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Secular stagnation. Basically, what happened to Japan in the previous decades is now going to happen to much of the developed world. A prolonged period of no gr

Secular stagnation. Basically, what happened to Japan in the previous decades is now going to happen to much of the developed world. A prolonged period of no growth with no monetary policy tools to help solve the problem, and no political will to implement a more active fiscal policy.

fweespeech 11y ago
Pretty much. Its not possible to recover from in the near term because the only reason it hasn't been worse is the fact we've been having the FED use every policy tool it could think of. http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2014/11/secular-stagnation http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2014/11/secular-st... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-fears-global-economy-is-suffering-secular-stagnation-10161154.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-fears-gl...
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  Perhaps its time we admit that growth isn't a requirement to an ever-incrasing quality of life? And investigate the transition to steady state economies? Who am I kidding, that'll never happen.
  - fweespeech 11y ago
    An ever increasing quality of life, in the western world, honestly isn't needed. The Quality of Life for the Middle Class in the West is good enough. The problem is, to bring everyone up to the 2015 standard of the West's middle class requires a helluva alot of growth.
    - scarmig 11y ago
      From today: India’s Economic Growth Hits Four-Year High http://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-economic-growth-hits-four-year-high-1432902911 http://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-economic-growth-hits-four... "India’s output growth accelerated to 7.5% last quarter, putting it ahead of China as the world’s fastest-growing large economy." To be fair, some of the data presented is faked, but it's in the ballpark. It'd be good if India and the developing world were all growing faster, but they're still coming along at a nice clip.
      - fweespeech 11y ago
        Yeah, but its also the impoverished and "lower class" in the US and the rest of the West. You need $30-$40k [depending on where you live in the US] per Adult to be middle class.
      - known 11y ago
        Little better than Ethiopia; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-2480424/VISUAL-EDIT-India-little-better-Ethiopia.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-24804...
  - thewarrior 11y ago
    But no growth will make inequality much harder to digest. Noone minds inequality as much , as long as he is assured that his lot will improve some day. Take that away and it's only a matter of time before things boil over.
  - randomname2 11y ago
    Well, just saying, but "no growth" hasn't really been working out for Greece lately.
    - toomuchtodo 11y ago
      Ahh, forgive me. I had thought it was their crushing debt payments that are impossible to service thats causing their economic hardships. Greece will be in a much better position as soon as it exits the Euro.
      - seanflyon 11y ago
        > crushing debt payments Growth helps a lot with that problem.
        toomuchtodo 11y ago
        What industry would you suggest Greece grow its way out of debt with besides possibly tourism?
        seanflyon 11y ago
        I'm assuming that Greece has a fair share of intelligent adults capable of being productive.
        the_why_of_y 11y ago
        ... and the problem isn't that Greece has experienced no growth, the problem is that Greece has negative 25% GDP growth since 2008. http://countryeconomy.com/gdp/greece http://countryeconomy.com/gdp/greece Of course the debt-to-GDP ratio went up accordingly.
  - deciplex 11y ago
    It's hard to make a case for or against economic growth, when all the economic growth of the past 30 years has been shoveled into the gaping maw of the ruling class. That said, I don't want a steady-state economy - not in the long term anyway (i.e. thousands of years). We should not exhaust our resources on Earth, of course, and could do a much better job there, but eventually our species should come to harness the power of galaxies, and that will require economic expansion.
eli_gottlieb 11y ago
I do have to ask: who says there's no political will? Japan is unusual in having an extremely stagnant, consensus-based, establishment politics. In the Western world, labor movements against the current establishment have been gaining steam and local victories like they haven't done in decades. If political will stands in the way of getting out of the stagnation, it will be moved or removed.
- littletimmy 11y ago
  There is no political will in the sense that people in power don't have the will, and the people with will don't have power. I'm all for optimism, but I doubt we're going to see a sudden reversal of the oligarchy and power restored to the people anytime soon. I support labor movements, but I doubt they can supplant the lobbying of the corporations. If there will be any change at all, it will come about when corporate leaders put pressure on the government.
  - deciplex 11y ago
    He does have a point, though: Japan is probably (and hopefully) an anomaly in how they dealt with the crisis. It's one of the last places on Earth where Confucian ethics still hold a great deal of sway at all levels of society (for now, at least). And that ideology has its strong points, but it is hardly compatible with democracy. It is probably not a good example for how most of the West will deal with the same problem, though whether we do a better job of it remains to be seen.

