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As someone involved in this I feel obligated to explain some basic mechanics in Chinese IPO. 1. Unlike in US. The underwriter/issuer doesn't decide who get the
by nichtich 11y ago
As someone involved in this I feel obligated to explain some basic mechanics in Chinese IPO.
1. Unlike in US. The underwriter/issuer doesn't decide who get the allocation. Instead it's a 2 tier lottery which is purely based on how much you put in and the RNG. This is mainly to stop the perceived "corruption" they think exists in US where a nice relationship with the broker can get you a good allocation in a hot IPO, AND the fact that you can just announce the amount you want to buy without posting any money for that.
2. Because of 1, individual investors treat this as a lottery instead of a popularity contest as in US, so everyone wants in. As a result, to protect the individual investors, the equivalent of SEC of china has an unspoken rule that the IPO company must have a PE ratio below 23(don't ask why 23). With current avg PE in 70s range, it looked like a sure win for whoever get the lucky allocation.
3. SO! Whoever get any movable money will be paticipating in this IPO, because you are looking at a risk free 10% -20% annualized return. Point to me one guy who think that's not awesome and I'll buy him a skii trip in the Alps.
So, just imagine Apple went IPO today, and priced at 1/3 of PE as MSFT, AND everybody has the same chance of getting the shares at the IPO price as long as you have the money to backup your order. How much do you think will be in this lottery.
- brador 11y ago> looking at a risk free 10% -20% annualized return I understand everything except this part. Where did you get the 10-20% risk free annualized return?
- nullrouted 11y agoNothing is risk free...as soon as people start promising that you need to run. Every pyramid scheme in history has promised "risk free" returns.
- ISL 11y agoA ski trip to the Alps sounds awesome. Where do I sign up?
- throwaway41597 11y agoThanks for the explanation. It sounds like the stock is allocated to the entities willing to buy the largest amount though, not everybody has the same chance. If an investor asks for $70B of stock (through shell companies) even if the total offering is for only $1B, they'll get about 25% of this IPO without posting the $70B. It also sounds like the company going public has a big incentive to boost its short-term profits in the year leading to the IPO.