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The main problem is that taxi medallions cost a lot (€200-250K in Paris, up to €300K in some southern cities). Independent taxi drivers got indebted to buy them

by fab13n 11y ago

The main problem is that taxi medallions cost a lot (€200-250K in Paris, up to €300K in some southern cities). Independent taxi drivers got indebted to buy them, and generally expected to resell them at a profit to finance their retirement. Another thing that isn't much discussed in medias, is that a few companies, most notably G7, own most medallions and lease them to (poor) drivers, often together with the car and the radio reservation service. Those companies typically have received those medallions for free from the state, decades ago, before reselling them became legalized. Those companies obviously pull some strings, both stirring up drivers and talking in minister cabinets. Anyway eventually they're fucked, Uber or no Uber: autonomous cars will make taxis obsolete at warping speed. Taxi drivers are fucked that much harder than Uber's, because they'll be left with a worthless medallion and its 20 years mortgage. (It's also likely to make private car ownership marginal, something akin to owning your own horse in the XXth century, thus hitting car manufacturing pretty badly once enough autonomous cars have been produced, but that's another quagmire).

te_chris 11y ago
There is very little proof that the techno-utopian version of autonomous vehicles is going to play out the way people like you want it to. Sure, on the surface Taxi's are dead, but I would wager that it will be a lot slower than people on here think, not least for the difficulty of cleaning autonomous cabs.
- topynate 11y ago
  Cab drives to cleaners; some dude cleans cab. A few minutes work per day per cab. Maybe the other factors will be of more importance, but I don't see huge labour costs here. Oh, and bonus: hiring an autonomous account will likely involve disclosing your identity in advance. If you're the sort of customer who makes a habit of fouling cabs, maybe you'll have to pay more to hire one.
- jobigoud 11y ago
  We already have car sharing services like Autolib where you can pick up an electric car at a station, use it, and park it at another station. I imagine cleaning autonomous cabs will be exactly the same effort than cleaning shared cars. Probably less if the car can drive itself to the depot.
  - fab13n 11y ago
    Yes, as long as you know who used a vehicle, chances of getting it thrashed are easily manageable.
- yourapostasy 11y ago
  There are even investors and syndicates inserting themselves into the medallion markets now [1]. When you see even these market participants pulling out altogether, then I can easily believe the autonomous passenger vehicle is within 5-20 years of obliterating the taxi industry (though I doubt that will happen). I'm not aware of a way to short medallions, so I can't tell if that is going on. So far as I can tell, these people are still participating in the medallion market and various secondary markets, despite the recent downward tick of medallion prices. I'm guessing they and the industry in general have a lot of political pull, and are counting on that influence to wring another few decades out of conventional taxis before autonomous options mutate them into a different-looking industry. Unless there is a really broad-based public backlash that makes it political suicide to continue licensing however, even if autonomous vehicles are ubiquitous I can't see municipalities and various institutions and agencies in general giving up the affiliated revenue stream. Even if we end up with something like Johnny Cabs [2] and no humans drive taxis any longer, I expect some form of government-imposed licensing to still exist. [1] http://venturebeat.com/2014/06/21/add-taxi-medallion-investors-to-the-list-of-ubers-enemies/ http://venturebeat.com/2014/06/21/add-taxi-medallion-investo... [2] http://www.empireonline.com/features/helpful-movie-robots-that-will-ruin-your-life/p10 http://www.empireonline.com/features/helpful-movie-robots-th...
