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China’s New Silk Road: Implications for the US

50 points by istvan__ 11y ago

contingencies 11y ago
The US's post-WWII global dominance is dead. It has been eaten by changing technology, changing political landscape, its own aggression, the natural exhaustion of resources following the US-backed global expansion of unbridled capitalism, and dynastic powers lurking and pulling strings within its own political and economic sphere. The only question is, how fast will it adapt and how vindictive will the rest of the world be over the next century. News at 9.
- igravious 11y ago
  As a European I would like to see Europe begin afresh to pull its weight as a collective entity on the world stage. The first time Europeans went abroad was as colonialists, the second as neo-colonial capitalists, next time it will have to be as equals. The cynic might point out that (geopolitically) Europe has no other choice but to go abroad as equals. Europe has been eclipsed by its former American colony in the West and the Middle Kingdom's re-ascendancy eclipses Europe to the East. Where does that leave Europe? Once the global engine of growth for ideas, innovation, trade, you name it... Europe nowadays is looking a tad stale. Economics: Europe needs to close down tax havens within European borders and sphere of influence. Needs to negotiate a fiscal transfer framework to save the € and work to make the € more of a global reserve currency, that means fixing the € project so that the UK gives up the £. Implement a variant of the Tobin tax. Science: Europe needs to bulk up ESA and promote a private space industry. Needs to double down on projects like CERN and ITER. Needs to get Galileo up and running. Needs to invest more in nuclear and renewable power, wean itself off coal. Politics: Needs to re-make the UN security council. Needs to work harder towards sorting out Israel/Palestine. Needs to disengage from NATO. The accession of Turkey to the EU needs to happen soon. Welfare: Needs to move Europe as a whole towards the Scandanavian model which has shown itself to be fairer, more progressive, and more forward thinking. Perhaps needs to experiment with basic income because tech automation seems to be replacing jobs faster than they are being created.
  - rbanffy 11y ago
    That'll only happen if Europe moves as one and doesn't fragments itself back into competing states. Sadly, this risk seems real.
    - vdaniuk 11y ago
      Language barrier may be the single most important obstacle for further integration. English fluency is growing too slowly due to political reasons, so universal translators may be the one technology EU needs to become and act as a single entity.
      - jacquesm 11y ago
        I've lived for > 1 year at the time in quite a few countries of Europe. Europe is not a single entity and never will be. The language is a part of this, but the mentality from country to country is a far larger component. Within Europe you have cultures and mentalities as diverse as you can imagine. Language is the least of the problem. This is also why many well-meaning individuals, NGO's, governments and other institutions that try to apply knowledge about something that 'worked' in one EU country to another invariably fail. Comparing Greece to Sweden, The UK to Romania, Serbia to Portugal, Italy to Scotland, Poland to France and Spain to Germany can shed some light on what makes - and keeps - Europe as fragmented as it is. The Euro, with all its faults, has done more for European unification than any other measure, Schengen being a close second. Now we're looking at a slow but sure decline in that feeling. Most people have an identity rooted in some rough geographical location, I've yet to hear someone call themselves a European first.
        igravious 11y ago
        Exactly. € and Schengen erase currency and national boundaries. They rock! Whenever I travel to a country within the EU that is not in the €-zone I cringe. While cultures and mentalities _do_ indeed vary quite a lot let that be seen as a _good_ and healthy thing. I consider myself European first, British Islander second. Have to figure out what other boundaries can be erased while at the same time respecting difference. More integration and yet more federation at the same time. The EU could pour money into pre-third level foreign language learning and into machine translation projects? That'd be cool.
