4 ms·

I'm trying to figure out if I can keep my current car until autonomous vehicles become broadly available. Anyone here have an informed opinion on when that wil

by dbecker 11y ago

I'm trying to figure out if I can keep my current car until autonomous vehicles become broadly available. Anyone here have an informed opinion on when that will happen?

return0 11y ago
I suppose if they become mainstream, you will be able to convert your car to autonomous.
- organsnyder 11y ago
  I don't think that a conversion will be easy. In addition to all of the necessary sensors and automated controls, you'd need to find someone willing to either do the conversion for you or sell you the parts needed to do it yourself, including a license for the software. Given the liability issues and low payoff involved, I doubt that any of the players involved will be licensing their software for diy/conversion use.
  - return0 11y ago
    Isn't the long term plan of google to licence the technology to car makers? Also the sensors and manipulators seem like standard components so they 'll probably not cost a lot when they are produced at scale.
    - organsnyder 11y ago
      I believe that is their plan. However, I don't see them going after the aftermarket—too many variables, and given the liability issues involved (for instance, what would happen if a sensor was installed incorrectly?), I think they'll avoid the aftermarket channel entirely.
      - jfoutz 11y ago
        At the opening yes. Midgame, is requiring autonomous cars only in certain situations - perhaps highway/freeway lanes. Endgame is, of course, autonomous only - aftermarket is inevitable there. But the tech will be old and reliable by then.
        organsnyder 11y ago
        I don't see us ever getting to a point where human drivers are prohibited—at least not in the time span where we'd need to worry about converting existing vehicles. In the USA at least, driving is so closely associated with the idea of "freedom" that such a move would be politically untenable, no matter the potential for lives saved. Also, I think that once the majority of vehicles are autonomous, the remaining human drivers become less of a danger—I'd argue that most accidents involve two parties making mistakes (even the "not-at-fault" driver wasn't driving as defensively as they could have been). It will be interesting to see how insurance rates change for autonomous vehicles—a vehicle with no potential for manual control should in theory be much cheaper to insure.
greedo 11y ago
Unless you live in an area with perfect weather, don't expect autonomous vehicles very soon. They have difficulty in heavy rain, snow, and ice.
- rogx76 11y ago
  Because we humans do not in the exact same circumstances.
  - krapp 11y ago
    In the exact same circumstances, humans can adapt to and handle the difficulty, whereas autonomous car technology currently can't and doesn't.
- Someone1234 11y ago
  That's a significant problem. So does Google only send their car out in good weather?
  - enneff 11y ago
    The cars are developed in California. The weather is great here almost all the time. The cars are still under development and inclement weather is an obvious thing the team must be thinking about. I fully expect, in time, that autonomous vehicles to drive more safely in bad weather than people. (They'll be more cautious, for one.)
- TwiztidK 11y ago
  Absolutely. If you've ever driven though heavy snow, you know that you can barely see any of the road (no white or yellow lines) and lights are the only part of other cars that you can see. Signs and other traffic signals get completely covered with snow. People can barely drive in those conditions, I highly doubt that a self driving car could with current technology. Although I have high hopes for the future.
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
toomuchtodo 11y ago
~5 years. Freightliner's auto-drive truck is already in production, and light vehicle manufacturers, Google, Apple, Bosch are all pushing the limits pretty fast (and Tesla of course!). 5 years tops. I'd bet on it.
- free2rhyme214 11y ago
  Me too. However I'd rather wait for a few years after they're out, like the Apple Watch, before I use one. I think we won't need to own cars and will simply press a button like Uber and the car drives us wherever.
- jaredhansen 11y ago
  I'll (sadly) take the over on that. I'll bet you $1k that fully autonomous cars will not be: (1) legal to ride on at least 90% of public roads AND (2) available for sale to the general public AND (3) for under $250,000 in 2015 dollars AND (4) in the state of California AND (5) on or before June 5 2020. Deal? (If I were richer, I'd bet more, in order to up my chances of being happy either way. I want to lose, but don't think I will.)
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    I think we're going to quibble on 2 and 3. It doesn't matter what the capital cost of the vehicle is if you no longer need to own the vehicle and can order it on demand from Google, Uber, etc. If you want to hammer out details, my email is in my profile. We'd use LongBets [1] to keep track, and under the condition that the loser has to donate the amount chosen to a charity of the winner's choice. [1] http://longbets.org/ http://longbets.org/
    - zanny 11y ago
      I don't see how autos could realistically cost $250k each anyway. They are not using significantly more raw resources. Electric cars are an accurate comparison, because they also have top of the line tech in a specific domain - batteries. And volume batteries are a much bigger manufacturing problem than radar systems, which have been assembled (but not at auto-fleet scale) for decades, albeit not with current tech, but much more closer to current assembly than what Teslas LI batteries are. I imagine something like this Google car could go to market for around $80k today, and thats factoring in huge amounts of per-unit overhead for building factories to assemble them en masse in the first place. An auto upgrade kit to a traditional car probably won't cost more than 20k if they permit the retrofitting of old vehicles when the ball starts rolling.
natrius 11y ago
If you're fine riding with other people, then a self driving car is just a Lyft Line with one extra seat available and without driver wages to pay. I think they're going to drive down the costs of a ride to a level where buying a car doesn't make sense for many people even before self driving cars happen.
bitsoda 11y ago
I'm hoping by 2025, but that may be a bit optimistic.
cgusto 11y ago
IMHO, fully autonomous cars for the general public are at least 10+ years away. What I'm excited about is how we will soon see more and more autonomous 'features' i.e. lane changing, smarter adaptive cruise control and parking lot mode.