  - fab13n 11y ago
    The thing is, autonomous vehicles don't need to take the taxi niche frontally. Here's how it goes, if legislation is too slow: 1. families buy one autonomous car instead of several driven ones: when dad's arrived at work, the car goes back to become mom's car for the day. With a nice twist: when the car goes and fetch kids from soccer, mom doesn't have to be in it. 2. People pool cars privately: one car for a couple of families if they're light users, X/Y cars for X families for more intensive users. It's shared property, neither a taxi activity nor even a company providing a service. 2bis. Some AirBnB of autonomous cars facilitates mutual lending of cars, in parallel with the development of privately organized pools 3. Cars are leased instead of bought upfront, from companies embedded with the AirBnB-of-autonomous-cars. What you have now is effectively an autonomous taxi company. The economic pressure to get rid of drivers will be enormous. Sure, car makers and drivers won't like it, but all of the money that won't go there will be up for grab by other sectors. Think of trucks: not only autonomous trucks will drive 23h a day, but everyone who sells anything moved by truck will have their margin augmented by skipping drivers' salaries.
- kaa2102 11y ago
  One problem is that replacing truck drivers with self-driving trucks could save lots of money. However, truck driving is one of the most popular professions in America. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/truck-driving-may-be-america-s-most-popular-job--182859840.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/truck-driving-may-be-america-s...
MichaelCrawford 11y ago
"It's a corrupt industry." A detroit taxi driver told me that if he pissed anyone off the dispatcher would stop sending him fares.
yodsanklai 11y ago
> taxi medallions cost a lot (€200-250K in Paris, up to €300K in some southern cities) My understanding is that they're actually free. But it can take years before you actually get one, which is why people buy them on the black market. I don't know how I feel about those taxi drivers. It seems they've just made a very bad investment. In any case, it would be great if taxis were more affordable and available in France. Maybe the gvt could work with uber and negotiate some sort of compensation for the taxi drivers?
- fab13n 11y ago
  License are free when delivered by the state ("préfecture"); but taxis effectively lobby against creating new ones, in order to preserve the value of existing ones and to prevent competition, so extremely few are ever distributed. In practice, the only way to get one is to buy one from a retiring driver. The vacuum that attracted Uber has been created by their resistance against license creation, they dug their own grave. The two big problems in Paris are that you can't find a taxi when you need one, and when you have one, he often doesn't have a credit card reader (those pesky snitches which prevent tax evasion).
- epsylon 11y ago
  I oppose any usage of my taxes to compensate the rackeetering taxi drivers. Never ever have I taken a taxi in France (I'm French) that didn't charge an exorbitant price while imposing me to listen to their racist and self-important rants. Their profession should die and make room for something better.
- kaa2102 11y ago
  The "bad investment" is worrisome in a capitalist society. Smart investors are supposed to make wise decisions but regulation from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission determine how much capital and experience is required to become a registered investor. However, someone seeking an occupation is not a sophisticated investor. Nor would a factory worker be expected to be able to predict major changes. Yet, working and middle class folks must invest and take risks on education, certification, and career-paths lest they suffer the consequences.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]

