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The claim of the OP is that "mobile changes everything". The OP frequently compares with PCs. My point is that mobile does not change everything, and in parti

by graycat 11y ago

The claim of the OP is that "mobile changes everything". The OP frequently compares with PCs. My point is that mobile does not change everything, and in particular does not replace PCs. I illustrated with examples I know, my own usage. E.g., I am a very heavy user of computing -- no one with only 24 hours a day can expect to be a heavier user. Still, personally I have no use for mobile devices at all. None. Zip, zilch, zero. For me personally, mobile changes nothing. Can't use it. Don't want it. No sale. "Mobile changes everything"? Not for me! Mobile doesn't replace food, clothing, shelter, cars, medical care -- or PCs. More generally, for a user interface, there are a lot of advantages to just highly universal, device independent HTTP, HTML, CSS, and JavaScript. As a user interface, apps are a really big step down -- not universal, device dependent, can't save, access, reuse the data, get more security problems, etc. Of course it's not about me -- I just used my examples and thinking. You are welcome to give up your PC if you want -- I'm keeping my PC, and at least for now don't want a smartphone. I intend to buy at least two new PCs -- I don't want a smartphone around even for free. In particular, while A16Z is all excited about mobile changes everything, for my own usage I care less than 0.00 about anything mobile. For my business, my mobile strategy is just to have really simple Web pages. The A16Z data presentation is from okay up to quite nice, but their conclusions from their data are junk. A16Z is just looking for attention, and are passing out nonsense. Maybe with such attention they hope to get deal flow. So, maybe the hint is: "Entrepreneurs, send us your mobile business plans -- we're eager to write early stage equity funding checks for such." Likely nonsense: No doubt among what else hasn't changed are VCs' criteria for writing early stage checks -- traction significant and growing rapidly for a market and a product for that market that might quickly be worth $1 billion and where the entrepreneurs are desperate for cash and to sign a bad business deal. Further, really want people thinking such nonsense on your BoD? I want to debunk their nonsense. Just why they pass out such nonsense I don't know, but a guess is that they believe that it will help them with their LPs. We're talking some really gullible LPs.

prawn 11y ago
But you're one example in a sea of mobile users. The presentation was using real data and citing sources.
- graycat 11y ago
  But the data and sources, as good as they were, and interesting, even astounding, didn't rationally support their claim that "Mobile changes everything". Moreover, their frequent comparisons with PCs flop: So far mobile just will not do much to replace PCs. The world has a lot of tacos, too, and they won't replace PCs either. Broadly mobile is mostly just a new product (collection of new products, new product category), does replace PCs for some relatively light work formerly done on PCs, has some new functionality and uses from being mobile, having GPS and a camera, etc., but, still, just does not yet replace PCs, and the data and sources do not so establish. For any good theory, need some examples, and I offered mine. Basically, for any really heavy PC user, mobile is not a replacement.
  - prawn 11y ago
    But mobile is changing everything. I don't have a fixed phone in my house, I use my mobile phone. I don't use one of the two expensive DSLRs in my house, I use my phone. In two months recently in the US, I never hailed a cab, but used an app to hail and track a car. I read books on my phone, I edit photos on my phone, I track site analytics and app sales on my phone, I play games on my phone, I navigate using maps on my phone, I record notes on my phone. I switched from a desktop to a laptop three machines and 10+ years ago. Never considered buying a desktop since. Modern mobile devices (Surface-style tablet/laptop hybrids) are very capable these days and not far away from the MBP I use. Once phone-form-factor devices are more powerful and we have virtual displays and a keyboard replacement, the needle will shift further. That level of capability will cover almost everyone who uses a computer for work. Don't get me wrong, I don't work on my phone. I feel cramped with less than three monitors. I like to spread out. But I also like to scrawl notes pencil on paper, and that doesn't mean that computers haven't taken over the offices of decades past. And there's no denying that the mobile form factor - a computer that you carry around with you easily - is dominating and will go further. Someone who doesn't have a use one will be a blip.
    - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
      Maybe all those are possible mobile; but just not very good. Edit a photo? For real? With one finger? Books one paragraph at a time? That's gotta be slow. Games - not immersive 3d ones, maybe dumb puzzle games or side-scrollers with a tiny part of the screen visible at one time. And navigation is very hard on a phone - turn-by-turn is the norm, which totally blows any global awareness and turns you into a cog. I can't see enough map on a phone to even begin to plan a route. I'm heavily biased - I can't exist without 2 large screens, mouse and keyboard for what I use a computer for. But from my point of view every attempt to use a mobile device ends in frustration and despair - they are so slow, such a tiny bandwidth for interaction, information comes in droplets. I'm unwilling to dumb myself down to their level.
wvenable 11y ago
> My point is that mobile does not change everything, and in particular does not replace PCs. The point is, for a vast majority of users, it does replace PC's for them. They were never writing software or doing photoshop. They were surfing the web, buying stuff, and playing solitaire. Those people can do that, and so much more, on their mobile phones. > Still, personally I have no use for mobile devices at all. You are in the minority and you should just accept that.

