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Your model of "randomness" is unrelated to the argument that is being made here. No one--absolutely no one--is saying anything to suggest that a random selectio

Your model of "randomness" is unrelated to the argument that is being made here. No one--absolutely no one--is saying anything to suggest that a random selection of people could win an NBA championship. They are saying that randomness has an important role to play in the creation of a winning team, along with talent and hard work. Given that the world is full of talented people who are working hard--and it is--the difference between those who make it and those who don't is very often due to luck. Persistence and courage are two things that really do make a difference because they give luck the most time and largest field on which to operate, but nothing can eliminate luck entirely. Almost everyone who succeeds is talented and works hard. That is completely unrelated to the claim that everyone who is talented and works hard succeeds. The belief that winners and losers are separated primarily by talent and effort is not very plausible, given the number of "near misses" in the world: people who make it most of the way to success and get derailed by one bad choice (which was not an obviously bad choice at the time) or some other piece of bad luck.

kenjackson 11y ago
The real secret about success is that it's random. It's not even about luck or hard work, success is simply random. That's the line I was responding to. This seems directly opposed to what you said, "They are saying that randomness has an important role to play in the creation of a winning team, along with talent and hard work." I will grant you that randomness plays a role. But success in NOT "simply random".
- alaskamiller 11y ago
  Someone right now paid one ticket and won the lotto. Someone right now said hello once and met their significant other they're marrying. Someone right now submitted their resume once and got the job of their dreams. Someone right now has interviewed ten times and only got one rejection letter. Someone right now had paid for a hundred thousand tickets and never won a thing. Someone right now has said hello a million times and still hasn't found their romantic love. You and I are somewhere in between those two extremes. It is random and chaotic. There are times good things happen to bad people and sometimes bad things happen to good people. This isn't to say you shouldn't go full nihilistic, don't work hard, don't be kind, don't be compassionate, but the unwavering belief that hard work and fearing failure is the only salvation will drive you crazy pointlessly when you still don't get what you want. Expecting results and not getting it in spite of your hard work will make you bitter, jealous and negative. The pursuit for success will make you a monster and in turn distance you from others. And in the end you might just get hit by a bus randomly walking down a street.
  - kenjackson 11y ago
    Someone right now paid one ticket and won the lotto. That's mostly randomness. Someone right now said hello once and met their significant other they're marrying. Someone right now submitted their resume once and got the job of their dreams. Someone right now has interviewed ten times and only got one rejection letter. These probably mostly are not random. Someone right now had paid for a hundred thousand tickets and never won a thing. Mostly random. Someone right now has said hello a million times and still hasn't found their romantic love. Mostly not. There are times good things happen to bad people and sometimes bad things happen to good people. This implies things are mostly non-random. Unless you're saying that good/bad things happen with equal randomness to all people. This isn't to say you shouldn't go full nihilistic, don't work hard, don't be kind, don't be compassionate I think you are saying that doing all of that won't impact if you're a success though. but the unwavering belief that hard work is the only salvation No one said that. Expecting results and not getting it in spite of your hard work will make you bitter, jealous and negative. Why do the work if you don't expect an increased likelihood of the result? Why try to dig a hole if I believe that it's just as likely that the hole randomly appears in the spot that I want? Of course, I have a feeling that the hard work of digging the hole increases the odds of there being a hole in the ground. But that's just me in my crazy world where not everything is simply random. The pursuit for success will make you a monster and in turn distance you from others. Really? It seems like I've seen the exact opposite in my life. Friends I know who have given up on any ambition at all have distanced themselves from others (and largely fallen heavily onto drugs). And in the end you might just get hit by a bus randomly walking down a street. I think I'm more likely to get hit by a bus if I don't try to watch where I'm going. That is, succeeding in crossing the street is something I try to do. Failing to do so and getting hit by a bus may cause me to cry and feel pain. Obviously for you failing in this manner is no big deal.
  - hinkley 11y ago
    "Fortune favors the prepared mind." It's the middle way between everything being planning and everything being luck.

kenjackson 11y ago

The real secret about success is that it's random. It's not even about luck or hard work, success is simply random. That's the line I was responding to. This seems directly opposed to what you said, "They are saying that randomness has an important role to play in the creation of a winning team, along with talent and hard work." I will grant you that randomness plays a role. But success in NOT "simply random".

alaskamiller 11y ago
Someone right now paid one ticket and won the lotto. Someone right now said hello once and met their significant other they're marrying. Someone right now submitted their resume once and got the job of their dreams. Someone right now has interviewed ten times and only got one rejection letter. Someone right now had paid for a hundred thousand tickets and never won a thing. Someone right now has said hello a million times and still hasn't found their romantic love. You and I are somewhere in between those two extremes. It is random and chaotic. There are times good things happen to bad people and sometimes bad things happen to good people. This isn't to say you shouldn't go full nihilistic, don't work hard, don't be kind, don't be compassionate, but the unwavering belief that hard work and fearing failure is the only salvation will drive you crazy pointlessly when you still don't get what you want. Expecting results and not getting it in spite of your hard work will make you bitter, jealous and negative. The pursuit for success will make you a monster and in turn distance you from others. And in the end you might just get hit by a bus randomly walking down a street.
- kenjackson 11y ago
  Someone right now paid one ticket and won the lotto. That's mostly randomness. Someone right now said hello once and met their significant other they're marrying. Someone right now submitted their resume once and got the job of their dreams. Someone right now has interviewed ten times and only got one rejection letter. These probably mostly are not random. Someone right now had paid for a hundred thousand tickets and never won a thing. Mostly random. Someone right now has said hello a million times and still hasn't found their romantic love. Mostly not. There are times good things happen to bad people and sometimes bad things happen to good people. This implies things are mostly non-random. Unless you're saying that good/bad things happen with equal randomness to all people. This isn't to say you shouldn't go full nihilistic, don't work hard, don't be kind, don't be compassionate I think you are saying that doing all of that won't impact if you're a success though. but the unwavering belief that hard work is the only salvation No one said that. Expecting results and not getting it in spite of your hard work will make you bitter, jealous and negative. Why do the work if you don't expect an increased likelihood of the result? Why try to dig a hole if I believe that it's just as likely that the hole randomly appears in the spot that I want? Of course, I have a feeling that the hard work of digging the hole increases the odds of there being a hole in the ground. But that's just me in my crazy world where not everything is simply random. The pursuit for success will make you a monster and in turn distance you from others. Really? It seems like I've seen the exact opposite in my life. Friends I know who have given up on any ambition at all have distanced themselves from others (and largely fallen heavily onto drugs). And in the end you might just get hit by a bus randomly walking down a street. I think I'm more likely to get hit by a bus if I don't try to watch where I'm going. That is, succeeding in crossing the street is something I try to do. Failing to do so and getting hit by a bus may cause me to cry and feel pain. Obviously for you failing in this manner is no big deal.
- hinkley 11y ago
  "Fortune favors the prepared mind." It's the middle way between everything being planning and everything being luck.