3 ms·

> Do you really believe they're worth more than the entire Taxi industry? Uber is in 58 countries, and is expanding to more countries. Are you saying the comb

by mortehu 11y ago

> Do you really believe they're worth more than the entire Taxi industry? Uber is in 58 countries, and is expanding to more countries. Are you saying the combined value of the taxi industry in those countries is less than 50 billion?

zzalpha 11y ago
I'm saying Uber is currently but a fraction of the value of the taxi industry it's trying to displace. You may not realize this, particularly if you don't travel outside the US very much, but Uber's success outside the US is far more restricted than it is in the US (and even within the US it's variable). They're likely to encounter more and more regulatory resistance (good luck getting an UberPop in Belgium, for example), which will significantly curtail growth. On top of that, the brutal reality is that Uber could be easily replaced, either by an individual international competitor or competitors within individual markets who can better navigate the local regulatory environment. After all, look at how products like Line seem to have sprung out of nowhere to challenge the Facebooks and so forth of the world. And I guarantee you, the taxi industry will adjust while holding the advantage of being an incumbent monopoly. Uber could be displaced overnight given the right conditions. So, no, I'm entirely unimpressed by that "58 countries" claim and believe Uber is significantly overvalued at this time.
- waterlesscloud 11y ago
  Uber isn't just trying to replace the taxi industry. They're aiming much higher than that. They're aiming to replace all driving of all sorts. Personal. Logistics. Everything involving road-based vehicles. They may not succeed, and I do think they're valued too highly. But based on the risk factors in their plan, not based on the scale of one small market segment they're aiming for.

3 ms·

> Do you really believe they're worth more than the entire Taxi industry? Uber is in 58 countries, and is expanding to more countries. Are you saying the comb

by mortehu 11y ago

zzalpha 11y ago
I'm saying Uber is currently but a fraction of the value of the taxi industry it's trying to displace. You may not realize this, particularly if you don't travel outside the US very much, but Uber's success outside the US is far more restricted than it is in the US (and even within the US it's variable). They're likely to encounter more and more regulatory resistance (good luck getting an UberPop in Belgium, for example), which will significantly curtail growth. On top of that, the brutal reality is that Uber could be easily replaced, either by an individual international competitor or competitors within individual markets who can better navigate the local regulatory environment. After all, look at how products like Line seem to have sprung out of nowhere to challenge the Facebooks and so forth of the world. And I guarantee you, the taxi industry will adjust while holding the advantage of being an incumbent monopoly. Uber could be displaced overnight given the right conditions. So, no, I'm entirely unimpressed by that "58 countries" claim and believe Uber is significantly overvalued at this time.
- waterlesscloud 11y ago
  Uber isn't just trying to replace the taxi industry. They're aiming much higher than that. They're aiming to replace all driving of all sorts. Personal. Logistics. Everything involving road-based vehicles. They may not succeed, and I do think they're valued too highly. But based on the risk factors in their plan, not based on the scale of one small market segment they're aiming for.