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How do all the "best" climate prediction models have squiggly lines after 10 years from now and not a broad range or something realistic. Their algorithims smel
by hop 17y ago
How do all the "best" climate prediction models have squiggly lines after 10 years from now and not a broad range or something realistic. Their algorithims smell of BS and way too many variables go into it to make them have anywhere near their plotted accuracy for 100 year projections. From wikpedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Warming_Predictions.png http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Warming_Predictions...
- petercooper 17y agoI'd be interested in that too. I wonder if they include things like predictable levels of solar activity, volcano eruptions, weather cycles and the like to get this. Or, worse, it might even be stochastic or "random walk"-like which would make the variations meaningless (see diagram on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk )..
- camccann 17y agoWell, the graph you link to doesn't include error bars or any other indication of uncertainty. Leaving out error margins and plotting only the mean is unfortunately common when presenting scientific results to general audiences; but that doesn't mean the actual scientists don't have the full data.
- azgolfer 17y agoAnyone who says they have a good computer model of the climate is either ignorant, stupid, corrupt or some combination thereof.