4 ms·

In this thread several people mentioned awards of $100k, given 10% probability of winning the mathematical expectation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_va

by DenisM 17y ago

In this thread several people mentioned awards of $100k, given 10% probability of winning the mathematical expectation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value) of the award is $10k. That is if you try 100 times you will win 10 times and get $100k each time you win, or $1m total, or $10k per attempt.

rfreytag 17y ago
I did say that 3 awards out of about 30 submissions was unusually high. There are always topics for which no awards are made. Many have only one award. 100 topics is about how many are in each list of SBIR/STTRs circulated on topics as diverse as new techniques in field medicine to better translation to new power storage mechanisms. It would require considerable technical range to propose to them all and succeed. You do not get to make up your own topics. They are posted by Program Managers working for the government. If you attempt to propose to more than one personally in an SBIR/STTR cycle you will lose. That is in part how my first two failed. I find it takes a considerable effort to put together a good AND short proposal. Then there is the catch that you must inform all agencies of similar proposals sent previously or at the same time to other agencies (so you can't win two with one proposal). Proposals are judged against your ability to execute upon award. The bottom line is that the odds are quite a bit lower than 10%. My advice is go read the solicitations and then get out and meet the program managers a'la Steve Blank. You will learn a lot and your proposal will benefit from it. It is a tough process but does seem to reward determination. One last word - keep yours, government contracting is a small town. I hope this helps you assess the risks and how you can reduce them. Best of luck!
- DenisM 17y ago
  I am not proposing applying 100 times, I am proposing a way to asses the expected outcome. The award size itself is not sufficient to know if it's worth the time spent, because you may not get that award. Taking the award size and multiplying it by the probability is a quick way to see if it's worth the effort. For example, playing lottery your expected outcome is less than the entry price even though awards are staggeringly high. Does it make more sense now?
  - rfreytag 17y ago
    10% is optimistic. Below a certain funding level you are not Ramen-profitable for a multi-year contract. Expected value meet empty cupboard.
    - DenisM 17y ago
      They have funded 395 out of 2067 submissions in 2007, so the my estimates were even too conservative: http://www.nsf.gov/eng/iip/sbir/phaseI_map.ppt http://www.nsf.gov/eng/iip/sbir/phaseI_map.ppt Another poster indicated the money comes with no strings attached, other than quarterly reporting. Is there a multi-year contract I have missed?
      - rfreytag 17y ago
        First the simple question: the gap between Phase I end and Phase II start is often quite long. There are other process and IP-related issues (with DoD, NSF might be different). Your estimate assumes that if you compete you have at least an average ability to win. This is very probably an inaccurate assumption. In my opinion, if you go in cold you are unlikely to have an average probability of winning on even a minority of the topics unless you are highly expert in the field of the topic and bring something utterly original yet reasonable to execute for the funding. Assuming you do know the topic at a far-above-average level - you might not know how to write a good proposal, or understand what the proposer is really asking for, or be seen to be able to execute successfully, or be able to commercialize the result of the effort (maybe not as important to NSF as of a few years back) to name a few; but you get the idea. Fundamentally, your odds depend on a fit with the topic and your personal ability to execute this type of process. That is why your odds go up after you successfully execute once. Lastly, do a lot of legwork before proposing - figure a generous amount of out-of-the-chair legwork into your expected value calculations. Look around for colleagues that have done this and pick their brains.
gojomo 17y ago
Trying to calculate expected value is a reasonable approach. (I understand expected value, just hadn't seen the $100K estimate.) This appears to be the full solicitation of which the "(IC)" area is part: http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2009/nsf09609/nsf09609.htm http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2009/nsf09609/nsf09609.htm Looks to be 200-300 awards of up to $150K each It might be reasonable to assign a much higher expected value, if the applicant knows (via communication with the program officer) that their team and area are in a favored area, or if they expect to also seek government funding past the first stage, or if they get some value (experience/feedback) even from a 'loss'. Also, the costs of applying could be far less than 2 weeks if (for whatever reason) an applicant is good at the process or can repurpose other presentation materials. So perhaps the expected value is some multiple of $10K, for just a day or two's effort,
- DenisM 17y ago
  I expect most other applicants to do the due diligence and communicate with program officers as well, it's even suggested on the application paperwork. In general I expect similar situations to attract similar caliber of people, the only exceptionality I expect is in their core competency not in other things such as process, paperwork etc. I agree on non-monetary rewards, those can be useful for some people depending on their future plan. I see myself in consumer market, so it's not clear how much benefit will I get from it. Would be nice to know more about that. I need to look closer into the two-week thing. You might be right, and if it's less than a week I might as well just do it. Speaking of probabilities, they have funded 395 out of 2067 submissions in 2007, so the estimates are going up slightly: http://www.nsf.gov/eng/iip/sbir/phaseI_map.ppt http://www.nsf.gov/eng/iip/sbir/phaseI_map.ppt
  - rfreytag 17y ago
    Definitely try to speak to the PM.
- rfreytag 17y ago
  If you don't know the existence let alone the order of magnitude on some of the cost terms then expected value will mislead you. The SBIR/STTR program does what it is intended to do but do study it carefully first.

