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Sure, assuming housing prices don't continue to grow. But lending rates in China are about 6% or so, just the interest alone on a $200k mortgage is absolutely i
by IkmoIkmo 11y ago
Sure, assuming housing prices don't continue to grow. But lending rates in China are about 6% or so, just the interest alone on a $200k mortgage is absolutely insane for an ordinary Chinese person. It's almost twice the annual gdp per capita.
Meanwhile here in the Netherlands a typical house will set you back $250k but the per capita gdp is $50k. Of course the Netherlands is wealthier, but you'd think its housing prices would reflect that and show a similar income/housing ratio, roughly speaking, but it's just completely different.
Housing is in a huge bubble and there's a crazy gap between wages and housing in China. If wages continue to grow while houses don't, sure... but that'd also mean people will sell their homes because they're no good as an investment anymore, which pops the bubble, and that'll create a ton of debt as people are stuck with $200k mortgages on a home worth $100k or less, that's structurally so unsound it'll be demolished within 20-30 years.
My outlook is pretty pessimistic tbh. Although it does seem to be a problem confined to particular areas, that must be said.
- tim333 11y agoI'm mildly optimistic. I'm recently back from Saigon which went through a similar thing - new builds were stupid expensive against GDP per capita and peaked around 2008 or so. Then: "house prices can drop as quickly as they rise. Vietnam's did with a vengeance in late 2010 as the economy slipped. Prices are down by 50 per cent in some parts of the country, and no one is predicting a rebound. Banks are weighed down with bad debt, much of it secured against property..." Economic growth dropped from about 7% nationally to about 5% and maybe 0% in Saigon but is now back to growing 7%. Property in the overpriced new builds is still down 50% or so but showing signs of recovery - life goes on indeed it's kind of booming just now after being pretty quite a couple of years back. I imagine China will be similar.