fweespeech 11y ago

Pretty much. Its not possible to recover from in the near term because the only reason it hasn't been worse is the fact we've been having the FED use every policy tool it could think of. http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2014/11/secular-stagnation http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2014/11/secular-st... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-fears-global-economy-is-suffering-secular-stagnation-10161154.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-fears-gl...

toomuchtodo 11y ago
Perhaps its time we admit that growth isn't a requirement to an ever-incrasing quality of life? And investigate the transition to steady state economies? Who am I kidding, that'll never happen.
- fweespeech 11y ago
  An ever increasing quality of life, in the western world, honestly isn't needed. The Quality of Life for the Middle Class in the West is good enough. The problem is, to bring everyone up to the 2015 standard of the West's middle class requires a helluva alot of growth.
  - scarmig 11y ago
    From today: India’s Economic Growth Hits Four-Year High http://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-economic-growth-hits-four-year-high-1432902911 http://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-economic-growth-hits-four... "India’s output growth accelerated to 7.5% last quarter, putting it ahead of China as the world’s fastest-growing large economy." To be fair, some of the data presented is faked, but it's in the ballpark. It'd be good if India and the developing world were all growing faster, but they're still coming along at a nice clip.
    - fweespeech 11y ago
      Yeah, but its also the impoverished and "lower class" in the US and the rest of the West. You need $30-$40k [depending on where you live in the US] per Adult to be middle class.
    - known 11y ago
      Little better than Ethiopia; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-2480424/VISUAL-EDIT-India-little-better-Ethiopia.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-24804...
- thewarrior 11y ago
  But no growth will make inequality much harder to digest. Noone minds inequality as much , as long as he is assured that his lot will improve some day. Take that away and it's only a matter of time before things boil over.
- randomname2 11y ago
  Well, just saying, but "no growth" hasn't really been working out for Greece lately.
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    Ahh, forgive me. I had thought it was their crushing debt payments that are impossible to service thats causing their economic hardships. Greece will be in a much better position as soon as it exits the Euro.
    - seanflyon 11y ago
      > crushing debt payments Growth helps a lot with that problem.
      - toomuchtodo 11y ago
        What industry would you suggest Greece grow its way out of debt with besides possibly tourism?
        seanflyon 11y ago
        I'm assuming that Greece has a fair share of intelligent adults capable of being productive.
      - the_why_of_y 11y ago
        ... and the problem isn't that Greece has experienced no growth, the problem is that Greece has negative 25% GDP growth since 2008. http://countryeconomy.com/gdp/greece http://countryeconomy.com/gdp/greece Of course the debt-to-GDP ratio went up accordingly.
- deciplex 11y ago
  It's hard to make a case for or against economic growth, when all the economic growth of the past 30 years has been shoveled into the gaping maw of the ruling class. That said, I don't want a steady-state economy - not in the long term anyway (i.e. thousands of years). We should not exhaust our resources on Earth, of course, and could do a much better job there, but eventually our species should come to harness the power of galaxies, and that will require economic expansion.

eli_gottlieb 11y ago

I do have to ask: who says there's no political will? Japan is unusual in having an extremely stagnant, consensus-based, establishment politics. In the Western world, labor movements against the current establishment have been gaining steam and local victories like they haven't done in decades. If political will stands in the way of getting out of the stagnation, it will be moved or removed.

littletimmy 11y ago
There is no political will in the sense that people in power don't have the will, and the people with will don't have power. I'm all for optimism, but I doubt we're going to see a sudden reversal of the oligarchy and power restored to the people anytime soon. I support labor movements, but I doubt they can supplant the lobbying of the corporations. If there will be any change at all, it will come about when corporate leaders put pressure on the government.
- deciplex 11y ago
  He does have a point, though: Japan is probably (and hopefully) an anomaly in how they dealt with the crisis. It's one of the last places on Earth where Confucian ethics still hold a great deal of sway at all levels of society (for now, at least). And that ideology has its strong points, but it is hardly compatible with democracy. It is probably not a good example for how most of the West will deal with the same problem, though whether we do a better job of it remains to be seen.