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Google is showing off Android M dev previews while devices sold new last fall in major US retailers are still running KitKat with no updates from Google or thei

Google is showing off Android M dev previews while devices sold new last fall in major US retailers are still running KitKat with no updates from Google or their providers. They continue to actively create the "fractured" world of Android. In other words, that's cool about Android M, but most people aren't even using L. (40% on K, 9% on L whose preview was the 2014 IO) Can Google not poach one or two of Apple's negotiators to go to the right meetings at Motorola, Verizon, etc to talk about updates?

digi_owl 11y ago
Only way i see Google getting them all onboard is revenue sharing from Play based on what Android version the person is using.
- wongarsu 11y ago
  Or google could just stop playing nice, they practically own the platform after all. If they would say "either you supply updates for two years or you are not allowed to preinstall google apps on new devices" the issue would be over.
  - digi_owl 11y ago
    And watch Samsung go Tizen over night, HTC partner up with Microsoft, etc etc etc. Damn it, Android without Google is already big in China. And lets not forget that Amazon is maintaining what amounts to a fork for their device range. Google can't really play hardball unless they want to go full Apple. In essence Android has gotten where it is by being more accommodating to OEMs etc than the competition. Something akin to what MS was doing until they went retard with Windows Mobile 7.
    - threeseed 11y ago
      Samsung/HTC are never going to just abandon Android arguably no matter what Google does. People have invested money in apps and content which locks them into that platform. Tizen is a non-starter (nobody is building apps for it). And Microsoft is still struggling for traction.
      - castell 11y ago
        Most new Samsung devices (including all SmartTV and SmartWatch) already use Tizen (based on an evolution of Samsung's Bada). Samsung could switch to Tizen anytime given it features a compatibility layer. People don't buy "Android" devices, they buy by the brand name of the manufacturer e.g. "Samsung".
vardump 11y ago
> Can Google not poach one or two of Apple's negotiators to go to the right meetings at Motorola, Verizon, etc to talk about updates? I don't understand why things like these are necessary in the USA. Why should network operator have control to which version you're running? Most other places you can just get new firmware directly from manufacturer.
- CountSessine 11y ago
  I don't understand it either. How should the carrier have any say/input into when the firmware on these phones is updated?
  - pjmlp 11y ago
    Because they also do firmware customizations with their own apps, services and UI according to their marketing material.
- austenallred 11y ago
  The thing that's confusing to me is that the carriers don't automatically default to the newest version of the OS. Even if it weren't a contractual obligation, I can't imagine, say, the AT&T store loading a phone right now with iOS 7
  - vardump 11y ago
    So, you'd be fine with your ISP being the gatekeeper for which operating system(s) and version(s) you can run on your computer? The U.S. system where operators are such gatekeepers for mobile devices is an anomaly. It doesn't need to be so, and it is not so elsewhere. I don't understand the overall picture of the U.S. telecom industry in the first place. Slow speeds, data caps, bad coverage, high prices and control freak carriers.
    - austenallred 11y ago
      I didn't say anything about them "controlling" what I can run on my computer/phone. They load it with a default that you can change. That doesn't inhibit my choice in the slightest. But a large number of people don't care to change their OS from the default, so the ecosystem gets loaded with a large number of those phones. I just don't understand why the telecoms wouldn't use the newest OS as the default.
kllrnohj 11y ago
Your post was word for word identical to posts made 2 years about KitKat when it was released. Only instead being compared against Gingerbread. And several years before THAT when Gingerbread was released people were saying it about Donut & Eclair. So yes you'll have to wait ~2 years for the majority to be on M or higher. Oh well. Does that suck? Yeah. Is it a major, show stopping, "omg google why haven't you devoted 100% resources to fixing this?" issue? No, that's absurd. And why do you think Apple has negotiators for this? Apple doesn't license iOS to anyone. They've never attempted to solve this problem. Ever. For anything.
- threeseed 11y ago
  I have no idea what your point is. Why shouldn't Google be devoting resources to solving this issue ? Being unable to upgrade is a massive security risk and prevents developers from rolling out new and interesting features in their apps. It is largely a solved problem. You have a core OS/SDK which is upgradeable and some sort of plugin style architecture around it for themes/new features. Sure some OEMs may ignore it and fork the OS but then Google has the leverage of Play Services / Android brand they can use as a stick. And whether iOS is licensable or not is irrelevant. For their particular phone it is upgradeable without carrier intervention. Why is every Android phone different ?
  - mappu 11y ago
    Upgrading the core OS is hard mostly because new android versions rely on certain new kernel features; and the new kernels break backward compatibility with proprietary drivers. There was a story posted a few weeks back about how a certain (Samsung or LG?) phone had added new members to the middle of a kernel struct, for the benefit of their camera driver. It hamstrung a lot of the community reverse engineering work to port a new kernel to the device.
serve_yay 11y ago
The situation is so bad that they announce all this new stuff, and I think, that's great and all but who cares. A few thousand people will use this stuff and everyone else is 2-3 versions back. And they don't care, either.
- krschultz 11y ago
  What are you basing this comment on? The app I build had thousands of Lollipop users today alone. Depending on how you define "version", 2 versions back is Jelly Bean. 90% of our users are on Jelly Bean or newer. 3 versions back is Ice Cream Sandwich, which in my case includes 99% of our users, and we only dropped Gingerbread support Christmas of 2014.
krschultz 11y ago
Damn lies and statistics. The Android dashboard numbers are always super pessimistic on upgrade rate. I am the lead for an app with >250,000 installs. Over 45% of our usage is coming from Lollipop. The rest is JB & KK. We see <6% ICS for the last 30 days. I know other major apps that have even better numbers. Looking at my data, L usage was basically nil in January 2015. There was slow growth from there until April, when we saw an inflection point in the number of Lollipop users. This aligned with the release of several Samsung updates that pushed Lollipop to some of the most popular devices out there. If you want publicly available numbers, I would rely on Mixpanel[1] not the Android dashboard. And even this understates it, as of writing this comment Mixpanel is not including 5.1 in the Lollipop numbers which is cutting 2-3% off that. [2] [1] https://mixpanel.com/trends/#report/android_os_adoption https://mixpanel.com/trends/#report/android_os_adoption [2] https://twitter.com/mixpanel/status/604025242529308672 https://twitter.com/mixpanel/status/604025242529308672 The narrative about Android fragmentation is really out of touch with what I experience on a daily basis.
- rob_lh 11y ago
  That's some awesome data, thanks for sharing! I have to imagine geo matters here too. China, Latin America, and Africa have huge Android growth (though even then a huge chunk must be AOSP) but I would guess it's mostly older OS versions coming from the smaller OEMs that are spawning so much of the growth. Who knows if those would ever be updated, but it's less relevant unless you're a pervasive, global app (like FB or Gmail).
- kuschku 11y ago
  As someone developing another Android app, a FOSS app for an IRC bouncer: About 25% of our users are below ICS even. Yes, one quarter of our users are on Gingerbread. And then the rest is shared equally between JB, KK and L.
  - erispoe 11y ago
    I'm curious of what kind of app you're developing. You and krschultz seem to work on apps adressing a quite different audience.

