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This entire article is premised on flawed ideas. First, it assumes that traditional cash flow models of publicly-traded companies are the appropriate measure f
by beat 11y ago
This entire article is premised on flawed ideas.
First, it assumes that traditional cash flow models of publicly-traded companies are the appropriate measure for startup investment. But seed and VC investors aren't looking for current revenue - they're looking for potential revenue. They're gambling, and quite explicitly so. Most companies will fail to deliver the dream. Investors know this, which is why they limit their exposure in this high-risk field to what they can afford to lose.
Second, it assumes that investors are not savvy, and are easily manipulated by bogus numbers. Every decent investor I've seen has a pretty good bullshit detector. It's one thing to sell them a dream, it's another to sell them snake oil. And if you try to sell snake oil, you'll be passed over in favor of other companies with plausible stories.
- rockinghigh 11y agoValuation models for publicly-traded companies do not use current earnings, they use forward looking indicators based on analysts' estimates like earnings forecast, earnings growth and target price. This is why companies like Amazon, Tesla or Linkedin have such high current price to current earnings ratios. The difference with startups is that future earnings are harder to predict. However, the valuation models should be the same once you've predicted future earnings.