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<quote> 77% of people charged with a misdemeanor in New York City were released on their own recognizance, and the other 23% were offered bail. Within that 23%,

by ploxiln 11y ago

<quote> 77% of people charged with a misdemeanor in New York City were released on their own recognizance, and the other 23% were offered bail. Within that 23%, bail amounts widely varied: Of the 26,459 cases in which bail was set, 19,137 -- or 72.3% -- the bail amount was $1,000 or less. “Despite [this] relatively low bail amount,” writes the report, “the overwhelming preponderance of defendants required to post that bail amount were jailed because they could not do so.” </quote> How much cheaper can bail get? You can hardly get an apartment anywhere in NYC for less than $1000/month. These people must make and spend more than that in a month - it's just the strangely Average American Lifestyle to spend money as soon as you get it. Any amount that these poor people could afford isn't going to be an effective bail. These kind of people can only afford something that fits in a week's paycheck, and losing a week's paycheck isn't that big a deal, they've done without before.

nyolfen 11y ago
just a hunch, but perhaps part of the reason they're poor is that they have to spend over a grand on rent
rpedroso 11y ago
The minimum wage in New York is $8.75. Someone working 40 hours/week for 52 weeks/year, which is a generous estimate due to how many minimum wage employers hire and schedule employees, would earn $18,200 every year. After 15% in federal income taxes, that leaves us with $15,470. Let's assume they pay nothing in state/local income taxes. Let's also assume they live alone and have no children or family to care for-- all their expenses are their own. Assuming that they pay $1000/mo for their apartment (let's be generous -- this includes rent and utilities), that leaves them with $3,470 every year to cover all other living expenses. If I spend $50/week on food (which is conservative for NYC), that adds up to $2400, which leaves us at $1070. At that salary, if you spend more than $70 in a YEAR on clothing, healthcare, toothpaste, public transit), then you won't be able to afford $1000 in bail. I spend more than that every year on public transit alone (MTA 30-day pass costs $116.50 -> $1398.00/year). It's really not hard to see how a $1000 bail can be out of reach for the poor in New York.
- tanderson92 11y ago
  Not to put too fine a point on it, since overall your calculations seem fair and your conclusions reasonable: but at $18200 with $10300 in deductions and exemptions the person's AGI would be only $7900 and hence all of their taxable income falls into the 10% marginal tax bracket. Of course this neglects payroll taxes (you did as well) but also ignores the EITC so suppose these roughly cancel. This results in the tax burden being $790 rather than your calculated $2730. That $2000 is a huge deal to a minimum-wage earner. Your back of the envelope calculation in this specific area was off by 450%.
  - rpedroso 11y ago
    Yeah I figured I would be off by a fair bit off when it came to the income tax math. I'm not sure whether there would additionally be some tax burden due to NY state income tax and NY city income tax. You're right that $2000 is huge to a minimum-wage earner -- that's almost 11% more disposable income. On the flip side, minimum-wage earners are more likely to be employed part-time instead of full-time, but only 10% and 2% respectively of those groups are paid minimum wage or below, so it's pretty tricky to come up with a good estimate here.[1] My main goal was to illustrate that the poor spend disproportionately more of their income on basic needs compared to the middle class, and inspire some empathy when we discuss the economics of poverty. [1] http://www.bls.gov/cps/minwage2013.pdf http://www.bls.gov/cps/minwage2013.pdf
- jeremyt 11y ago
  Your numbers aren't quite right. The first $6000 of income is the standard deduction and is taxed at 0%. Then, the next $10,000 is taxed at 10%, and the remainder up to the next $30,000 is taxed at 15%. You have substantially overstated the amount of taxes this hypothetical person is paying. And that's not taking into account that they probably qualify for the earned income tax credit.
  - tanderson92 11y ago
    The standard deduction is $6300 and you missed the personal exemption at $4000.
ryandrake 11y ago
I don't know many people who can comfortably absorb a sudden, unexpected $1,000 bill for anything, whether it be a car repair or bail. People plan their month of expenses around their paychecks, and often have close to $0 left over when the next one comes. Consider yourself lucky if you can afford an emergency fund, but most people live paycheck to paycheck.
- jeltz 11y ago
  As an engineer it easy to lose track of what people can afford, but I do think most people here in Sweden can afford an unexpected $1,000 bill. I found a study which says that 12% live in households that have a buffer of less than 10,000 SEK (1,175 USD). Most people here do not live from paycheck to paycheck. The real issues are that the poor commit more crimes and that they also are more heavily targeted by the justice system, plus that the US have larger problems with poverty than Sweden.
mikeash 11y ago
I think you're getting downvoted because it's easy to read your comment as blaming the poor for their predicament, but you raise a good point. The goal is to allow people to go home until their trial, but guarantee that they will actually show up for their trial. For many people, especially poor people, there is no bail amount that will accomplish this. It's either so much that it can't be paid, or it's so little that there isn't a great incentive to show up in court. There's no in between. This seems to point to a big problem with the entire concept of bail.
- jonknee 11y ago
  It would be interesting to see what would happen if you paid people for appearing. It costs a lot of money to jail someone (NY spends $60k/yr per inmate or $164 a day!) which is currently the only alternative if they can't pay bail.
  - bcassedy 11y ago
    That seems like a great idea! Though that could also create perverse incentives to get arrested in the first place. Those would have to be carefully balanced.
- ploxiln 11y ago
  Indeed. I don't mind it much :) Also trying to not meta-comment too much ("I know I'll get down-voted but...")
jonknee 11y ago
America loves to arrest poor people, it's not surprising that they have trouble making bail. I would bet a very large number of the people unable to come up with $1000 or less were unemployed. Additionally, Republicans don't trust giving poor people cash, so the meager welfare system we have involves things that can't be used for bail (food stamps, discounted housing, medical care, etc).

