So many of these articles (and CEOs) fail to take portfolio theory into account. Your chances of success are still very small. Almost infinitesimally so, and y

So many of these articles (and CEOs) fail to take portfolio theory into account. Your chances of success are still very small. Almost infinitesimally so, and your valuation doesn't change that.A lot of companies will fail. VCs hope that the ones that are successful are successful in a big enough way to make up for all of the losses. But the fact that a bunch of "billion dollar" companies are going to go belly up doesn't mean that everyone's acting irrationally. They're just going to subsidize the failure of the many with the success of the few. A bubble bursting happens if on average the investors lose so badly that their LPs start to put money into something other than startups. Not if some "unicorns" fail. And by the way, there are a lot more variables than even the success of the startups. Interest rates, success of other types of investments, etc. probably play more of a role in startup valuations than the success of most startups. Right now interest rates are essentially zero, and as a result people are throwing money at almost anything that has a vague promise of a return. That being said, the entire VC slice of the economy is laughably small compared to other aspects. It's basically rounding error.