by DenisM 17y ago

rfreytag 17y ago

I did say that 3 awards out of about 30 submissions was unusually high. There are always topics for which no awards are made. Many have only one award. 100 topics is about how many are in each list of SBIR/STTRs circulated on topics as diverse as new techniques in field medicine to better translation to new power storage mechanisms. It would require considerable technical range to propose to them all and succeed. You do not get to make up your own topics. They are posted by Program Managers working for the government. If you attempt to propose to more than one personally in an SBIR/STTR cycle you will lose. That is in part how my first two failed. I find it takes a considerable effort to put together a good AND short proposal. Then there is the catch that you must inform all agencies of similar proposals sent previously or at the same time to other agencies (so you can't win two with one proposal). Proposals are judged against your ability to execute upon award. The bottom line is that the odds are quite a bit lower than 10%. My advice is go read the solicitations and then get out and meet the program managers a'la Steve Blank. You will learn a lot and your proposal will benefit from it. It is a tough process but does seem to reward determination. One last word - keep yours, government contracting is a small town. I hope this helps you assess the risks and how you can reduce them. Best of luck!

DenisM 17y ago
I am not proposing applying 100 times, I am proposing a way to asses the expected outcome. The award size itself is not sufficient to know if it's worth the time spent, because you may not get that award. Taking the award size and multiplying it by the probability is a quick way to see if it's worth the effort. For example, playing lottery your expected outcome is less than the entry price even though awards are staggeringly high. Does it make more sense now?
- rfreytag 17y ago
  10% is optimistic. Below a certain funding level you are not Ramen-profitable for a multi-year contract. Expected value meet empty cupboard.
  - DenisM 17y ago
    They have funded 395 out of 2067 submissions in 2007, so the my estimates were even too conservative: http://www.nsf.gov/eng/iip/sbir/phaseI_map.ppt http://www.nsf.gov/eng/iip/sbir/phaseI_map.ppt Another poster indicated the money comes with no strings attached, other than quarterly reporting. Is there a multi-year contract I have missed?
    - rfreytag 17y ago
      First the simple question: the gap between Phase I end and Phase II start is often quite long. There are other process and IP-related issues (with DoD, NSF might be different). Your estimate assumes that if you compete you have at least an average ability to win. This is very probably an inaccurate assumption. In my opinion, if you go in cold you are unlikely to have an average probability of winning on even a minority of the topics unless you are highly expert in the field of the topic and bring something utterly original yet reasonable to execute for the funding. Assuming you do know the topic at a far-above-average level - you might not know how to write a good proposal, or understand what the proposer is really asking for, or be seen to be able to execute successfully, or be able to commercialize the result of the effort (maybe not as important to NSF as of a few years back) to name a few; but you get the idea. Fundamentally, your odds depend on a fit with the topic and your personal ability to execute this type of process. That is why your odds go up after you successfully execute once. Lastly, do a lot of legwork before proposing - figure a generous amount of out-of-the-chair legwork into your expected value calculations. Look around for colleagues that have done this and pick their brains.

gojomo 17y ago

Trying to calculate expected value is a reasonable approach. (I understand expected value, just hadn't seen the $100K estimate.) This appears to be the full solicitation of which the "(IC)" area is part: http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2009/nsf09609/nsf09609.htm http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2009/nsf09609/nsf09609.htm Looks to be 200-300 awards of up to $150K each It might be reasonable to assign a much higher expected value, if the applicant knows (via communication with the program officer) that their team and area are in a favored area, or if they expect to also seek government funding past the first stage, or if they get some value (experience/feedback) even from a 'loss'. Also, the costs of applying could be far less than 2 weeks if (for whatever reason) an applicant is good at the process or can repurpose other presentation materials. So perhaps the expected value is some multiple of $10K, for just a day or two's effort,

DenisM 17y ago
I expect most other applicants to do the due diligence and communicate with program officers as well, it's even suggested on the application paperwork. In general I expect similar situations to attract similar caliber of people, the only exceptionality I expect is in their core competency not in other things such as process, paperwork etc. I agree on non-monetary rewards, those can be useful for some people depending on their future plan. I see myself in consumer market, so it's not clear how much benefit will I get from it. Would be nice to know more about that. I need to look closer into the two-week thing. You might be right, and if it's less than a week I might as well just do it. Speaking of probabilities, they have funded 395 out of 2067 submissions in 2007, so the estimates are going up slightly: http://www.nsf.gov/eng/iip/sbir/phaseI_map.ppt http://www.nsf.gov/eng/iip/sbir/phaseI_map.ppt
- rfreytag 17y ago
  Definitely try to speak to the PM.
rfreytag 17y ago
If you don't know the existence let alone the order of magnitude on some of the cost terms then expected value will mislead you. The SBIR/STTR program does what it is intended to do but do study it carefully first.