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I am not sure I understand this. He never actually gained an edge on the house and the discount never actually came into play from what I can tell. I did not
by havko 11y ago
I am not sure I understand this. He never actually gained an edge on the house and the discount never actually came into play from what I can tell. I did not think that there was a way to predict variance, though admittedly I know little about this.
- savanaly 11y agoHis expected outcome was in his favor because he whittled the house edge down to nearly even odds, and he had loss protection of 20%. But you're right that that didn't come into play because the actual outcome happened to be in his favor and ballooned out of control thanks to a random walk.
- ikeboy 11y agoYou should definitely read http://apheat.net/2014/03/25/fact-checking-an-article-on-donald-johnson-in-chance-magazine/ http://apheat.net/2014/03/25/fact-checking-an-article-on-don... linked by another comment. It did come into effect on other days, so even though he lost a bunch on some days, he made more than that on other days.
- havko 11y agoThanks, couldn't read that one earlier(blocked at work). I think I am starting to get it, But I still feel like all the facts were never presented. Basically, it was a 50/50 game except he had a 20 percent cushion on losses. You would think a cool million would at least get you single deck black jack opposed to 6 deck.