia and Russia. Bulgaria is today Orthodox Christian and has kept the culture of their "arch-enemy". If the majority of Bulgarians really viewed this as their arch enemy then they probably would have rejected this culture the same way that they have rejected the culture of the Turks (by the way in a extremely cruel way) after they regained their freedom.
    - loxs 11y ago
      Well, it's complicated on why it happened that way. USSR is one undeniable factor.
      - DominikR 11y ago
        What does the Atheist USSR have to do with Orthodox Christian Byzantium? The USSR tried to eradicate all traces of this culture by harsh means. They killed priest on a large scale, destroyed churches and outlawed religious practices. When they saw it didn't work they basically started to control the church from within with their KGB.

loxs 11y ago

Actually you got the Bulgaria part a bit wrong. Currently the population is ~70% pro-EU.

DominikR 11y ago
I did not write that Bulgaria is anti-EU, I said it's majority is pro-Russian. EU polls: http://www.ecfr.eu/article/public_opinion_poll311520 http://www.ecfr.eu/article/public_opinion_poll311520 Bulgarians are pro EU as long as the majority still believes that they will have a better economic future. I dispute that will continue for very long considering the socio-economic collapse Bulgaria has experienced since they joined the EU. There is no shared culture or historic ties to the West that will keep Bulgarians tied to the West once the EU starts to disintegrate.
- loxs 11y ago
  Polls are one thing and then there comes the reality. I am Bulgarian. And I don't know a lot of people who work in Russia or dream of emigrating to Russia. On the other hand I know a HUGE amount of people who reap the benefits of the EU. A huge part of Bulgarian GDP is formed because of EU. We wouldn't have dreamed of the huge infrastructure projects that are now a reality without the EU. Also, fearing Russia and loving Russia is not exactly the same thing.
  - DominikR 11y ago
    Well, it is your right to dispute this poll but I doubt that the EU gives incentives in creating polls that paint EU member states as pro-Russian.
- gonvaled 11y ago
  its majority

Pamar 11y ago

What about Hungary? I doubt they would consider _strongly aligned_ to either Russia or Turkey...

DominikR 11y ago
I wouldn't count Hungary as part of the Balkans or if so, only small parts of it. But last time I heard of Hungary their government was seeking stronger ties to Russia and McCain called the PM a Nazi and compared his policies to those of Hitler. I can't imagine that anyone would currently see Hungary as tightly integrated and focused on a future in the EU. Edit: I believe the future of Hungary will be sovereign and block-free.

barlescabbage 11y ago

It doesn't matter whose debt their defaulting on. They will be suspect borrowers for decades to come. They'll have a harder time getting loans from any country in the west or east. Their business and government infrastructure will suffer the consequences from the decisions of this current government. This will end badly for them and the ramifications will last decades. If you don't believe me ask an Argentinian.

DominikR 11y ago
I know Argentina had a bad time, and the Greeks will probably too for some time. (albeit much shorter) But not every country is equally valuable to the great powers. China needs a strong commercial foothold in the mediterranean sea (ports) to control economic trade with the EU. (which is enormous compared to the trade with Argentina) Russia could want to fracture the EU and NATO if the standoff with the EU & US continues and wants military cooperation and bases in the mediterranean sea. Turkey wants to reestablish its influence over the muslim countries in the Balkans and since they are now EU candidate for almost 30 years (meaning: they will never be allowed to join) they will try to find an alternative. Even worse for them, the EU and US appears to be actively working on fracturing the turkish nation via the Kurds. For them it might be a question of life and death to push the West out of the balkans and the middle east.
gonvaled 11y ago
Well, if they default on their debts, their books will look very good so they will make for an interesting creditor. There will be lots of angry people around, but it will still make finantial sense to lend, for a tasty interest rate, of course.

scurvy 11y ago

Greece could try to align themselves with Russia and China, but I doubt they could get an appointment. Russia has no money to lend. Russia is already on the verge of financial collapse; they couldn't bail out Cyprus let alone Greece. China has shown no real interest in countries that don't have significant mineral or natural resources. Your stats on Bulgaria are also completely backwards. Bulgaria has a very pro-west citizenship.