His biggest challenge is the primaries, where turnout is low and dominated by ideologically extreme party members (in theory, the more ideological you are, the

His biggest challenge is the primaries, where turnout is low and dominated by ideologically extreme party members (in theory, the more ideological you are, the more motivated you are to vote). For example, I read several years ago that the Tea Partiers accounted for half of GOP primary votes, even though they are a small portion of the electorate. His competitors are towing the extremist line, for example competing with each other over who can be most hawkish; he's not and it may cost him. Also, Fox News (and the Wall St Journal) have enormous influence among those voters and the desire and track record of nakely using it to promote their favorites; it's difficult to win without being on their good side. I'm not sure of Paul's status with Fox, but his positions don't seem like a good match. Opposing or equivocating on gay marriage, no matter what the rationale, and some of his other more conservative ideas, will be a tough sell in the general election.