- onewaystreet 11y ago
  Nothing WWIII won't fix. But seriously, whose going to challenge the US? China? They are on even shakier ground than the US economically and socially. Europe? Another decade of recession.
- tomjen3 11y ago
  What? The US power is greater than ever. Yeah China isn't as poor as it was, but the US still has the greatest ever army navy and air force and a very large soft power projection - large enough to dominate almost every country on the planet.
  - est 11y ago
    It was also the case before 9/11. Then 9/11 happened. Military power isn't everything. Metaphor: http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/887/945/2dd.jpg http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/887/945/2dd...
- mineshaftgap 11y ago
  >The US's post-WWII global dominance is dead. Holy moly can people get confused. It is almost as if Europeans don't realize that the West operates together. The only possible threat to US power is a split with Europe. But that would require a lot of effort and cause massive needless suffering for Europeans.
recychlore 11y ago
Unfortunate title, considering the recent Ross Ulbricht life sentence. I thought the topic was going to be about internet black markets.
- chobo 11y ago
  I've had Google alerts for "Silk Road" for the past 3 or 4 years. My focus is on black markets but I've inadvertently learned a lot about China's development plans (and a few cool historical articles as well).
nshung 11y ago
Do not forget that China has already completed two massive pipelines(one gas and one oil) from western port of Myanmar to Kunming, Yunnan, China to bypass the Strait of Malacca and they are already fully operating.[1] And for your conspiracy thirst, there has been massive shoutout internationally for people known as Rohingyas from Myanmar who face persecution, discrimination and pre-genocidal acts being committed by Myanmar government lately. And you know where Rohingyas people actually live in Myanmar? It is at the very start of the two Chinese pipelines and the province is called Rakhine State in Myanmar.[2] So the US is pressuring Myanmar very very hard on this case. [3] Two things can happen from this. 1) If Myanmar resists US pressure and doing the same things just as they are treating these people now, US can just say, "hey buds, we've told you. Human rights to these people or they will human rights you". So any violence that might arise from this can be justified. Actually Myanmar government has been exceptionally stupid in handling Rohingya case. This mess has now become an international case. Thats their fault. 2) Myanmar succumbs to US pressure and grant some human rights to Rohingya(eg. giving them ethnic status, grant citizenship and that shit). Rohingya may rises and clashes with ethnic Rakhine group there to take the revenge. The region will be destabilised and this will give Chinese a huge headache for their hardcore investments. [1] http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericrmeyer/2015/02/09/oil-and-gas-china-takes-a-shortcut/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericrmeyer/2015/02/09/oil-and-ga... [2] https://www.google.no/maps/place/Rakhine,+Burma/@19.4183961,93.5491945,5z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x30b0c1a60a38ad3b:0x2ef2881316474753 https://www.google.no/maps/place/Rakhine,+Burma/@19.4183961,... [3] http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/state-department-rohingya-refugee-crisis-emergency http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/state-department-rohingya-refugee...
mark_l_watson 11y ago
Great article. I was listening to a Katherine Austin Fitts interview on solari.com last night and she and her guest were making the same points: it is not possible for the USA to contain developing markets. There is too much energetic development in emerging countries, all of them wanting to get out from under the USA dollar and military hegemony. She equates central planning activities by my government, the federal reserve, etc. to Soviet Union style central planning. Neither works long term. Free markets are more efficient than central planning.

