This is very dangerous advice indeed. You got lucky, you got out in 2007: for every person like you, there are many more who thought they had the answer too (an

This is very dangerous advice indeed. You got lucky, you got out in 2007: for every person like you, there are many more who thought they had the answer too (and knew when to get out) and did so too late. This is the irrational exuberance of markets, as documented in every cycle in history. Don't read Mises.org, or at least not only. Read John Kenneth Galbraith's work: "A Short History of Financial Euphoria", "The Great Crash". Read Michael Lewis' work: "Boomerang", "The Big Short". Read even the pop economics works that expand on how people think, versus how they act: "Nudge", "Thinking: Fast and Slow". Read Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise", and you'll see that predicting the market has improved no more than earthquakes has. There is no "physics" of the market, there are no silver bullets and predictors who understand everything will happen. If those people existed and acted on their bets, they would be wealthy beyond reason. Skip "The Black Swan", and go straight for "Antifragile". It's Taleb's opus, according to him, but it describes the error in trying to make these predictions. They're very fragile. Your 2007 "pulling out of the market" could have been brilliance or folly, and you just happened to get lucky. But don't take my word for it, take this quote by Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." No one can predict the future, least of all the irrational herd mentality of the market. Anyone who says they can, or they have a formula, or that they know "when to pull out of the market" is a charlatan or lucky, or both.