I also wrote a little blog post about that very thing back in 2011. In addition to using a Markov chain approach, also took a look at it from an information ent

I also wrote a little blog post about that very thing back in 2011. In addition to using a Markov chain approach, also took a look at it from an information entropy perspective. And the code is also in R, to boot! http://bayesianbiologist.com/2011/12/31/uncertainty-in-markov-chains-fun-with-snakes-and-ladders/ http://bayesianbiologist.com/2011/12/31/uncertainty-in-marko...