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Competition is about alternatives - the Air Force could have just trusted the Lockheed-Boeing venture to do it. F-35 comes to mind and not in a good way.

by dimitar 11y ago

engi_nerd 11y ago
I'm not seeing the connection to the F-35. I guess you know there was a competition for the right to build the JSF. Both aircraft met all the requirements for the competition. So can you please clarify?
- pyre 11y ago
  The F-35 continuously overruns budgets and gets more and more money poured into it. I think this is the what is being referred to.
  - engi_nerd 11y ago
    It has a history of overrunning budgets, yes, but the per-aircraft cost is declining and should continue to decline. I thought parent might have been referring to budget issues but I'm not really grasping how that's relevant.
    - ceejayoz 11y ago
      The per-aircraft cost is still 3x or more that of the F/A-18, and the costs of operating it are also dramatically higher. http://breakingdefense.com/2014/09/gao-draft-slams-f-35-on-unaffordable-costs-8-8b-over-legacy-fighters/ http://breakingdefense.com/2014/09/gao-draft-slams-f-35-on-u...
      - engi_nerd 11y ago
        http://www.bga-aeroweb.com/Defense/F-18-Super-Hornet.html http://www.bga-aeroweb.com/Defense/F-18-Super-Hornet.html F-18E/F: $65.3 million (flyaway cost) or $80.7 million incl. support costs. You'll see a number of places quoting slightly different per unit costs for an F-18E/F, but they cluster around that figure. The cost of an F-35 in the latest LRIP lot (8) was as follows: http://www.janes.com/article/46129/pentagon-finalises-f-35-lrip-8-contract http://www.janes.com/article/46129/pentagon-finalises-f-35-l... "The US buy is for 19 F-35A conventional take-off and landing aircraft at USD94.8 million apiece; 6 F-35B short take-off and landing aircraft for USD102 million each." That does not include an F-135 engine for each jet, which is anywhere from $10 to $15 million depending on the variant. So while the F-35 is more expensive than the F-18, I do not believe the figures bear your "3x or more" assertion. Also it's difficult to compare the operating costs of a fully mature aircraft like the F-18 with the F-35, which is still being tested and developed. I don't think that is an apples/apples comparison. Disclaimer: all opinions my own, not those of my employer, etc.
        ceejayoz 11y ago
        Sorry, I was going off F/A-18D unit costs from Wikipedia rather than the Super Hornet. Still, ~2x the unit cost plus a 79% increase in support costs is nothing to sneeze at.
        engi_nerd 11y ago
        Well keep in mind that we are still in a low production rate situation. Production will ramp up greatly in the next few years, driving costs down further.
        seanflyon 11y ago
        I'm pretty sure those costs are estimates based on a high production rate.
        engi_nerd 11y ago
        The costs I gave are the costs as contracted for LRIP lot 8, which consists of 43 aircraft. There are two more LRIP batches after LRIP 8, and then full rate production begins.
      - icelancer 11y ago
        While I think the JSF is quite the boondoggle, this is not necessariy a fair comparison. We should expect the F-35 to cost quite a bit more in both upfront and operating costs; it is, after all, much more capable.
        ceejayoz 11y ago
        There seem to be a wide variety of concerns on the capability front. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II#Concerns_over_performance_and_safety http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_...
        engi_nerd 11y ago
        I think somewhere else on HN today there was mention of the famous discussion between Kissinger and Ellsberg about how the world seems different when you have access to information that most people don't. I think most people that work on the F-35 feel that way.
        jessaustin 11y ago
        I don't get your meaning here. Do those people feel like the typical high-clearance honcho that Ellsberg described, or like Ellsberg himself with the wisdom of years?
        engi_nerd 11y ago
        I can only speak for myself. I haven't had the super high clearances that Ellsberg talks about, but I do understand the feeling because of the work I do. I am paranoid about winding up like the "wisdom of years" version of Ellsberg though.
        jessaustin 11y ago
        If one can assume that you have classified knowledge of the F-35 program, and one has seen the analyst's "can't turn, can't climb, can't run" statement, the "trust us we know stuff you don't" stuff rings really false, in today's reduced-trust context. If in fact that's what you're trying to say, because I find this statement to be if anything more impenetrable than the first.