by ploxiln 11y ago

nyolfen 11y ago

just a hunch, but perhaps part of the reason they're poor is that they have to spend over a grand on rent

rpedroso 11y ago

The minimum wage in New York is $8.75. Someone working 40 hours/week for 52 weeks/year, which is a generous estimate due to how many minimum wage employers hire and schedule employees, would earn $18,200 every year. After 15% in federal income taxes, that leaves us with $15,470. Let's assume they pay nothing in state/local income taxes. Let's also assume they live alone and have no children or family to care for-- all their expenses are their own. Assuming that they pay $1000/mo for their apartment (let's be generous -- this includes rent and utilities), that leaves them with $3,470 every year to cover all other living expenses. If I spend $50/week on food (which is conservative for NYC), that adds up to $2400, which leaves us at $1070. At that salary, if you spend more than $70 in a YEAR on clothing, healthcare, toothpaste, public transit), then you won't be able to afford $1000 in bail. I spend more than that every year on public transit alone (MTA 30-day pass costs $116.50 -> $1398.00/year). It's really not hard to see how a $1000 bail can be out of reach for the poor in New York.

tanderson92 11y ago
Not to put too fine a point on it, since overall your calculations seem fair and your conclusions reasonable: but at $18200 with $10300 in deductions and exemptions the person's AGI would be only $7900 and hence all of their taxable income falls into the 10% marginal tax bracket. Of course this neglects payroll taxes (you did as well) but also ignores the EITC so suppose these roughly cancel. This results in the tax burden being $790 rather than your calculated $2730. That $2000 is a huge deal to a minimum-wage earner. Your back of the envelope calculation in this specific area was off by 450%.
- rpedroso 11y ago
  Yeah I figured I would be off by a fair bit off when it came to the income tax math. I'm not sure whether there would additionally be some tax burden due to NY state income tax and NY city income tax. You're right that $2000 is huge to a minimum-wage earner -- that's almost 11% more disposable income. On the flip side, minimum-wage earners are more likely to be employed part-time instead of full-time, but only 10% and 2% respectively of those groups are paid minimum wage or below, so it's pretty tricky to come up with a good estimate here.[1] My main goal was to illustrate that the poor spend disproportionately more of their income on basic needs compared to the middle class, and inspire some empathy when we discuss the economics of poverty. [1] http://www.bls.gov/cps/minwage2013.pdf http://www.bls.gov/cps/minwage2013.pdf
jeremyt 11y ago
Your numbers aren't quite right. The first $6000 of income is the standard deduction and is taxed at 0%. Then, the next $10,000 is taxed at 10%, and the remainder up to the next $30,000 is taxed at 15%. You have substantially overstated the amount of taxes this hypothetical person is paying. And that's not taking into account that they probably qualify for the earned income tax credit.
- tanderson92 11y ago
  The standard deduction is $6300 and you missed the personal exemption at $4000.

ryandrake 11y ago

I don't know many people who can comfortably absorb a sudden, unexpected $1,000 bill for anything, whether it be a car repair or bail. People plan their month of expenses around their paychecks, and often have close to $0 left over when the next one comes. Consider yourself lucky if you can afford an emergency fund, but most people live paycheck to paycheck.

jeltz 11y ago
As an engineer it easy to lose track of what people can afford, but I do think most people here in Sweden can afford an unexpected $1,000 bill. I found a study which says that 12% live in households that have a buffer of less than 10,000 SEK (1,175 USD). Most people here do not live from paycheck to paycheck. The real issues are that the poor commit more crimes and that they also are more heavily targeted by the justice system, plus that the US have larger problems with poverty than Sweden.

mikeash 11y ago

I think you're getting downvoted because it's easy to read your comment as blaming the poor for their predicament, but you raise a good point. The goal is to allow people to go home until their trial, but guarantee that they will actually show up for their trial. For many people, especially poor people, there is no bail amount that will accomplish this. It's either so much that it can't be paid, or it's so little that there isn't a great incentive to show up in court. There's no in between. This seems to point to a big problem with the entire concept of bail.

jonknee 11y ago
It would be interesting to see what would happen if you paid people for appearing. It costs a lot of money to jail someone (NY spends $60k/yr per inmate or $164 a day!) which is currently the only alternative if they can't pay bail.
- bcassedy 11y ago
  That seems like a great idea! Though that could also create perverse incentives to get arrested in the first place. Those would have to be carefully balanced.
ploxiln 11y ago
Indeed. I don't mind it much :) Also trying to not meta-comment too much ("I know I'll get down-voted but...")

jonknee 11y ago

America loves to arrest poor people, it's not surprising that they have trouble making bail. I would bet a very large number of the people unable to come up with $1000 or less were unemployed. Additionally, Republicans don't trust giving poor people cash, so the meager welfare system we have involves things that can't be used for bail (food stamps, discounted housing, medical care, etc).