4 ms·

Not the most credible looking site, but the graphic seems well cited: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/04/global-warming-slowdown-the-view-from-space/ http://ww

Not the most credible looking site, but the graphic seems well cited: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/04/global-warming-slowdown-the-view-from-space/ http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/04/global-warming-slowdown-...

cholantesh 11y ago
Spencer is pretty out there. He's gone on record to say that warming proponents are advancing an argument that will lead to more deaths than the NSDAP's policies did, and is a signatory to the Evangelical Declaration on Climate Change, which suggests that this is largely a matter of faith for him...
- dnautics 11y ago
  He does also maintain one of the satellite records, which does show global warming over the period 1960-2000 (not so much the last 10 years because of the global warming hiatus).
  - cholantesh 11y ago
    And other records do not show such a hiatus (http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-not-slowing-its-speeding-up.html http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-not-slowing-i...).
    - dnautics 11y ago
      Did you even read the article? look at the university of York dataset, which clearly shows the 1960-2000 warming followed by the 2000-2010 hiatus. Note the York dataset is strictly observationally independent of the UAH dataset.
      - cholantesh 11y ago
        Evidently we were reading different articles,because the author emphatically doesn't concur with your interpetation of the York dataset.
  - merpnderp 11y ago
    RSS troposphere's hiatus goes back to December 1996 as of May 2015.
  - tosseraccount 11y ago
    Did any models predict the "global warming hiatus" ?
    - Zuider 11y ago
      Hans von Storch, professor at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg discussed this issue in a recent interview with Der Spiegel. He remarked that less than 2% of model runs reproduced the 'pause'. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-hans-von-storch-on-problems-with-climate-change-models-a-906721.html http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-hans-von... SPIEGEL: Just since the turn of the millennium, humanity has emitted another 400 billion metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, yet temperatures haven't risen in nearly 15 years. What can explain this? Storch: So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We're facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn't happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) -- a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year. SPIEGEL: Do the computer models with which physicists simulate the future climate ever show the sort of long standstill in temperature change that we're observing right now? Storch: Yes, but only extremely rarely. At my institute, we analyzed how often such a 15-year stagnation in global warming occurred in the simulations. The answer was: in under 2 percent of all the times we ran the simulation. In other words, over 98 percent of forecasts show CO2 emissions as high as we have had in recent years leading to more of a temperature increase.
      - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
        Confused: this is the hottest year on record worldwide. In what way is this 'taking a break'?
        DanBC 11y ago

cholantesh 11y ago

Spencer is pretty out there. He's gone on record to say that warming proponents are advancing an argument that will lead to more deaths than the NSDAP's policies did, and is a signatory to the Evangelical Declaration on Climate Change, which suggests that this is largely a matter of faith for him...

dnautics 11y ago
He does also maintain one of the satellite records, which does show global warming over the period 1960-2000 (not so much the last 10 years because of the global warming hiatus).
- cholantesh 11y ago
  And other records do not show such a hiatus (http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-not-slowing-its-speeding-up.html http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-not-slowing-i...).
  - dnautics 11y ago
    Did you even read the article? look at the university of York dataset, which clearly shows the 1960-2000 warming followed by the 2000-2010 hiatus. Note the York dataset is strictly observationally independent of the UAH dataset.
    - cholantesh 11y ago
      Evidently we were reading different articles,because the author emphatically doesn't concur with your interpetation of the York dataset.
- merpnderp 11y ago
  RSS troposphere's hiatus goes back to December 1996 as of May 2015.
- tosseraccount 11y ago
  Did any models predict the "global warming hiatus" ?
  - Zuider 11y ago
    Hans von Storch, professor at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg discussed this issue in a recent interview with Der Spiegel. He remarked that less than 2% of model runs reproduced the 'pause'. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-hans-von-storch-on-problems-with-climate-change-models-a-906721.html http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-hans-von... SPIEGEL: Just since the turn of the millennium, humanity has emitted another 400 billion metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, yet temperatures haven't risen in nearly 15 years. What can explain this? Storch: So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We're facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn't happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) -- a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year. SPIEGEL: Do the computer models with which physicists simulate the future climate ever show the sort of long standstill in temperature change that we're observing right now? Storch: Yes, but only extremely rarely. At my institute, we analyzed how often such a 15-year stagnation in global warming occurred in the simulations. The answer was: in under 2 percent of all the times we ran the simulation. In other words, over 98 percent of forecasts show CO2 emissions as high as we have had in recent years leading to more of a temperature increase.
    - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
      Confused: this is the hottest year on record worldwide. In what way is this 'taking a break'?
      - DanBC 11y ago