digi_owl 11y ago

Only way i see Google getting them all onboard is revenue sharing from Play based on what Android version the person is using.

wongarsu 11y ago
Or google could just stop playing nice, they practically own the platform after all. If they would say "either you supply updates for two years or you are not allowed to preinstall google apps on new devices" the issue would be over.
- digi_owl 11y ago
  And watch Samsung go Tizen over night, HTC partner up with Microsoft, etc etc etc. Damn it, Android without Google is already big in China. And lets not forget that Amazon is maintaining what amounts to a fork for their device range. Google can't really play hardball unless they want to go full Apple. In essence Android has gotten where it is by being more accommodating to OEMs etc than the competition. Something akin to what MS was doing until they went retard with Windows Mobile 7.
  - threeseed 11y ago
    Samsung/HTC are never going to just abandon Android arguably no matter what Google does. People have invested money in apps and content which locks them into that platform. Tizen is a non-starter (nobody is building apps for it). And Microsoft is still struggling for traction.
    - castell 11y ago
      Most new Samsung devices (including all SmartTV and SmartWatch) already use Tizen (based on an evolution of Samsung's Bada). Samsung could switch to Tizen anytime given it features a compatibility layer. People don't buy "Android" devices, they buy by the brand name of the manufacturer e.g. "Samsung".

vardump 11y ago

> Can Google not poach one or two of Apple's negotiators to go to the right meetings at Motorola, Verizon, etc to talk about updates? I don't understand why things like these are necessary in the USA. Why should network operator have control to which version you're running? Most other places you can just get new firmware directly from manufacturer.

