Forecasting is a art - I think the Population Bomb (and other predictions made ~ that era - Hubbard Peak Oil? Ozone holes? Space Travel? Robots?) are subject to

Forecasting is a art - I think the Population Bomb (and other predictions made ~ that era - Hubbard Peak Oil? Ozone holes? Space Travel? Robots?) are subject to the initial conditions of the prediction. Why were mothers in India having so many children compared to to those in Europe and North America? The model assumed static conditions that would continue the trend. Economics (cost of raising children, no need for extra farm help) and social factors (women's education and access to birth control) changed trends. Population growth does continue to be a problem and concern for the future - both from over-use of resources and pollution of the environment. But I think this does show an important point of not putting too much weighting into future predictions. The process of planning is very important, but the plans themselves are useless. People worry about running out of oil. While not an excuse to be wasteful, I think its likely we will move to alternative energies before supply becomes overly constrained. Mega-batteries (reported today in Japan and proposed by Tesla) could be a key to make other energies feasible, and would not have been predicted even a few years ago. The future is exciting times!