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The math is well defined and rigorous not every analysis that uses it. I think you're conflating those two things.
by darkxanthos 11y ago
The math is well defined and rigorous not every analysis that uses it. I think you're conflating those two things.
- davidgerard 11y agoHe's talking about the practical effects of fallible humans using the version of Bayes advocated in the original post (citing Yudkowsky and Muehlhauser). Pulling numbers out of your backside and running them through a process makes you more confident than just pulling them out of your backside directly, but I've yet to see evidence it does more than increasing your confidence.
- dimino 11y agoOh yes, I wouldn't question the math -- it's well beyond my expertise, and I've heard of way too many implementations of the theory to refute it at a theoretical level.