CountSessine 11y ago
I don't understand it either. How should the carrier have any say/input into when the firmware on these phones is updated?
- pjmlp 11y ago
  Because they also do firmware customizations with their own apps, services and UI according to their marketing material.
austenallred 11y ago
The thing that's confusing to me is that the carriers don't automatically default to the newest version of the OS. Even if it weren't a contractual obligation, I can't imagine, say, the AT&T store loading a phone right now with iOS 7
- vardump 11y ago
  So, you'd be fine with your ISP being the gatekeeper for which operating system(s) and version(s) you can run on your computer? The U.S. system where operators are such gatekeepers for mobile devices is an anomaly. It doesn't need to be so, and it is not so elsewhere. I don't understand the overall picture of the U.S. telecom industry in the first place. Slow speeds, data caps, bad coverage, high prices and control freak carriers.
  - austenallred 11y ago
    I didn't say anything about them "controlling" what I can run on my computer/phone. They load it with a default that you can change. That doesn't inhibit my choice in the slightest. But a large number of people don't care to change their OS from the default, so the ecosystem gets loaded with a large number of those phones. I just don't understand why the telecoms wouldn't use the newest OS as the default.

kllrnohj 11y ago

Your post was word for word identical to posts made 2 years about KitKat when it was released. Only instead being compared against Gingerbread. And several years before THAT when Gingerbread was released people were saying it about Donut & Eclair. So yes you'll have to wait ~2 years for the majority to be on M or higher. Oh well. Does that suck? Yeah. Is it a major, show stopping, "omg google why haven't you devoted 100% resources to fixing this?" issue? No, that's absurd. And why do you think Apple has negotiators for this? Apple doesn't license iOS to anyone. They've never attempted to solve this problem. Ever. For anything.

threeseed 11y ago
I have no idea what your point is. Why shouldn't Google be devoting resources to solving this issue ? Being unable to upgrade is a massive security risk and prevents developers from rolling out new and interesting features in their apps. It is largely a solved problem. You have a core OS/SDK which is upgradeable and some sort of plugin style architecture around it for themes/new features. Sure some OEMs may ignore it and fork the OS but then Google has the leverage of Play Services / Android brand they can use as a stick. And whether iOS is licensable or not is irrelevant. For their particular phone it is upgradeable without carrier intervention. Why is every Android phone different ?
- mappu 11y ago
  Upgrading the core OS is hard mostly because new android versions rely on certain new kernel features; and the new kernels break backward compatibility with proprietary drivers. There was a story posted a few weeks back about how a certain (Samsung or LG?) phone had added new members to the middle of a kernel struct, for the benefit of their camera driver. It hamstrung a lot of the community reverse engineering work to port a new kernel to the device.

serve_yay 11y ago

The situation is so bad that they announce all this new stuff, and I think, that's great and all but who cares. A few thousand people will use this stuff and everyone else is 2-3 versions back. And they don't care, either.

krschultz 11y ago
What are you basing this comment on? The app I build had thousands of Lollipop users today alone. Depending on how you define "version", 2 versions back is Jelly Bean. 90% of our users are on Jelly Bean or newer. 3 versions back is Ice Cream Sandwich, which in my case includes 99% of our users, and we only dropped Gingerbread support Christmas of 2014.

krschultz 11y ago

Damn lies and statistics. The Android dashboard numbers are always super pessimistic on upgrade rate. I am the lead for an app with >250,000 installs. Over 45% of our usage is coming from Lollipop. The rest is JB & KK. We see <6% ICS for the last 30 days. I know other major apps that have even better numbers. Looking at my data, L usage was basically nil in January 2015. There was slow growth from there until April, when we saw an inflection point in the number of Lollipop users. This aligned with the release of several Samsung updates that pushed Lollipop to some of the most popular devices out there. If you want publicly available numbers, I would rely on Mixpanel[1] not the Android dashboard. And even this understates it, as of writing this comment Mixpanel is not including 5.1 in the Lollipop numbers which is cutting 2-3% off that. [2] [1] https://mixpanel.com/trends/#report/android_os_adoption https://mixpanel.com/trends/#report/android_os_adoption [2] https://twitter.com/mixpanel/status/604025242529308672 https://twitter.com/mixpanel/status/604025242529308672 The narrative about Android fragmentation is really out of touch with what I experience on a daily basis.

rob_lh 11y ago
That's some awesome data, thanks for sharing! I have to imagine geo matters here too. China, Latin America, and Africa have huge Android growth (though even then a huge chunk must be AOSP) but I would guess it's mostly older OS versions coming from the smaller OEMs that are spawning so much of the growth. Who knows if those would ever be updated, but it's less relevant unless you're a pervasive, global app (like FB or Gmail).
kuschku 11y ago
As someone developing another Android app, a FOSS app for an IRC bouncer: About 25% of our users are below ICS even. Yes, one quarter of our users are on Gingerbread. And then the rest is shared equally between JB, KK and L.
- erispoe 11y ago
  I'm curious of what kind of app you're developing. You and krschultz seem to work on apps adressing a quite different audience.