by fab13n 11y ago

te_chris 11y ago

There is very little proof that the techno-utopian version of autonomous vehicles is going to play out the way people like you want it to. Sure, on the surface Taxi's are dead, but I would wager that it will be a lot slower than people on here think, not least for the difficulty of cleaning autonomous cabs.

topynate 11y ago
Cab drives to cleaners; some dude cleans cab. A few minutes work per day per cab. Maybe the other factors will be of more importance, but I don't see huge labour costs here. Oh, and bonus: hiring an autonomous account will likely involve disclosing your identity in advance. If you're the sort of customer who makes a habit of fouling cabs, maybe you'll have to pay more to hire one.
jobigoud 11y ago
We already have car sharing services like Autolib where you can pick up an electric car at a station, use it, and park it at another station. I imagine cleaning autonomous cabs will be exactly the same effort than cleaning shared cars. Probably less if the car can drive itself to the depot.
- fab13n 11y ago
  Yes, as long as you know who used a vehicle, chances of getting it thrashed are easily manageable.
yourapostasy 11y ago
There are even investors and syndicates inserting themselves into the medallion markets now [1]. When you see even these market participants pulling out altogether, then I can easily believe the autonomous passenger vehicle is within 5-20 years of obliterating the taxi industry (though I doubt that will happen). I'm not aware of a way to short medallions, so I can't tell if that is going on. So far as I can tell, these people are still participating in the medallion market and various secondary markets, despite the recent downward tick of medallion prices. I'm guessing they and the industry in general have a lot of political pull, and are counting on that influence to wring another few decades out of conventional taxis before autonomous options mutate them into a different-looking industry. Unless there is a really broad-based public backlash that makes it political suicide to continue licensing however, even if autonomous vehicles are ubiquitous I can't see municipalities and various institutions and agencies in general giving up the affiliated revenue stream. Even if we end up with something like Johnny Cabs [2] and no humans drive taxis any longer, I expect some form of government-imposed licensing to still exist. [1] http://venturebeat.com/2014/06/21/add-taxi-medallion-investors-to-the-list-of-ubers-enemies/ http://venturebeat.com/2014/06/21/add-taxi-medallion-investo... [2] http://www.empireonline.com/features/helpful-movie-robots-that-will-ruin-your-life/p10 http://www.empireonline.com/features/helpful-movie-robots-th...
- fab13n 11y ago
  The thing is, autonomous vehicles don't need to take the taxi niche frontally. Here's how it goes, if legislation is too slow: 1. families buy one autonomous car instead of several driven ones: when dad's arrived at work, the car goes back to become mom's car for the day. With a nice twist: when the car goes and fetch kids from soccer, mom doesn't have to be in it. 2. People pool cars privately: one car for a couple of families if they're light users, X/Y cars for X families for more intensive users. It's shared property, neither a taxi activity nor even a company providing a service. 2bis. Some AirBnB of autonomous cars facilitates mutual lending of cars, in parallel with the development of privately organized pools 3. Cars are leased instead of bought upfront, from companies embedded with the AirBnB-of-autonomous-cars. What you have now is effectively an autonomous taxi company. The economic pressure to get rid of drivers will be enormous. Sure, car makers and drivers won't like it, but all of the money that won't go there will be up for grab by other sectors. Think of trucks: not only autonomous trucks will drive 23h a day, but everyone who sells anything moved by truck will have their margin augmented by skipping drivers' salaries.
kaa2102 11y ago
One problem is that replacing truck drivers with self-driving trucks could save lots of money. However, truck driving is one of the most popular professions in America. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/truck-driving-may-be-america-s-most-popular-job--182859840.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/truck-driving-may-be-america-s...

MichaelCrawford 11y ago

"It's a corrupt industry." A detroit taxi driver told me that if he pissed anyone off the dispatcher would stop sending him fares.

yodsanklai 11y ago

> taxi medallions cost a lot (€200-250K in Paris, up to €300K in some southern cities) My understanding is that they're actually free. But it can take years before you actually get one, which is why people buy them on the black market. I don't know how I feel about those taxi drivers. It seems they've just made a very bad investment. In any case, it would be great if taxis were more affordable and available in France. Maybe the gvt could work with uber and negotiate some sort of compensation for the taxi drivers?

fab13n 11y ago
License are free when delivered by the state ("préfecture"); but taxis effectively lobby against creating new ones, in order to preserve the value of existing ones and to prevent competition, so extremely few are ever distributed. In practice, the only way to get one is to buy one from a retiring driver. The vacuum that attracted Uber has been created by their resistance against license creation, they dug their own grave. The two big problems in Paris are that you can't find a taxi when you need one, and when you have one, he often doesn't have a credit card reader (those pesky snitches which prevent tax evasion).
epsylon 11y ago
I oppose any usage of my taxes to compensate the rackeetering taxi drivers. Never ever have I taken a taxi in France (I'm French) that didn't charge an exorbitant price while imposing me to listen to their racist and self-important rants. Their profession should die and make room for something better.
kaa2102 11y ago
The "bad investment" is worrisome in a capitalist society. Smart investors are supposed to make wise decisions but regulation from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission determine how much capital and experience is required to become a registered investor. However, someone seeking an occupation is not a sophisticated investor. Nor would a factory worker be expected to be able to predict major changes. Yet, working and middle class folks must invest and take risks on education, certification, and career-paths lest they suffer the consequences.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]