Competition is about alternatives - the Air Force could have just trusted the Lockheed-Boeing venture to do it. F-35 comes to mind and not in a good way.

by dimitar 11y ago

Competition is about alternatives - the Air Force could have just trusted the Lockheed-Boeing venture to do it. F-35 comes to mind and not in a good way.

engi_nerd 11y ago

I'm not seeing the connection to the F-35. I guess you know there was a competition for the right to build the JSF. Both aircraft met all the requirements for the competition. So can you please clarify?

pyre 11y ago
The F-35 continuously overruns budgets and gets more and more money poured into it. I think this is the what is being referred to.
- engi_nerd 11y ago
  It has a history of overrunning budgets, yes, but the per-aircraft cost is declining and should continue to decline. I thought parent might have been referring to budget issues but I'm not really grasping how that's relevant.
  - ceejayoz 11y ago
    The per-aircraft cost is still 3x or more that of the F/A-18, and the costs of operating it are also dramatically higher. http://breakingdefense.com/2014/09/gao-draft-slams-f-35-on-unaffordable-costs-8-8b-over-legacy-fighters/ http://breakingdefense.com/2014/09/gao-draft-slams-f-35-on-u...
    - engi_nerd 11y ago
      http://www.bga-aeroweb.com/Defense/F-18-Super-Hornet.html http://www.bga-aeroweb.com/Defense/F-18-Super-Hornet.html F-18E/F: $65.3 million (flyaway cost) or $80.7 million incl. support costs. You'll see a number of places quoting slightly different per unit costs for an F-18E/F, but they cluster around that figure. The cost of an F-35 in the latest LRIP lot (8) was as follows: http://www.janes.com/article/46129/pentagon-finalises-f-35-lrip-8-contract http://www.janes.com/article/46129/pentagon-finalises-f-35-l... "The US buy is for 19 F-35A conventional take-off and landing aircraft at USD94.8 million apiece; 6 F-35B short take-off and landing aircraft for USD102 million each." That does not include an F-135 engine for each jet, which is anywhere from $10 to $15 million depending on the variant. So while the F-35 is more expensive than the F-18, I do not believe the figures bear your "3x or more" assertion. Also it's difficult to compare the operating costs of a fully mature aircraft like the F-18 with the F-35, which is still being tested and developed. I don't think that is an apples/apples comparison. Disclaimer: all opinions my own, not those of my employer, etc.
      - ceejayoz 11y ago
        Sorry, I was going off F/A-18D unit costs from Wikipedia rather than the Super Hornet. Still, ~2x the unit cost plus a 79% increase in support costs is nothing to sneeze at.
        engi_nerd 11y ago
        Well keep in mind that we are still in a low production rate situation. Production will ramp up greatly in the next few years, driving costs down further.
        seanflyon 11y ago
        I'm pretty sure those costs are estimates based on a high production rate.
        engi_nerd 11y ago
        The costs I gave are the costs as contracted for LRIP lot 8, which consists of 43 aircraft. There are two more LRIP batches after LRIP 8, and then full rate production begins.
    - icelancer 11y ago
      While I think the JSF is quite the boondoggle, this is not necessariy a fair comparison. We should expect the F-35 to cost quite a bit more in both upfront and operating costs; it is, after all, much more capable.
      - ceejayoz 11y ago
        There seem to be a wide variety of concerns on the capability front. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II#Concerns_over_performance_and_safety http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_...
        engi_nerd 11y ago
        I think somewhere else on HN today there was mention of the famous discussion between Kissinger and Ellsberg about how the world seems different when you have access to information that most people don't. I think most people that work on the F-35 feel that way.
        jessaustin 11y ago
        I don't get your meaning here. Do those people feel like the typical high-clearance honcho that Ellsberg described, or like Ellsberg himself with the wisdom of years?
        engi_nerd 11y ago
        I can only speak for myself. I haven't had the super high clearances that Ellsberg talks about, but I do understand the feeling because of the work I do. I am paranoid about winding up like the "wisdom of years" version of Ellsberg though.
        jessaustin 11y ago
        If one can assume that you have classified knowledge of the F-35 program, and one has seen the analyst's "can't turn, can't climb, can't run" statement, the "trust us we know stuff you don't" stuff rings really false, in today's reduced-trust context. If in fact that's what you're trying to say, because I find this statement to be if anything more impenetrable than the first.