50 points by istvan__ 11y ago

The US's post-WWII global dominance is dead. It has been eaten by changing technology, changing political landscape, its own aggression, the natural exhaustion of resources following the US-backed global expansion of unbridled capitalism, and dynastic powers lurking and pulling strings within its own political and economic sphere. The only question is, how fast will it adapt and how vindictive will the rest of the world be over the next century. News at 9.

igravious 11y ago
As a European I would like to see Europe begin afresh to pull its weight as a collective entity on the world stage. The first time Europeans went abroad was as colonialists, the second as neo-colonial capitalists, next time it will have to be as equals. The cynic might point out that (geopolitically) Europe has no other choice but to go abroad as equals. Europe has been eclipsed by its former American colony in the West and the Middle Kingdom's re-ascendancy eclipses Europe to the East. Where does that leave Europe? Once the global engine of growth for ideas, innovation, trade, you name it... Europe nowadays is looking a tad stale. Economics: Europe needs to close down tax havens within European borders and sphere of influence. Needs to negotiate a fiscal transfer framework to save the € and work to make the € more of a global reserve currency, that means fixing the € project so that the UK gives up the £. Implement a variant of the Tobin tax. Science: Europe needs to bulk up ESA and promote a private space industry. Needs to double down on projects like CERN and ITER. Needs to get Galileo up and running. Needs to invest more in nuclear and renewable power, wean itself off coal. Politics: Needs to re-make the UN security council. Needs to work harder towards sorting out Israel/Palestine. Needs to disengage from NATO. The accession of Turkey to the EU needs to happen soon. Welfare: Needs to move Europe as a whole towards the Scandanavian model which has shown itself to be fairer, more progressive, and more forward thinking. Perhaps needs to experiment with basic income because tech automation seems to be replacing jobs faster than they are being created.
- rbanffy 11y ago
  That'll only happen if Europe moves as one and doesn't fragments itself back into competing states. Sadly, this risk seems real.
  - vdaniuk 11y ago
    Language barrier may be the single most important obstacle for further integration. English fluency is growing too slowly due to political reasons, so universal translators may be the one technology EU needs to become and act as a single entity.
    - jacquesm 11y ago
      I've lived for > 1 year at the time in quite a few countries of Europe. Europe is not a single entity and never will be. The language is a part of this, but the mentality from country to country is a far larger component. Within Europe you have cultures and mentalities as diverse as you can imagine. Language is the least of the problem. This is also why many well-meaning individuals, NGO's, governments and other institutions that try to apply knowledge about something that 'worked' in one EU country to another invariably fail. Comparing Greece to Sweden, The UK to Romania, Serbia to Portugal, Italy to Scotland, Poland to France and Spain to Germany can shed some light on what makes - and keeps - Europe as fragmented as it is. The Euro, with all its faults, has done more for European unification than any other measure, Schengen being a close second. Now we're looking at a slow but sure decline in that feeling. Most people have an identity rooted in some rough geographical location, I've yet to hear someone call themselves a European first.
      - igravious 11y ago
        Exactly. € and Schengen erase currency and national boundaries. They rock! Whenever I travel to a country within the EU that is not in the €-zone I cringe. While cultures and mentalities _do_ indeed vary quite a lot let that be seen as a _good_ and healthy thing. I consider myself European first, British Islander second. Have to figure out what other boundaries can be erased while at the same time respecting difference. More integration and yet more federation at the same time. The EU could pour money into pre-third level foreign language learning and into machine translation projects? That'd be cool.
onewaystreet 11y ago
Nothing WWIII won't fix. But seriously, whose going to challenge the US? China? They are on even shakier ground than the US economically and socially. Europe? Another decade of recession.
tomjen3 11y ago
What? The US power is greater than ever. Yeah China isn't as poor as it was, but the US still has the greatest ever army navy and air force and a very large soft power projection - large enough to dominate almost every country on the planet.
- est 11y ago
  It was also the case before 9/11. Then 9/11 happened. Military power isn't everything. Metaphor: http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/887/945/2dd.jpg http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/887/945/2dd...
mineshaftgap 11y ago
>The US's post-WWII global dominance is dead. Holy moly can people get confused. It is almost as if Europeans don't realize that the West operates together. The only possible threat to US power is a split with Europe. But that would require a lot of effort and cause massive needless suffering for Europeans.

recychlore 11y ago

Unfortunate title, considering the recent Ross Ulbricht life sentence. I thought the topic was going to be about internet black markets.

chobo 11y ago
I've had Google alerts for "Silk Road" for the past 3 or 4 years. My focus is on black markets but I've inadvertently learned a lot about China's development plans (and a few cool historical articles as well).

nshung 11y ago

Do not forget that China has already completed two massive pipelines(one gas and one oil) from western port of Myanmar to Kunming, Yunnan, China to bypass the Strait of Malacca and they are already fully operating.[1] And for your conspiracy thirst, there has been massive shoutout internationally for people known as Rohingyas from Myanmar who face persecution, discrimination and pre-genocidal acts being committed by Myanmar government lately. And you know where Rohingyas people actually live in Myanmar? It is at the very start of the two Chinese pipelines and the province is called Rakhine State in Myanmar.[2] So the US is pressuring Myanmar very very hard on this case. [3] Two things can happen from this. 1) If Myanmar resists US pressure and doing the same things just as they are treating these people now, US can just say, "hey buds, we've told you. Human rights to these people or they will human rights you". So any violence that might arise from this can be justified. Actually Myanmar government has been exceptionally stupid in handling Rohingya case. This mess has now become an international case. Thats their fault. 2) Myanmar succumbs to US pressure and grant some human rights to Rohingya(eg. giving them ethnic status, grant citizenship and that shit). Rohingya may rises and clashes with ethnic Rakhine group there to take the revenge. The region will be destabilised and this will give Chinese a huge headache for their hardcore investments. [1] http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericrmeyer/2015/02/09/oil-and-gas-china-takes-a-shortcut/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericrmeyer/2015/02/09/oil-and-ga... [2] https://www.google.no/maps/place/Rakhine,+Burma/@19.4183961,93.5491945,5z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x30b0c1a60a38ad3b:0x2ef2881316474753 https://www.google.no/maps/place/Rakhine,+Burma/@19.4183961,... [3] http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/state-department-rohingya-refugee-crisis-emergency http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/state-department-rohingya-refugee...

mark_l_watson 11y ago

Great article. I was listening to a Katherine Austin Fitts interview on solari.com last night and she and her guest were making the same points: it is not possible for the USA to contain developing markets. There is too much energetic development in emerging countries, all of them wanting to get out from under the USA dollar and military hegemony. She equates central planning activities by my government, the federal reserve, etc. to Soviet Union style central planning. Neither works long term. Free markets are more efficient than central planning.