5 ms·

FWIW, my guess was at the 98th percentile, relatively close to the data (on the other hand, I was really bad at guessing the position of the ball in yesterday's

by pygy_ 11y ago

FWIW, my guess was at the 98th percentile, relatively close to the data (on the other hand, I was really bad at guessing the position of the ball in yesterday's football/soccer test). The median guess probably suffers from a "connect the dots" bias, going from (0,0) to (100,100) through the suggested point. Seeing how smooth the data is, it results from a large sample, and the measurements are objective, I fail to see how they could have gotten them wrong.

phlyingpenguin 11y ago
> (on the other hand, I was really bad at guessing the position of the ball in yesterday's football/soccer test Sounds interesting, but I seemed to have both missed that and am not noticing anything like it. Got a link?
- beambot 11y ago
  GP is being hyperbolic. He's saying that, "Just because you can't guess the trend in the data (eg. the track of a soccer ball in yesterday's match) doesn't mean that something is wrong with the data; you often need to double-check both your hypothesis and your data. And in this case your hypothesis was probably at fault due to inherent bias rather than inaccuracies in the data."
  - maxerickson 11y ago
    No, literal: http://projects.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/worldcup/spot-the-ball/2015/06/19 http://projects.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/worldcup/spot...
    - beambot 11y ago
      HA! LoL. I stand corrected. ;)
- pygy_ 11y ago
  See here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9747102 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9747102