Meanwhile, the Arctic is melting... Maybe some of the climate change scientists got caught up in the politics of the situation and inappropriately exaggerated

Meanwhile, the Arctic is melting... Maybe some of the climate change scientists got caught up in the politics of the situation and inappropriately exaggerated matters. But consider this: every single national academy of science in the world agrees the basic theory of global warming is correct. That's pretty overwhelming. So there are two possibilities: it's all a big hoax by scientists, or it's nearly certain, but an unwarranted level of doubt has been fueled by, well, the industries that want to keep burning fuel... So what, really, sounds more likely? Let's say there's only an 80% chance the theory is correct. If it's not, then we're screwed anyhow. If it is, we might just be able prevent a whole lot of trouble if we act soon. How certain do we have to be?