4 ms·

> a stumbling blindness that makes real disaster more likely I think as long as there is a party at the table with an interest at stability and that still has

by drcode 11y ago

> a stumbling blindness that makes real disaster more likely I think as long as there is a party at the table with an interest at stability and that still has deep pockets (Germany) the chance of a crisis is close to 0%. The Greeks right now have little incentive to make real "hard choices" because they know at the 11th hour, no matter how much Germany protests, there is still an almost unlimited supply of money available to bail them out and give them a bridge loan for yet another year. I will be much more worried in some future year if/when Germany lands in a deep recession, THAT is the time when disaster can happen. THAT is when this state of affairs will stop being sustainable.

panarky 11y ago
You write as if Greece has made no real "hard choices". FTFA: The public sector’s structural deficit turned into a surplus on the back of a ‘world record beating’ 20% adjustment Wages fell by 37% Pensions were reduced by up to 48% State employment diminished by 30% Consumer spending was curtailed by 33% Even the nation’s chronic current account deficit dropped by 16%. The whole point of Varoufakis publishing this on his own blog is because the creditors and the media assume that feckless Greece has done nothing but soak up repeated bailouts. Nothing could be further from the truth. The truth is that Greece took the medicine that the creditors prescribed, and it made the patient sicker. They shrunk the economy more than any other nation in peacetime. That makes it even harder to pay back the impossible sums owed.
- drcode 11y ago
  I should clarify that by "hard choices" I mean giving up control of their fiscal matters entirely to the European Union (Similar to how US states function.) This has nothing to do with cutting more pensions. Cutting pensions is an easy choice, in comparison (and they're still misleading the extent of those in TFA by saying "up to 48%".)
  - TazeTSchnitzel 11y ago
    > I should clarify that by "hard choices" I mean giving up control of their fiscal matters to the European Union Ceding sovereignty to an undemocratic body. Wonderful.
    - drcode 11y ago
      Well, they ceded the control of their currency to the EU, and I think it's clear that isn't sustainable without more fiscal unity. It's too late to complain now that they have adopted a currency that no longer under the control of their democratically elected leaders. So the only options remaining for Greece, long term, are to either cede fiscal control as well, or go their own separate way again (grexit) with their own currency. (But as I said, none of this matter as long as Germany is willing to continue underwriting their debt, which they will continue to do for years, most likely... but not forever.)
      - cwyers 11y ago
        Well, why is Germany underwriting their debt? It's not out of the goodness of their heart. It's because Germany didn't want a Greek default to end up giving a haircut to lenders in Euro-denominated sovereign debt. Greece isn't the only country that's "ceded the control of their currency to the EU," and fiscal unity that requires that the Greeks (and the other countries in financial distress like Spain and Italy and Portugal) give up control but doesn't ask countries like Germany and France to do the same isn't really unity, it's exploitation.
        drcode 11y ago
        > but doesn't ask countries like Germany and France to do the same isn't really unity, it's exploitation. Yes, if it ever happens that Germany and France need their economy bailed out in the future they should also have to give up some autonomy.
    - afarrell 11y ago
      I thought the EU had a parliament elected by the people of all the various constituencies of Europe.
  - nhaehnle 11y ago
    This is a very interesting point. I also believe that a proper fiscal structure for the Euro area is the only way for the Euro to survive long term. This means a Euro government, Euro area taxes, Euro area social systems, etc. Is this a hard choice? Actually, I suspect that the choice isn't hard at all for Greece. I imagine that the Greek people would be among the easiest to convince of such a change, if it happened in a fair way where all countries are treated equally. If Greece were not treated like a vasal state, but instead simply as one of many countries that together give up some rights to a central democractic Euro government, that might well be a price that the Greek people are willing to pay for recovery within the Euro. But good luck trying to get the Germans and other northern countries to agree to something like that.
    - drcode 11y ago
      Yeah, I agree that type of "symmetrical" arrangement will never happen. I'm surmising they will either have to come to a one-sided arrangement where fiscal autonomy varies amongst different countries, or Greece (and others) will have to leave the union eventually.
- acveilleux 11y ago
  The "fucking article" is written by Greece's Finance Minister. His bio at the bottom of the blog post doesn't mention that subtle point that not only is he affected as a Greek, he actually has a horse in the race.
  - cwyers 11y ago
    ...you, uh, you think he writes blog posts under the assumption that people won't realize he's the Greek finance minister?

