4 ms·

There are multiple RIRs who exhausted in various times. RIPE already ran on the "1024 addresses for every new member and that's it" soft-landing policy for the

by ay 11y ago

There are multiple RIRs who exhausted in various times. RIPE already ran on the "1024 addresses for every new member and that's it" soft-landing policy for the past couple of years. But ARIN does not have a nice policy like RIPE does, so it will be a bit more entertaining this time.

tedunangst 11y ago
None of which makes me care. From the beginning, the relevant question has been, when will I be unable to get an IP? And every time the answer is "real soon now". Yet the price of an extra IP on linode (for one example) has not budged from $1/month. You'll understand if this doesn't inspire much concern. For the record, I make the same complaint every time. Always the same response. "Those were warning signs, but now the end is nigh!"
- profmonocle 11y ago
  > From the beginning, the relevant question has been, when will I be unable to get an IP? And every time the answer is "real soon now". It's going to be a long time before you can't get an IPv4 address at all. But what is going to happen over time is the cost of an IPv4 address is going to go up, since demand will increase, but supply won't.
- zaroth 11y ago
  When you think of the size of the IPv4 space, you realize that $1/mo for an IP is by far the most profitable add-on they sell. 4.3 billion IPs x $12 per year = $51 billion. If the average cost to actually hold an IPv4 address was even $0.10/month, we would not be talking about IPv4 exhaustion. My point is, as long as you're willing to spend $12/year just for the IP address, there will be a long line of people happy to sell one to you. But $1 per month for a routable address is at least two orders of magnitude more expensive than network architects are aiming for.
  - ay 11y ago
    Exactly. And as the home speeds reach 1Gbps to the home, there will not be enough CGN boxes that will be able to sustain that load, so one of the two options: 1) more stateless mechanisms will be used (lw4o6, MAP) - which do not give the entire IPv4 address to residential users => so even if the service has an IPv4 address, the clients might have to go through the hurdles to get to it. Service providers are planning to go IPv6-only, and content providers already note that IPv6 gives a double-digit performance increase compared to IPv4 [1] 2) The residential ISPs will debundle the IPv4 from the cost - given that a lot of the sites average consumer needs (google, facebook, youtube, netflix) are already IPv6-enabled. For this case, you will not be even able to see that something is "wrong". Just the users will click on the link, see it's not reachable, say "huh?" and move on. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfjdOc41g0s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfjdOc41g0s - 1h12 well spent.
- ay 11y ago
  There will be no abrupt end. Just the price per IP will slowly grow, and the usefulness of this IP will slowly fade. There's no panic. The trick with IPv6 deployment is predicting two years in advance the moment will you need IPv6 "tomorrow" - because for a lot of orgs that's how long it takes. I'll repost a link from the recent NANOG meeting here about the folks seriously discussing their plans of going IPv6-only: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfjdOc41g0s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfjdOc41g0s By the way, if you're reading this from a smartphone in the US, try this link: http://test-ipv6.com/ http://test-ipv6.com/ I thoroughly enjoyed the moment when one networking pro (who dealt with IPv6 20 years ago and not since) was telling me he won't have IPv6 till he retires, realized he had his on his LTE connection and was using it for quite some time already! :-) I repeat myself from another post: One out of five users hitting google.com and facebook.com in the US today does so over IPv6.

by ay 11y ago

tedunangst 11y ago

None of which makes me care. From the beginning, the relevant question has been, when will I be unable to get an IP? And every time the answer is "real soon now". Yet the price of an extra IP on linode (for one example) has not budged from $1/month. You'll understand if this doesn't inspire much concern. For the record, I make the same complaint every time. Always the same response. "Those were warning signs, but now the end is nigh!"

profmonocle 11y ago
> From the beginning, the relevant question has been, when will I be unable to get an IP? And every time the answer is "real soon now". It's going to be a long time before you can't get an IPv4 address at all. But what is going to happen over time is the cost of an IPv4 address is going to go up, since demand will increase, but supply won't.
zaroth 11y ago
When you think of the size of the IPv4 space, you realize that $1/mo for an IP is by far the most profitable add-on they sell. 4.3 billion IPs x $12 per year = $51 billion. If the average cost to actually hold an IPv4 address was even $0.10/month, we would not be talking about IPv4 exhaustion. My point is, as long as you're willing to spend $12/year just for the IP address, there will be a long line of people happy to sell one to you. But $1 per month for a routable address is at least two orders of magnitude more expensive than network architects are aiming for.
- ay 11y ago
  Exactly. And as the home speeds reach 1Gbps to the home, there will not be enough CGN boxes that will be able to sustain that load, so one of the two options: 1) more stateless mechanisms will be used (lw4o6, MAP) - which do not give the entire IPv4 address to residential users => so even if the service has an IPv4 address, the clients might have to go through the hurdles to get to it. Service providers are planning to go IPv6-only, and content providers already note that IPv6 gives a double-digit performance increase compared to IPv4 [1] 2) The residential ISPs will debundle the IPv4 from the cost - given that a lot of the sites average consumer needs (google, facebook, youtube, netflix) are already IPv6-enabled. For this case, you will not be even able to see that something is "wrong". Just the users will click on the link, see it's not reachable, say "huh?" and move on. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfjdOc41g0s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfjdOc41g0s - 1h12 well spent.
ay 11y ago
There will be no abrupt end. Just the price per IP will slowly grow, and the usefulness of this IP will slowly fade. There's no panic. The trick with IPv6 deployment is predicting two years in advance the moment will you need IPv6 "tomorrow" - because for a lot of orgs that's how long it takes. I'll repost a link from the recent NANOG meeting here about the folks seriously discussing their plans of going IPv6-only: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfjdOc41g0s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfjdOc41g0s By the way, if you're reading this from a smartphone in the US, try this link: http://test-ipv6.com/ http://test-ipv6.com/ I thoroughly enjoyed the moment when one networking pro (who dealt with IPv6 20 years ago and not since) was telling me he won't have IPv6 till he retires, realized he had his on his LTE connection and was using it for quite some time already! :-) I repeat myself from another post: One out of five users hitting google.com and facebook.com in the US today does so over IPv6.