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Has the deflation dragon been Slain? Let's see. My perspective is that there have been many false dawns in Japan, even after more than 20 years there is still n

Has the deflation dragon been Slain? Let's see. My perspective is that there have been many false dawns in Japan, even after more than 20 years there is still no clear way out. Of course Japan is a special case: as close as it is to China. As long as PRC growth slows, the developed world may get some respite from deflation. Which is intended as observation, not judgement. Good wishes to the Chinese economy.

crdoconnor 11y ago
Japan isn't special. Japan is a taste of what's to come.
- AnimalMuppet 11y ago
  Well, no, Japan is a taste of what's to come if we do what Japan did and if the circumstances are the same. To say that Japan is the inevitable end result, no matter what we do... I'll just say "Objection, your honor. Assumes facts not in evidence."
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    > Well, no, Japan is a taste of what's to come if we do what Japan did and if the circumstances are the same. Have an aging population and birth rate contraction? Because that's the fate (which ISN'T A BAD THING) of all developed countries.
    - AnimalMuppet 11y ago
      That's the fate of all developed countries... except possibly the US. Immigration may save the US (or may not, depending on what happens with immigration policy...)
    - hga 11y ago
      That's a VERY BAD THING if your aging population can't be supported by a too small younger demographic. One of Japan's solutions has been in part to simply lose a lot of their old age pension records in a conveniently incompetent computerization effort for the less powerful, the ones in the high risk, low reward sector of the economy (not the salarymen). Another has been what sure looks like unsustainable borrowing. But eventually present consumption by definition has to come from present production, and that looks unsustainable, at least while keeping everyone at First World levels. Addressing AnimalMuppet's point a bit, a welfare state is incompatible with unrestricted immigration by people with low earning potential, as we're experiencing today. It makes the welfare state all the more unsustainable, and at least one side of the isle ought to be concerned that it noticeably strengthens capital's hand.
      - toomuchtodo 11y ago
        I don't agree at all. You're assuming you need people to support an aging population, while at the same time everyone is crying out that automation and software are going to make everyone redundant. Has anyone not imagined these two points intersecting?
        hga 11y ago
        I don't see it happening soon enough for a whole bunch of reasons. The suppression of nanotech development for an "ultimate" solution, the current VC, IPO etc. situation which is anything but hardware friendly, in sharp contrast to the, oh, pre-mid-90s or so, to just how darn hard this stuff is. My mother was a RN, my father managed the business affairs of a lot of doctors, one of which was his primary hunting partner, my youngest parent is almost 80, this is not stuff you can automate now at any level beyond say lab work, and I don't see that changing in time. I, at least, and not "crying out that automation and software are going to make everyone redundant" prior to some nanotech utopia, which is some years out from even achieving the first levels of Drexler style nanotech.
        toomuchtodo 11y ago
        > I, at least, and not "crying out that automation and software are going to make everyone redundant" prior to some nanotech utopia, which is some years out from even achieving the first levels of Drexler style nanotech. Then I think we have much work to do.
  - crdoconnor 11y ago
    >Well, no, Japan is a taste of what's to come if we do what Japan did We are already doing what they did. Perpetual ZIRP and neoliberal reforms in a vain attempt to escape a liquidity trap and return to growth. Now we can watch as our birth rate tumbles, too.

crdoconnor 11y ago

Japan isn't special. Japan is a taste of what's to come.

AnimalMuppet 11y ago
Well, no, Japan is a taste of what's to come if we do what Japan did and if the circumstances are the same. To say that Japan is the inevitable end result, no matter what we do... I'll just say "Objection, your honor. Assumes facts not in evidence."
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  > Well, no, Japan is a taste of what's to come if we do what Japan did and if the circumstances are the same. Have an aging population and birth rate contraction? Because that's the fate (which ISN'T A BAD THING) of all developed countries.
  - AnimalMuppet 11y ago
    That's the fate of all developed countries... except possibly the US. Immigration may save the US (or may not, depending on what happens with immigration policy...)
  - hga 11y ago
    That's a VERY BAD THING if your aging population can't be supported by a too small younger demographic. One of Japan's solutions has been in part to simply lose a lot of their old age pension records in a conveniently incompetent computerization effort for the less powerful, the ones in the high risk, low reward sector of the economy (not the salarymen). Another has been what sure looks like unsustainable borrowing. But eventually present consumption by definition has to come from present production, and that looks unsustainable, at least while keeping everyone at First World levels. Addressing AnimalMuppet's point a bit, a welfare state is incompatible with unrestricted immigration by people with low earning potential, as we're experiencing today. It makes the welfare state all the more unsustainable, and at least one side of the isle ought to be concerned that it noticeably strengthens capital's hand.
    - toomuchtodo 11y ago
      I don't agree at all. You're assuming you need people to support an aging population, while at the same time everyone is crying out that automation and software are going to make everyone redundant. Has anyone not imagined these two points intersecting?
      - hga 11y ago
        I don't see it happening soon enough for a whole bunch of reasons. The suppression of nanotech development for an "ultimate" solution, the current VC, IPO etc. situation which is anything but hardware friendly, in sharp contrast to the, oh, pre-mid-90s or so, to just how darn hard this stuff is. My mother was a RN, my father managed the business affairs of a lot of doctors, one of which was his primary hunting partner, my youngest parent is almost 80, this is not stuff you can automate now at any level beyond say lab work, and I don't see that changing in time. I, at least, and not "crying out that automation and software are going to make everyone redundant" prior to some nanotech utopia, which is some years out from even achieving the first levels of Drexler style nanotech.
        toomuchtodo 11y ago
        > I, at least, and not "crying out that automation and software are going to make everyone redundant" prior to some nanotech utopia, which is some years out from even achieving the first levels of Drexler style nanotech. Then I think we have much work to do.
- crdoconnor 11y ago
  >Well, no, Japan is a taste of what's to come if we do what Japan did We are already doing what they did. Perpetual ZIRP and neoliberal reforms in a vain attempt to escape a liquidity trap and return to growth. Now we can watch as our birth rate tumbles, too.