11 ms·

I honestly don't believe Bayes is that relevant to day to day decision making but I'm keen to see a counter-argument (I have some but I don't find them convinci

I honestly don't believe Bayes is that relevant to day to day decision making but I'm keen to see a counter-argument (I have some but I don't find them convincing yet). I see Bayes as a method to solve certain classes of problem but the key challenge in everyday decisions is more like a design problem i.e. to define what the problem is. Once you have defined "what would be a good outcome of this decision" sufficiently, the answer rarely requires statistical methods. The common sources of error in a decision are in its definition e.g. omitting a requirement that is later revealed as essential. For example, if you are analysing drug studies, Bayes is obviously relevant but for something more common place such as choosing a software tool, the main challenge is to understand what your goals are so that you can identify the criteria by which to judge the tools and the trade-offs you are willing to accept. The biggest steps to improving decision quality appear to be process related e.g. using prototypes to explore options before making a larger commitment. Such acts are so effective because they reveal information that lets you improve your goals rather than just clarifying the quality of an option.

Pamar 11y ago
Well, I wouldn't be surprised if the only practical benefit in building a Bayesian Network model ended up being that "that you had to think long and hard at what the various inputs are and how they should be linked". I am curious if there is any kind of resource that would help me to confidently add Bayes to my normal decision-making toolchest.
- duncanawoods 11y ago
  Yep, I can see the value as a thinking tool. There are tools like http://www.bayesia.com/ http://www.bayesia.com/ and http://www.hugin.com/ http://www.hugin.com/ but they are enterprise pricey and I find them very clunky. I'd love to know how your ideal tool might work. Do you mind if I drop you an email (from your profile info)? I'm working on a decision making tool to let you quickly describe reasoning with simple bullet point lists. It aims to be as quick as a making a rough note so that with just a few different types of bullet, you can create belief networks and computable decision models. The tool is intended for a general audience so it currently uses simple weighted evidence. If you can tell me how you would like to work with probabilities then you might get the tool you want :)
  - Pamar 11y ago
    Sorry, seen this only now... please feel free to write directly, thanks.

Pamar 11y ago

Well, I wouldn't be surprised if the only practical benefit in building a Bayesian Network model ended up being that "that you had to think long and hard at what the various inputs are and how they should be linked". I am curious if there is any kind of resource that would help me to confidently add Bayes to my normal decision-making toolchest.

duncanawoods 11y ago
Yep, I can see the value as a thinking tool. There are tools like http://www.bayesia.com/ http://www.bayesia.com/ and http://www.hugin.com/ http://www.hugin.com/ but they are enterprise pricey and I find them very clunky. I'd love to know how your ideal tool might work. Do you mind if I drop you an email (from your profile info)? I'm working on a decision making tool to let you quickly describe reasoning with simple bullet point lists. It aims to be as quick as a making a rough note so that with just a few different types of bullet, you can create belief networks and computable decision models. The tool is intended for a general audience so it currently uses simple weighted evidence. If you can tell me how you would like to work with probabilities then you might get the tool you want :)
- Pamar 11y ago
  Sorry, seen this only now... please feel free to write directly, thanks.