I am not sure how either of you are defining highly likely or unlikely. Have you been in the shoes of the people making the decisions? Have you considered the v

I am not sure how either of you are defining highly likely or unlikely. Have you been in the shoes of the people making the decisions? Have you considered the varying inputs that define the statistical likelihood of the result? I recommend checking out http://rationality.org/workshops/ http://rationality.org/workshops/ and perhaps reading http://www.yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes http://www.yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes