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Would you say the average Japanese today is worse off than in say, 1948? This is what's in your average PRC citizen's mind, not what the rate of growth will be

by crdb 11y ago

Would you say the average Japanese today is worse off than in say, 1948? This is what's in your average PRC citizen's mind, not what the rate of growth will be in 2040...

victorhooi 11y ago
Err, do you mean 3 years after they had two atomic bombs dropped on them, and a devastating 6-year war with nearly 3 million deaths? =) That's hardly an apples to apples comparison. I don't know if China necessarily aspires to follow Japan's trajectory - perhaps the rise, but certainly not the fall. Still, we'll see how things land.
- crdb 11y ago
  China definitely had its own WWII moment, the Great Leap Forward alone probably killed 30-40 million citizen, they executed or chased all their intellectuals out of the country... it was the "price" to pay to ensure there was no foreign influence in running the country. Both countries started from nothing, had an enormous increase in foreign direct investment (including several bubbles) which led them to pull themselves upwards at GDP growth rates of around 10% per annum for long enough to make a noticeable difference in the standard of living. Both countries are run by centralised governments with a mandarin-style meritocratic civil service pulling the strings (in Japan the keiretsu system with the MOF on top, in China the Party), and setting financial policy including invisible taxation mechanisms on the population (setting the rate on domestic deposits in China, continuous yen devaluation, tariffs and keiretsu consumer goods price-setting in Japan). The difference is that China waited until Deng Xiao Ping before changing policy and accepting growth as a path to prosperity, Japan started earlier and had a smaller population. Inspiration-wise, I'd say Lee Kuan Yew had more to do with the philosophy and strategy of what Deng Xiao Ping set in motion than any imitation of the Japanese system.

by crdb 11y ago

Would you say the average Japanese today is worse off than in say, 1948? This is what's in your average PRC citizen's mind, not what the rate of growth will be in 2040...

victorhooi 11y ago

Err, do you mean 3 years after they had two atomic bombs dropped on them, and a devastating 6-year war with nearly 3 million deaths? =) That's hardly an apples to apples comparison. I don't know if China necessarily aspires to follow Japan's trajectory - perhaps the rise, but certainly not the fall. Still, we'll see how things land.

crdb 11y ago
China definitely had its own WWII moment, the Great Leap Forward alone probably killed 30-40 million citizen, they executed or chased all their intellectuals out of the country... it was the "price" to pay to ensure there was no foreign influence in running the country. Both countries started from nothing, had an enormous increase in foreign direct investment (including several bubbles) which led them to pull themselves upwards at GDP growth rates of around 10% per annum for long enough to make a noticeable difference in the standard of living. Both countries are run by centralised governments with a mandarin-style meritocratic civil service pulling the strings (in Japan the keiretsu system with the MOF on top, in China the Party), and setting financial policy including invisible taxation mechanisms on the population (setting the rate on domestic deposits in China, continuous yen devaluation, tariffs and keiretsu consumer goods price-setting in Japan). The difference is that China waited until Deng Xiao Ping before changing policy and accepting growth as a path to prosperity, Japan started earlier and had a smaller population. Inspiration-wise, I'd say Lee Kuan Yew had more to do with the philosophy and strategy of what Deng Xiao Ping set in motion than any imitation of the Japanese system.