by graycat 11y ago

prawn 11y ago

But you're one example in a sea of mobile users. The presentation was using real data and citing sources.

graycat 11y ago
But the data and sources, as good as they were, and interesting, even astounding, didn't rationally support their claim that "Mobile changes everything". Moreover, their frequent comparisons with PCs flop: So far mobile just will not do much to replace PCs. The world has a lot of tacos, too, and they won't replace PCs either. Broadly mobile is mostly just a new product (collection of new products, new product category), does replace PCs for some relatively light work formerly done on PCs, has some new functionality and uses from being mobile, having GPS and a camera, etc., but, still, just does not yet replace PCs, and the data and sources do not so establish. For any good theory, need some examples, and I offered mine. Basically, for any really heavy PC user, mobile is not a replacement.
- prawn 11y ago
  But mobile is changing everything. I don't have a fixed phone in my house, I use my mobile phone. I don't use one of the two expensive DSLRs in my house, I use my phone. In two months recently in the US, I never hailed a cab, but used an app to hail and track a car. I read books on my phone, I edit photos on my phone, I track site analytics and app sales on my phone, I play games on my phone, I navigate using maps on my phone, I record notes on my phone. I switched from a desktop to a laptop three machines and 10+ years ago. Never considered buying a desktop since. Modern mobile devices (Surface-style tablet/laptop hybrids) are very capable these days and not far away from the MBP I use. Once phone-form-factor devices are more powerful and we have virtual displays and a keyboard replacement, the needle will shift further. That level of capability will cover almost everyone who uses a computer for work. Don't get me wrong, I don't work on my phone. I feel cramped with less than three monitors. I like to spread out. But I also like to scrawl notes pencil on paper, and that doesn't mean that computers haven't taken over the offices of decades past. And there's no denying that the mobile form factor - a computer that you carry around with you easily - is dominating and will go further. Someone who doesn't have a use one will be a blip.
  - JoeAltmaier 11y ago
    Maybe all those are possible mobile; but just not very good. Edit a photo? For real? With one finger? Books one paragraph at a time? That's gotta be slow. Games - not immersive 3d ones, maybe dumb puzzle games or side-scrollers with a tiny part of the screen visible at one time. And navigation is very hard on a phone - turn-by-turn is the norm, which totally blows any global awareness and turns you into a cog. I can't see enough map on a phone to even begin to plan a route. I'm heavily biased - I can't exist without 2 large screens, mouse and keyboard for what I use a computer for. But from my point of view every attempt to use a mobile device ends in frustration and despair - they are so slow, such a tiny bandwidth for interaction, information comes in droplets. I'm unwilling to dumb myself down to their level.

wvenable 11y ago

> My point is that mobile does not change everything, and in particular does not replace PCs. The point is, for a vast majority of users, it does replace PC's for them. They were never writing software or doing photoshop. They were surfing the web, buying stuff, and playing solitaire. Those people can do that, and so much more, on their mobile phones. > Still, personally I have no use for mobile devices at all. You are in the minority and you should just accept that.