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If you think structural unemployment due to automation will be a problem in the US, just wait until 500 million Chinese factory workers are put out of work. A
by nugget 11y ago
If you think structural unemployment due to automation will be a problem in the US, just wait until 500 million Chinese factory workers are put out of work. A generation ago they may have been content to remain in poverty and ignorance but now, like the sans-culottes of 18th century Paris, they know what else is out there. There's a reason many wealthy Chinese desperately want to expatriate and it's not because they see peace and tranquility in their homeland's future.
- jqm 11y agoMaybe they will follow the lead of the US and create more positions in things like HR, Insurance Sales and Law. Or an ever expanding cadre of mid-level managers with the main job of playing politics against each other. If this isn't enough to attain full employment, they can then create a large number of professional meeting attender positions and mandate companies hold many more meetings.
- bduerst 11y agoChina has had a rising middle class for a while now, and just like with the agricultural automation brought on by the combustion engine, their manufacturing laborers will shift into service, skilled, technical, and professional positions.
- functional_test 11y agoDid you actually read the article? Here's the most relevant quote: > The reality, however, is that China has struggled to create enough white-collar jobs for its soaring population of college graduates. In mid-2013, the Chinese government revealed that only about half of the country’s current crop of college graduates had been able to find jobs, while more than 20 percent of the previous year’s graduates remained unemployed.
- harigov 11y agoThe keyword there is "white-collar" jobs. What parent was talking about includes other jobs.
- Chathamization 11y agoI imagine displaced blue-collar workers are looking for jobs in areas quite a bit different from displaced college-educated white-collar workers. The problem with the job market facing college graduates seeking white-collar jobs seems to be a different issues from one of automation of factories. Just like how in the US, the problems faced by liberal arts majors struggling to find work is going to be quite different from that of factory workers who lost their jobs when the production moved overseas.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- bduerst 11y agoThat's in part due to China's recent expansion into higher education, which the article ignores. Also, the services and skilled trades are not traditionally college-graduate jobs.
- muddyrivers 11y agoI think this statement is not completely accurate. First, it doesn't factor in the expansion of higher education in the last 20 years. I don't have the statistics at hand, so I will just use my hometown as an example. Exactly 20 years ago, ~120 high school students from my hometown were enrolled into colleges (including both 4- and 3-years colleges). This year, approximately ~1400 will enter colleges this fall semester. That is more than 10 times. Note the total number of people of ~18 years old hasn't been increased. On the contrary, I think it is decreased, as a result of one-child policy. Second, I think it has become common that countries, including USA, have been struggling to create enough white-collar jobs. I have both current and ex- colleagues who graduated from Ivy Leagues and are/working in customer service, support, marketing associates, etc. What they majored in colleges, like English, Classics, Psychology, etc. really doesn't help them much on looking for their first or second jobs. It is similar in China, but I wouldn't say it is worse or better there.
- kjs3 11y agoNothing you wrote shows the parent as being "not completely accurate", and you don't refute objective statistics with "I think".
- NicoJuicy 11y agoSo 500 million unemployed people will suddenly become skilled, technical and professional without education? I don't think so.
- anigbrowl 11y agoI disagree. You can automate away factory jobs faster than you can train factory workers the news kills they need to prosper in the service economy, and automation is happening in the service sector as well.
- crdb 11y agoThe factory workers are as unlikely to be "out of work" as the female population post-the power loom replacing their daily work as thread spinners. Manufacturing is already moving out of China and into cheaper countries. No economy is truly a zero sum game and China is no different. In 2 generations - even if there are some troubled waters in between - these factory workers' children will be white collar workers or even managers of American white collar workers ;) Post-war Japan was a miserable place with mass starvation, homelessness and unemployment, today it is the third largest GDP in the world with first world standard of living. There was even a bubble complete with massive foreign investment (remember what the building in Die Hard was called?) with a 95% drop in property prices in between then and now. China is currently where Japan was in the 1960s, and back then it looked pretty much the same.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- victorhooi 11y agoHave you taken a look at Japan recently? They've been in recently for over a decade - probably close to 20 years now. As in, their economy has been going backwards, and shrinking. That, and they also have deep-seated structural problems (e.g. aging population, incredibly high-saving rates with little spending - might be "good" for individuals, but not good for the overall economy is everybody does it/)
- crdb 11y agoWould you say the average Japanese today is worse off than in say, 1948? This is what's in your average PRC citizen's mind, not what the rate of growth will be in 2040...
- victorhooi 11y agoErr, do you mean 3 years after they had two atomic bombs dropped on them, and a devastating 6-year war with nearly 3 million deaths? =) That's hardly an apples to apples comparison. I don't know if China necessarily aspires to follow Japan's trajectory - perhaps the rise, but certainly not the fall. Still, we'll see how things land.
- qyv 11y agoPerhaps the technological singularity that we end up facing is not one of AI but one of nation-scale automation?
- deelowe 11y agoI would phrase it as mechanization becomes a better investment than human capital. It's the tipping point where humans, more often than not, no longer provide value. I can't help but feel we are VERY close.
- nugget 11y agoWhen this tipping is reached then society may reorganize itself around concepts like basic income and so forth. It seems like a safe bet that a single, cohesive society could survive this transition without a huge amount of chaos. But what happens when you have hundreds of countries with opposing interests who all hit this wall at about the same time?
- meddlepal 11y agoI really doubt those reforms will be quick and or painless. It's easy to say society will reorganize around those concepts but you're probably talking decades of struggle to get those reforms.
- deelowe 11y agoMaybe, but I suspect the change will happen so fast that we won't be able to adjust in time. We've got a few new auto plants that were either just built or are soon to be built near where I live. First off, they are almost completely automated these days. Secondly, it only takes a couple of years to get one built. Most of that is politics and negotiations. When the new plant is built, the old one is mothballed. Point is, it happens VERY quickly. Now, in the grand scheme of things, auto manufacturing is a relatively small industry in terms of labor force. What happens when this transition happens to the logistics industry, which is one of the top employers globally? Can we adapt quickly enough if land (including farming), sea, and possibly air are all automated within a decade? I'm not sure.
- anthony_barker 11y agoPeter Drucker forecasted this 30 years ago. Agriculture went from 50% -> 2% of the workforce. Same is happening with Manufacturing. The main issue is training.