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A bit off topic, but I find what the 'geeks' are producing to be the most interesting part of this article. When the next financial mega-crisis erupts (note - f
by jsm386 17y ago
A bit off topic, but I find what the 'geeks' are producing to be the most interesting part of this article. When the next financial mega-crisis erupts (note - financial, not economic - that part comes next), perhaps this will be the reason:
John Malitzis, vice president of market surveillance at the New York Stock Exchange's oversight body, told a conference in September that he has seen examples, both in U.S. markets and elsewhere, of computer algorithms malfunctioning. He calls them "algos gone wild."
Couple 'algos gone wild' with the fact that 60% of trades (article's figure) are HFT algo trades and you have the potential for absolute chaos in the markets. Many of the algorithms mimic each other (crowding into the same trades). Some algos are programmed to essentially hunt down other programs and exploit things they expect them to do.
As the article states, the high frequency traders have moved beyond equities into options. Imagine if we see a global cap and trade scheme implemented, with a marketplace for carbon credits. Could algos 'gone wild' drive the price of carbon credits to some absurd extreme (think the speculation-fueled oil bubble in summer 08, but in reverse) that dramatically influences how much CO2 our collective industries emit?
- pwnstigator 17y agoI don't think there's more risk of "algos gone wild" than there is of manipulation and malevolence, as there has been forever. Software bugs combined with human error are a source of danger though, such as in the infamous Japanese trading disaster (someone transposed the size-- 1-- and price-- ~600000 yen-- on a short-sell of an IPO, effectively giving away more shares than existed). The fail was not so much that the clerk put in a bad order, but that the exchange software wouldn't let the firm cancel it, leaving them to eat $225m in losses.
- tlrobinson 17y agoFor those who are curious: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mizuho_Securities http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mizuho_Securities http://www.physorg.com/news8901.html http://www.physorg.com/news8901.html But I thought exchanges could retroactively cancel trades in some cases?