3 ms·
my 2c on that list. 1): It's questionable whether or not Uber has a network effect that sustains it as a leader in any market. The taxi industry is catching up,
by lancewiggs 11y ago
my 2c on that list.
1): It's questionable whether or not Uber has a network effect that sustains it as a leader in any market. The taxi industry is catching up, and so is regulation, and I suspect that some markets will become very competitive. This is not a defendable monopoly.
2): Dropbox is under attack from free/cheaper equivalents but defending well. It is still the easiest to use and have an incumbency advantage, but has made a few too many missteps (photos) to be comfortable.
3): AirBnB is under attack from booking.com and the like, but is a pleasantly strong business for now.
4), 5) and 6) all are fashion (or nightclub) businesses where the crowds happen to be, and the more they try to monetise the more they upset the crowd. Crowds can leave at any time.
7) Square face competition from Apple Pay and the like for payments, and payments is where they make their money. Out of the USA payment systems are far more advanced.
8) Judgement day will come for Apple when they successively fail to launch things that have an edge on everyone else, and as with RIM the decline could be fast. For now they are well ahead but my own pick is that Huawei will become the giant to beat.
9) Google is fat and happy, but their core revenue base is advertising, and when crashes arrive advertising falls.
10) Microsoft is resurgent, and I believe on the early steps of a long term turnaround program. The switch to the cloud means we are less reliant on any particular OS but Microsoft Office is dominant for business.
- fivedogit 11y agoSmart analysis. I object to your classification of Twitter, though. I was originally a Twitter skeptic, but the truth is, they've built a central hub where Snoop Dogg, the Pope, POTUS and @pmarca all converse. Very powerful. They need to do more, but they own more than a fad, IMO. I especially agree on Apple. What Microsoft has done recently is great. I hated them with the passion of a thousand suns when I was in college, but Satya seems to get it. He knows that if you put out a browser that causes devs around the globe to have to program exceptions because it doesn't behave like the others, they will hate you for it. (Doubly. Once for technical reasons and again for acting like a monopolistic ass.) And what you gained from some niche technical benefit, you've lost 1000x in goodwill and, ultimately, bad PR. I'm actually rooting for them now. It's crazy.
- mamcx 11y ago8) Is the worse analysis you pick on ;) Apple have a strong position. If google/ms survive, then apple will.... Plus, Apple already bite the dust, almost lethally. Now they have enough cash to survive for long, and enough goodwill, marketshare, etc to keep them afloat.. Look, if MS have survived for so long being the evil INC, and hated far more than Apple..
- dylanjermiah 11y agoAnyone have any data on Dropbox or Square? I have an odd assumption that they're not doing well, with no evidence.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]