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The factory workers are as unlikely to be "out of work" as the female population post-the power loom replacing their daily work as thread spinners. Manufacturin

by crdb 11y ago

The factory workers are as unlikely to be "out of work" as the female population post-the power loom replacing their daily work as thread spinners. Manufacturing is already moving out of China and into cheaper countries. No economy is truly a zero sum game and China is no different. In 2 generations - even if there are some troubled waters in between - these factory workers' children will be white collar workers or even managers of American white collar workers ;) Post-war Japan was a miserable place with mass starvation, homelessness and unemployment, today it is the third largest GDP in the world with first world standard of living. There was even a bubble complete with massive foreign investment (remember what the building in Die Hard was called?) with a 95% drop in property prices in between then and now. China is currently where Japan was in the 1960s, and back then it looked pretty much the same.

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victorhooi 11y ago
Have you taken a look at Japan recently? They've been in recently for over a decade - probably close to 20 years now. As in, their economy has been going backwards, and shrinking. That, and they also have deep-seated structural problems (e.g. aging population, incredibly high-saving rates with little spending - might be "good" for individuals, but not good for the overall economy is everybody does it/)
- crdb 11y ago
  Would you say the average Japanese today is worse off than in say, 1948? This is what's in your average PRC citizen's mind, not what the rate of growth will be in 2040...
  - victorhooi 11y ago
    Err, do you mean 3 years after they had two atomic bombs dropped on them, and a devastating 6-year war with nearly 3 million deaths? =) That's hardly an apples to apples comparison. I don't know if China necessarily aspires to follow Japan's trajectory - perhaps the rise, but certainly not the fall. Still, we'll see how things land.
    - crdb 11y ago
      China definitely had its own WWII moment, the Great Leap Forward alone probably killed 30-40 million citizen, they executed or chased all their intellectuals out of the country... it was the "price" to pay to ensure there was no foreign influence in running the country. Both countries started from nothing, had an enormous increase in foreign direct investment (including several bubbles) which led them to pull themselves upwards at GDP growth rates of around 10% per annum for long enough to make a noticeable difference in the standard of living. Both countries are run by centralised governments with a mandarin-style meritocratic civil service pulling the strings (in Japan the keiretsu system with the MOF on top, in China the Party), and setting financial policy including invisible taxation mechanisms on the population (setting the rate on domestic deposits in China, continuous yen devaluation, tariffs and keiretsu consumer goods price-setting in Japan). The difference is that China waited until Deng Xiao Ping before changing policy and accepting growth as a path to prosperity, Japan started earlier and had a smaller population. Inspiration-wise, I'd say Lee Kuan Yew had more to do with the philosophy and strategy of what Deng Xiao Ping set in motion than any imitation of the Japanese system.
- tormeh 11y ago
  Their economy has been going backwards, but so has the amount of working-age adults. Productivity is up. Japan's economic problems are simply a result of its demographical problems, which in turn are the result of cultural issues. It's not at all given that the same will happen to China.
  - wisty 11y ago
    If you look at age structures, China is about 20 years behind Japan. Which doesn't bode well.

by crdb 11y ago

deleted 11y ago

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victorhooi 11y ago

Have you taken a look at Japan recently? They've been in recently for over a decade - probably close to 20 years now. As in, their economy has been going backwards, and shrinking. That, and they also have deep-seated structural problems (e.g. aging population, incredibly high-saving rates with little spending - might be "good" for individuals, but not good for the overall economy is everybody does it/)

crdb 11y ago
Would you say the average Japanese today is worse off than in say, 1948? This is what's in your average PRC citizen's mind, not what the rate of growth will be in 2040...
- victorhooi 11y ago
  Err, do you mean 3 years after they had two atomic bombs dropped on them, and a devastating 6-year war with nearly 3 million deaths? =) That's hardly an apples to apples comparison. I don't know if China necessarily aspires to follow Japan's trajectory - perhaps the rise, but certainly not the fall. Still, we'll see how things land.
  - crdb 11y ago
    China definitely had its own WWII moment, the Great Leap Forward alone probably killed 30-40 million citizen, they executed or chased all their intellectuals out of the country... it was the "price" to pay to ensure there was no foreign influence in running the country. Both countries started from nothing, had an enormous increase in foreign direct investment (including several bubbles) which led them to pull themselves upwards at GDP growth rates of around 10% per annum for long enough to make a noticeable difference in the standard of living. Both countries are run by centralised governments with a mandarin-style meritocratic civil service pulling the strings (in Japan the keiretsu system with the MOF on top, in China the Party), and setting financial policy including invisible taxation mechanisms on the population (setting the rate on domestic deposits in China, continuous yen devaluation, tariffs and keiretsu consumer goods price-setting in Japan). The difference is that China waited until Deng Xiao Ping before changing policy and accepting growth as a path to prosperity, Japan started earlier and had a smaller population. Inspiration-wise, I'd say Lee Kuan Yew had more to do with the philosophy and strategy of what Deng Xiao Ping set in motion than any imitation of the Japanese system.
tormeh 11y ago
Their economy has been going backwards, but so has the amount of working-age adults. Productivity is up. Japan's economic problems are simply a result of its demographical problems, which in turn are the result of cultural issues. It's not at all given that the same will happen to China.
- wisty 11y ago
  If you look at age structures, China is about 20 years behind Japan. Which doesn't bode well.