8 ms·

> Even today, with the technology industry on fire, venture capital investment remains below its 2000 peak. I don't know whether things are in a "bubble" or no

by bcg1 11y ago

> Even today, with the technology industry on fire, venture capital investment remains below its 2000 peak. I don't know whether things are in a "bubble" or not, but reasoning like this does not instill confidence. "At least things are not as bad as the worst they've ever been", no need to worry about a thing.

tomjen3 11y ago
You can't really compare numbers between 1999 and 2015 directly in any meaningful way - the web has fundamentally changed in those 16 years, lots and lots of businesses that just plain didn't work then could work now and the way a businesses is created is also very different (for one we try now to keep burn rates low).
stephengillie 11y ago
Oh, come on. It's only one arm and one leg. You still have another arm!
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
guelo 11y ago
Look at this S&P chart and realize that the first hump was entirely caused by startup mania. http://654advisors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/20110730_SPX_max_linear.jpg http://654advisors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/... That level of investment is huge. The second hump was caused by the real estate mania but at least the country ended up with a bunch of houses out of it.
- digitalzombie 11y ago
  We'll just end up with bunch of online accounts that we may never use.
- MichaelDickens 11y ago
  Exactly. Even though current prices are close to peak 2000 prices, it's worth remembering that the economy has been growing for 15 years, so stocks have a much greater fundamental value than they did in 2000. For comparison, US GDP in 2000 was $10 trillion and GDP today is well over $17 trillion.
- jcdavis 11y ago
  Worth remembering that that chart is from 2011. The S&P 500 is now over 2100, so over 50% above the end of that chart
  - guelo 11y ago
    The recent stock market runnup isn't entirely caused by startups. There's been some IPOs but they mostly seem reasonable.
    - bcg1 11y ago
      Its possible that in the last 2 and this one, over-speculation using leverage as a result of loose monetary policy was a significant factor. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margi...
- sliverstorm 11y ago
  Well, a bunch of shoddy houses.

by bcg1 11y ago

tomjen3 11y ago

You can't really compare numbers between 1999 and 2015 directly in any meaningful way - the web has fundamentally changed in those 16 years, lots and lots of businesses that just plain didn't work then could work now and the way a businesses is created is also very different (for one we try now to keep burn rates low).

stephengillie 11y ago

Oh, come on. It's only one arm and one leg. You still have another arm!

deleted 11y ago
[deleted]

guelo 11y ago

Look at this S&P chart and realize that the first hump was entirely caused by startup mania. http://654advisors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/20110730_SPX_max_linear.jpg http://654advisors.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/... That level of investment is huge. The second hump was caused by the real estate mania but at least the country ended up with a bunch of houses out of it.

digitalzombie 11y ago
We'll just end up with bunch of online accounts that we may never use.
MichaelDickens 11y ago
Exactly. Even though current prices are close to peak 2000 prices, it's worth remembering that the economy has been growing for 15 years, so stocks have a much greater fundamental value than they did in 2000. For comparison, US GDP in 2000 was $10 trillion and GDP today is well over $17 trillion.
jcdavis 11y ago
Worth remembering that that chart is from 2011. The S&P 500 is now over 2100, so over 50% above the end of that chart
- guelo 11y ago
  The recent stock market runnup isn't entirely caused by startups. There's been some IPOs but they mostly seem reasonable.
  - bcg1 11y ago
    Its possible that in the last 2 and this one, over-speculation using leverage as a result of loose monetary policy was a significant factor. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margi...
sliverstorm 11y ago
Well, a bunch of shoddy houses.