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2010: Sorry, But This "Tech Bubble 2.0" Talk Is Ridiculous http://www.businessinsider.com/one-big-reason-were-not-in-tech-bubble-20-2010-12 http://www.businessi

by swang 11y ago

2010: Sorry, But This "Tech Bubble 2.0" Talk Is Ridiculous http://www.businessinsider.com/one-big-reason-were-not-in-tech-bubble-20-2010-12 http://www.businessinsider.com/one-big-reason-were-not-in-te... 2011: 11 Crazy Signs This Really Is A Tech "Bubble" http://www.businessinsider.com/signs-of-tech-bubble-2011-8 http://www.businessinsider.com/signs-of-tech-bubble-2011-8 2012: A Non-Tech Person's Guide To The Tech Bubble—And Why There ISN'T A Tech Bubble http://www.businessinsider.com/why-there-is-no-tech-bubble-2012-5 http://www.businessinsider.com/why-there-is-no-tech-bubble-2... 2013: Here's The Evidence That The Tech Sector Is In A Massive Bubble http://www.businessinsider.com/evidence-that-tech-sector-is-in-a-bubble-2013-11 http://www.businessinsider.com/evidence-that-tech-sector-is-... 2014: Here's The Evidence That The Tech Bubble Is About To Burst http://www.businessinsider.com/evidence-that-tech-bubble-is-at-a-peak-2014-10 http://www.businessinsider.com/evidence-that-tech-bubble-is-... Have we reached peak, "Tech Bubble" talk yet? PS. those last 2 articles were written by the same person basically regurgitating the same talking points, but just 1 year later.

akshatpradhan 11y ago
All the URLs come from Business Insider. That's kind of like John Stewart's point how the News Media says year after year that this is the worst Allergy Season ever. Its the worst allergy season every year no matter what because pollen count increases every year no matter what.
- TheBeardKing 11y ago
  Why do pollen counts increase every year? Global temperatures don't rise every year.
  - dragonwriter 11y ago
    If the rising pollen counts are part of a process that is driven by the overall global temperature trend but which is relatively insensitive to annual variation around that trend, such that the output is smoothed compared to the input, that would produce the pollen counts rising every year with a rising global temperature trend, even if global temperatures don't rise every year. One particular reason this might be the case is if the process driving the increased pollen count is a reaction to global temperature (or some other more direct product of global temperature) that moves to slowly compared to the average rate of global temperature change to ever reach an equilibrium point with the current global temperature, so that its always trailing well below what it would be at the current global temperature if that temperature were a long-term sustained average.
    - akshatpradhan 11y ago
      Could you ELI5?
- albertoleal 11y ago
  > ... because pollen count increases every year no matter what. Is this actually true?
sjm-lbm 11y ago
Seems pretty standard. Economists are usually very good at predicting 11 out of 4 recessions/bubbles ending/whatever.
austenallred 11y ago
2009: OK you're right, this is a bubble http://blog.jedchristiansen.com/pmarcaarchive/ok-youre-right-it-is-a-bubble/ http://blog.jedchristiansen.com/pmarcaarchive/ok-youre-right...
themeek 11y ago
We are definitely in a bubble. The question is whether, when and how bad it will burst. Predicting market events like bursts is extremely hard, even for experts - so hard you can make a lot of money from it - remember that economists too said that the housing market was a bubble and wrote posts to mock how, for four years people kept repeating the claims. If billion dollar valuations for buttons that text 'Yo' isn't a speculation bubble on the one area of US industrial growth, an area that gets a lot of cash influx to keep it going (much of it taxpayer), I don't know what we could call a bubble. Not all bubbles burst. But how much confidence do you have that the market will remain the way it is today after another series of Snowden revelations, a housing crises (or water crisis) in the Valley, the release of financial information that makes people lose faith, a shocking event like Alibaba beating out Amazon or something, etc? If you think something like that could seriously damage the industry then you have to admit that the demand for the good and services is highly elastic - or at least fragile. Fragility of a market + overvaluation and overspeculation implies a bubble.
- onewaystreet 11y ago
  Can you provide an example of a startup that you think is overvalued?
  - brador 11y ago
    > that you think is overvalued? That's the problem. Valuations are dreams and "best case scenario" right now because we haven't had an IPO to lock in valuation for a long time. It'll take a single IPO flop to start the bubble bursting domino run just like v1. The real question then is: Can IPOs be succesfully propped to prevent every possible flop? because it'll take just one bad egg to bring down the house.
    - mason55 11y ago
      > It'll take a single IPO flop to start the bubble bursting domino run just like v1. How about Etsy? Their IPO was a pretty big flop and there has been no domino run.

by swang 11y ago

akshatpradhan 11y ago

All the URLs come from Business Insider. That's kind of like John Stewart's point how the News Media says year after year that this is the worst Allergy Season ever. Its the worst allergy season every year no matter what because pollen count increases every year no matter what.

TheBeardKing 11y ago
Why do pollen counts increase every year? Global temperatures don't rise every year.
- dragonwriter 11y ago
  If the rising pollen counts are part of a process that is driven by the overall global temperature trend but which is relatively insensitive to annual variation around that trend, such that the output is smoothed compared to the input, that would produce the pollen counts rising every year with a rising global temperature trend, even if global temperatures don't rise every year. One particular reason this might be the case is if the process driving the increased pollen count is a reaction to global temperature (or some other more direct product of global temperature) that moves to slowly compared to the average rate of global temperature change to ever reach an equilibrium point with the current global temperature, so that its always trailing well below what it would be at the current global temperature if that temperature were a long-term sustained average.
  - akshatpradhan 11y ago
    Could you ELI5?
albertoleal 11y ago
> ... because pollen count increases every year no matter what. Is this actually true?

sjm-lbm 11y ago

Seems pretty standard. Economists are usually very good at predicting 11 out of 4 recessions/bubbles ending/whatever.

austenallred 11y ago

2009: OK you're right, this is a bubble http://blog.jedchristiansen.com/pmarcaarchive/ok-youre-right-it-is-a-bubble/ http://blog.jedchristiansen.com/pmarcaarchive/ok-youre-right...

themeek 11y ago

We are definitely in a bubble. The question is whether, when and how bad it will burst. Predicting market events like bursts is extremely hard, even for experts - so hard you can make a lot of money from it - remember that economists too said that the housing market was a bubble and wrote posts to mock how, for four years people kept repeating the claims. If billion dollar valuations for buttons that text 'Yo' isn't a speculation bubble on the one area of US industrial growth, an area that gets a lot of cash influx to keep it going (much of it taxpayer), I don't know what we could call a bubble. Not all bubbles burst. But how much confidence do you have that the market will remain the way it is today after another series of Snowden revelations, a housing crises (or water crisis) in the Valley, the release of financial information that makes people lose faith, a shocking event like Alibaba beating out Amazon or something, etc? If you think something like that could seriously damage the industry then you have to admit that the demand for the good and services is highly elastic - or at least fragile. Fragility of a market + overvaluation and overspeculation implies a bubble.

onewaystreet 11y ago
Can you provide an example of a startup that you think is overvalued?
- brador 11y ago
  > that you think is overvalued? That's the problem. Valuations are dreams and "best case scenario" right now because we haven't had an IPO to lock in valuation for a long time. It'll take a single IPO flop to start the bubble bursting domino run just like v1. The real question then is: Can IPOs be succesfully propped to prevent every possible flop? because it'll take just one bad egg to bring down the house.
  - mason55 11y ago
    > It'll take a single IPO flop to start the bubble bursting domino run just like v1. How about Etsy? Their IPO was a pretty big flop and there has been no domino run.