by dbecker 11y ago

I'm trying to figure out if I can keep my current car until autonomous vehicles become broadly available. Anyone here have an informed opinion on when that will happen?

return0 11y ago

I suppose if they become mainstream, you will be able to convert your car to autonomous.

organsnyder 11y ago
I don't think that a conversion will be easy. In addition to all of the necessary sensors and automated controls, you'd need to find someone willing to either do the conversion for you or sell you the parts needed to do it yourself, including a license for the software. Given the liability issues and low payoff involved, I doubt that any of the players involved will be licensing their software for diy/conversion use.
- return0 11y ago
  Isn't the long term plan of google to licence the technology to car makers? Also the sensors and manipulators seem like standard components so they 'll probably not cost a lot when they are produced at scale.
  - organsnyder 11y ago
    I believe that is their plan. However, I don't see them going after the aftermarket—too many variables, and given the liability issues involved (for instance, what would happen if a sensor was installed incorrectly?), I think they'll avoid the aftermarket channel entirely.
    - jfoutz 11y ago
      At the opening yes. Midgame, is requiring autonomous cars only in certain situations - perhaps highway/freeway lanes. Endgame is, of course, autonomous only - aftermarket is inevitable there. But the tech will be old and reliable by then.
      - organsnyder 11y ago
        I don't see us ever getting to a point where human drivers are prohibited—at least not in the time span where we'd need to worry about converting existing vehicles. In the USA at least, driving is so closely associated with the idea of "freedom" that such a move would be politically untenable, no matter the potential for lives saved. Also, I think that once the majority of vehicles are autonomous, the remaining human drivers become less of a danger—I'd argue that most accidents involve two parties making mistakes (even the "not-at-fault" driver wasn't driving as defensively as they could have been). It will be interesting to see how insurance rates change for autonomous vehicles—a vehicle with no potential for manual control should in theory be much cheaper to insure.

greedo 11y ago

Unless you live in an area with perfect weather, don't expect autonomous vehicles very soon. They have difficulty in heavy rain, snow, and ice.

rogx76 11y ago
Because we humans do not in the exact same circumstances.
- krapp 11y ago
  In the exact same circumstances, humans can adapt to and handle the difficulty, whereas autonomous car technology currently can't and doesn't.
Someone1234 11y ago
That's a significant problem. So does Google only send their car out in good weather?
- enneff 11y ago
  The cars are developed in California. The weather is great here almost all the time. The cars are still under development and inclement weather is an obvious thing the team must be thinking about. I fully expect, in time, that autonomous vehicles to drive more safely in bad weather than people. (They'll be more cautious, for one.)
TwiztidK 11y ago
Absolutely. If you've ever driven though heavy snow, you know that you can barely see any of the road (no white or yellow lines) and lights are the only part of other cars that you can see. Signs and other traffic signals get completely covered with snow. People can barely drive in those conditions, I highly doubt that a self driving car could with current technology. Although I have high hopes for the future.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]

toomuchtodo 11y ago

~5 years. Freightliner's auto-drive truck is already in production, and light vehicle manufacturers, Google, Apple, Bosch are all pushing the limits pretty fast (and Tesla of course!). 5 years tops. I'd bet on it.

free2rhyme214 11y ago
Me too. However I'd rather wait for a few years after they're out, like the Apple Watch, before I use one. I think we won't need to own cars and will simply press a button like Uber and the car drives us wherever.
jaredhansen 11y ago
I'll (sadly) take the over on that. I'll bet you $1k that fully autonomous cars will not be: (1) legal to ride on at least 90% of public roads AND (2) available for sale to the general public AND (3) for under $250,000 in 2015 dollars AND (4) in the state of California AND (5) on or before June 5 2020. Deal? (If I were richer, I'd bet more, in order to up my chances of being happy either way. I want to lose, but don't think I will.)
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  I think we're going to quibble on 2 and 3. It doesn't matter what the capital cost of the vehicle is if you no longer need to own the vehicle and can order it on demand from Google, Uber, etc. If you want to hammer out details, my email is in my profile. We'd use LongBets [1] to keep track, and under the condition that the loser has to donate the amount chosen to a charity of the winner's choice. [1] http://longbets.org/ http://longbets.org/
  - zanny 11y ago
    I don't see how autos could realistically cost $250k each anyway. They are not using significantly more raw resources. Electric cars are an accurate comparison, because they also have top of the line tech in a specific domain - batteries. And volume batteries are a much bigger manufacturing problem than radar systems, which have been assembled (but not at auto-fleet scale) for decades, albeit not with current tech, but much more closer to current assembly than what Teslas LI batteries are. I imagine something like this Google car could go to market for around $80k today, and thats factoring in huge amounts of per-unit overhead for building factories to assemble them en masse in the first place. An auto upgrade kit to a traditional car probably won't cost more than 20k if they permit the retrofitting of old vehicles when the ball starts rolling.

natrius 11y ago

If you're fine riding with other people, then a self driving car is just a Lyft Line with one extra seat available and without driver wages to pay. I think they're going to drive down the costs of a ride to a level where buying a car doesn't make sense for many people even before self driving cars happen.

bitsoda 11y ago

I'm hoping by 2025, but that may be a bit optimistic.

cgusto 11y ago

IMHO, fully autonomous cars for the general public are at least 10+ years away. What I'm excited about is how we will soon see more and more autonomous 'features' i.e. lane changing, smarter adaptive cruise control and parking lot mode.