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Will Greece Will Exit the Eurozone in 2015? – Live Odds

• agiamas 11y ago
  if we don't, I will be really surprised... You know nothing about our politicians..If you did, this wouldn't be 40-60 but way more!
  • djloche 11y ago
    Based on what I've heard from family that just got back from Greece, the referendum will come in with a strong majority voting to reject the terms from the EU/ECB/IMF, and the loans will be defaulted on. Does this mean that the EU / EMU will vote to kick out GR from their unions? Or that GR politicians will vote to leave EU / EMU ? As much as I personally hope for the entire continent to reject the EMU and return to their own currencies, these things are less clear.
• opcvx 11y ago
  Where does the data come from?
• sonium 11y ago
  ...or one could resort to the implied risk at Greek government bonds. A bond which matures in November next year trades at about 60% of the value you will (or wont) receive at that date. In other words the odds are roughly 2:3 that Greece defaults until then. http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/191049-Griechenland-Anleihe http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/191049-Griechenland-Anleihe