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Charming story -- but there's plenty of controversy that comes with it. Some Canadian mathematicians ran their own analysis in 2014 and published it in Chance m
by GCA10 11y ago
Charming story -- but there's plenty of controversy that comes with it. Some Canadian mathematicians ran their own analysis in 2014 and published it in Chance magazine, arguing that Johnson's winning prospects weren't nearly good enough under the terms described for him to have been likely to have achieved such scores. The full article is behind a $48 paywall, but here's a link to the start of it: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09332480.2014.890867 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09332480.2014.890...
Meanwhile, Elliot Jacobson, a guy with his own academic pedigree (U of Arizona Ph.D. in math; former Ohio University asst/assocmath professor) has published a defense of Johnson's claims and a counter-rebuttal to the Canadians. Jacobson now runs a gambling-consulting firm. His rebuttal is here:
http://apheat.net/2014/03/25/fact-checking-an-article-on-donald-johnson-in-chance-magazine/ http://apheat.net/2014/03/25/fact-checking-an-article-on-don...
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- Falcon9 11y agoJacobson's rebuttal is perhaps more fascinating than the Atlantic article, though I think the context of the article is necessary. Details such as: Johnson would coax two or three dealer errors per day in play, valued at +$200,000 per day; or that the Canadian mathematicians took some strange shortcuts in modelling or running simulations.
- ikeboy 11y agoHow do you coax a dealer error?
- _Eliot_Jacobson 11y agoJohnson was very aggressive and belligerent at the table. He made the dealers and pit nervous and agitated. For example, he would sometimes half-way signal his intention and if the result was not to his liking, dispute that he had asked for a hit card. He would pound the table and shout. And the casinos were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he was such a high-roller.
- herbig 11y agoYeah, I'm skeptical of this. I saw a short documentary on Netflix about him which just felt like a long commercial ad. I wouldn't be surprised if the casinos fabricated something like this and paid him to create this "controversy".
- _Eliot_Jacobson 11y agoDon Johnson did exactly what he said he did. And more.