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I imagine that if the alleged bubble burst, VC funded startups and their immediate environment would be where the most damage was/is. A lot of startups would ju
by netcan 11y ago
I imagine that if the alleged bubble burst, VC funded startups and their immediate environment would be where the most damage was/is. A lot of startups would just fail. Employees would lose their jobs and options/shares would be wiped out. Even otherwise healthy startups could suffer or fail from the mess. If a company is worth $200m one day and $40m the next, all sorts of bad things can happen even if they are profitable.
Beyond the immediate vicinity of VC backed startup land I don't think the fallout would be very severe. VC funded startups are not really a very big employers in the scheme of things. VC as an asset class isn't a big one either. Since VC investments are expected to be high risk, most end user investors allocate only a small portion of their portfolio to the class. It is expected to be high risk and on the whole it is considered very irresponsible to depend on its success. Even startup employees do not generally treat their jobs as highly secure, so at least psychologically they are prepared to one day find themselves looking elsewhere. They are also generally employable in the much large technology fields that are not directly related to VC money.
For an analogy think of the hypothetical bitcoin bubble bursting. Some bitcoin centric businesses would go bust. Some gamblers would too. But I imagine that most people holding large amounts are aware of the risk, they haven't bet the house on it.
I think the "systemic" impact would be minimal. The real dangerous bubbles are asset classes like real estate, bonds, blue chip shares and those esoteric but enormous "instruments" and securities. These are expected to be reliable and safe so money that must not disappear goes into them. They are also much bigger.
I guess you never really know unless it happens, but I doubt the kinds of levers that make big bubbles so bad are present here. A lender wouldn't/shouldn't be loaning out money to be invested in VC, so I don't think you would have the kind of domino effects that make crashes spread.
If it was severe and scary enough with big name "startups" going under, tech stock prices might dip. That might be a good time to buy. I can't see much of a relevance of a VC crash to Google, FB or MSFT's medium term prospects.
EDIT: One more - Since VC is a "professionals only" class of investment, we are not likely to see middle class people directly impacted. This means that macro-demand shouldn't be effected much either, except directly by employees losign their jobs and startups no longer consuming whatever they consume.