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My understanding is the rest of the pigs are, relative to Greece, much more viable [...] This explains why today, after the financial crisis of 2007/08, it hap
by nhaehnle 11y ago
My understanding is the rest of the pigs are, relative to Greece, much more viable [...]
This explains why today, after the financial crisis of 2007/08, it happens to be Greece in this miserable situation. Greece was the weakest link of Euro countries.
However, imagine a world in which there is a precedent for a Euro exit, and another recession hits. Big funds that have money tied in government bonds will want to exit bonds of weaker countries out of fear that the Greek story repeats.
This then creates the same self-fulfilling vicious cycle that hit Greece: as creditors move elsewhere, interest rates for the weakest countries increase, which worsens those countries' fiscal position, which makes more creditors leave, etc.
In such a situation, it is easy for the weakest link to be pushed over the brink.
Bailing Greece out would be trowing good money after bad.
Keep in mind that Greece isn't actually asking for more money for Greece. The Greek government was running a primary surplus for some time, and is perhaps even running one today, or at least close to it. The only reason for the Greek government to be in deficit is the interest payment, which means that all money that is being "thrown at Greece" actually ends up abroad in creditor countries!