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The risk of zero rates is greater. Low long term interest rates are bad, as they represent low (or zero) growth. A sell off in bonds, especially low-risk bond
by zhte415 11y ago
The risk of zero rates is greater. Low long term interest rates are bad, as they represent low (or zero) growth. A sell off in bonds, especially low-risk bonds such as treasuries, is a move into interest-seeking assets, which is an appetite for risk. This is a good thing.
The economy is a balance sheet, however simplified or complexified it may be made. A low return on capital represents a low growth of capital. In some economies with less transparent capital markets, the link to official interest rates and actual growth is difficult at best, but in more developed capital markets the cost of capital is well proxied by the interest rate. And if the interest rate is low, the return on capital (at a macro level, totaling and summasing the micro level anecdote - micro level opinions go both ways) is low, and if that is low, then growth is low.
Extra: Bond price falls indicate a move into risk. This is especially good for people affected by stock price falls coupled with low interest rates - 401kers for example, approaching retirement age with money in growth. Interest rates (higher) make buying annuities a lot more attractive.