by drcode 11y ago

panarky 11y ago

You write as if Greece has made no real "hard choices". FTFA: The public sector’s structural deficit turned into a surplus on the back of a ‘world record beating’ 20% adjustment Wages fell by 37% Pensions were reduced by up to 48% State employment diminished by 30% Consumer spending was curtailed by 33% Even the nation’s chronic current account deficit dropped by 16%. The whole point of Varoufakis publishing this on his own blog is because the creditors and the media assume that feckless Greece has done nothing but soak up repeated bailouts. Nothing could be further from the truth. The truth is that Greece took the medicine that the creditors prescribed, and it made the patient sicker. They shrunk the economy more than any other nation in peacetime. That makes it even harder to pay back the impossible sums owed.

drcode 11y ago
I should clarify that by "hard choices" I mean giving up control of their fiscal matters entirely to the European Union (Similar to how US states function.) This has nothing to do with cutting more pensions. Cutting pensions is an easy choice, in comparison (and they're still misleading the extent of those in TFA by saying "up to 48%".)
- TazeTSchnitzel 11y ago
  > I should clarify that by "hard choices" I mean giving up control of their fiscal matters to the European Union Ceding sovereignty to an undemocratic body. Wonderful.
  - drcode 11y ago
    Well, they ceded the control of their currency to the EU, and I think it's clear that isn't sustainable without more fiscal unity. It's too late to complain now that they have adopted a currency that no longer under the control of their democratically elected leaders. So the only options remaining for Greece, long term, are to either cede fiscal control as well, or go their own separate way again (grexit) with their own currency. (But as I said, none of this matter as long as Germany is willing to continue underwriting their debt, which they will continue to do for years, most likely... but not forever.)
    - cwyers 11y ago
      Well, why is Germany underwriting their debt? It's not out of the goodness of their heart. It's because Germany didn't want a Greek default to end up giving a haircut to lenders in Euro-denominated sovereign debt. Greece isn't the only country that's "ceded the control of their currency to the EU," and fiscal unity that requires that the Greeks (and the other countries in financial distress like Spain and Italy and Portugal) give up control but doesn't ask countries like Germany and France to do the same isn't really unity, it's exploitation.
      - drcode 11y ago
        > but doesn't ask countries like Germany and France to do the same isn't really unity, it's exploitation. Yes, if it ever happens that Germany and France need their economy bailed out in the future they should also have to give up some autonomy.
  - afarrell 11y ago
    I thought the EU had a parliament elected by the people of all the various constituencies of Europe.
- nhaehnle 11y ago
  This is a very interesting point. I also believe that a proper fiscal structure for the Euro area is the only way for the Euro to survive long term. This means a Euro government, Euro area taxes, Euro area social systems, etc. Is this a hard choice? Actually, I suspect that the choice isn't hard at all for Greece. I imagine that the Greek people would be among the easiest to convince of such a change, if it happened in a fair way where all countries are treated equally. If Greece were not treated like a vasal state, but instead simply as one of many countries that together give up some rights to a central democractic Euro government, that might well be a price that the Greek people are willing to pay for recovery within the Euro. But good luck trying to get the Germans and other northern countries to agree to something like that.
  - drcode 11y ago
    Yeah, I agree that type of "symmetrical" arrangement will never happen. I'm surmising they will either have to come to a one-sided arrangement where fiscal autonomy varies amongst different countries, or Greece (and others) will have to leave the union eventually.
acveilleux 11y ago
The "fucking article" is written by Greece's Finance Minister. His bio at the bottom of the blog post doesn't mention that subtle point that not only is he affected as a Greek, he actually has a horse in the race.
- cwyers 11y ago
  ...you, uh, you think he writes blog posts under the assumption that people won't realize he's the Greek finance minister?