I don't know, it's not, like, crazy to imagine that both a merger and rejecting a merger might increase stock price. Imagine that someone has the mineral right

I don't know, it's not, like, crazy to imagine that both a merger and rejecting a merger might increase stock price. Imagine that someone has the mineral rights to an area in which they assert there might be valuable mining. You are interested, but lack the expertise to evaluate their claims. Now suppose that a savvy third party comes along and makes them a sizable offer for the mineral rights. You may think, "Okay, this third party has expertise that I lack -- I am upgrading my belief that there really are valuable minerals here." Now if the original party rejects that offer on the grounds that it's not high enough, you might think, "Okay, they aren't idiots -- if they rejected that offer, they must have genuine reason to believe they can get more later," and upgrade your beliefs again.