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The criticism of the play is that Marshawn Lynch nearly always is able to gain yardage with heavy contact. If you have a running back that is able to do this, a

The criticism of the play is that Marshawn Lynch nearly always is able to gain yardage with heavy contact. If you have a running back that is able to do this, and do this consistently, why would not go for the run?

deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
aggie 11y ago
Lynch is a great power runner, but even he is not automatic to score on two attempts. If I remember right, he was actually 0/4 on the year inside the 2 yard line. If the Seahawks throw an incomplete pass on 2nd down, they have time left for two running plays. If they run on 2nd down and don't score, they only have time for one more running play. So by passing on 2nd down they get an extra play. Since it would leave them with the same 2 chances to run with Lynch, the 2nd down play can be judged in isolation: the upside is a chance at a touchdown (win the game), the downside is the risk of a turnover (lose the game). I am making these numbers up, but that is probably a 30-50% shot at a touchdown and a low single digit percentage of a turnover. Worth it. To expand on the fateful play itself, the odds of an interception on a short inside slant with a screen are very low. Browner jammed his receiver effectively which allowed Butler to sell out on jumping the route and then somehow hold on to the ball. Amazing awareness/preparation and flawless execution by the Patriots. Russell Wilson also lead Ricardo Lockette (his receiver) just a bit too much with the throw and Lockette doesn't break up Butler's interception as hard as he could have. If any one of these things doesn't happen, it's probably a touchdown or at worst an incomplete pass. It brings up another interesting question: many say Belichick was foolish for not calling a timeout to save a bit of time for a desperation drive. But you could also argue he was trying to put the pressure on Seattle and bait them into a bad play call. I think he got lucky. So really, he was the one who made the bad decision, not Carroll/Bevell/Wilson. Once again, outcome bias.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

aggie 11y ago

Lynch is a great power runner, but even he is not automatic to score on two attempts. If I remember right, he was actually 0/4 on the year inside the 2 yard line. If the Seahawks throw an incomplete pass on 2nd down, they have time left for two running plays. If they run on 2nd down and don't score, they only have time for one more running play. So by passing on 2nd down they get an extra play. Since it would leave them with the same 2 chances to run with Lynch, the 2nd down play can be judged in isolation: the upside is a chance at a touchdown (win the game), the downside is the risk of a turnover (lose the game). I am making these numbers up, but that is probably a 30-50% shot at a touchdown and a low single digit percentage of a turnover. Worth it. To expand on the fateful play itself, the odds of an interception on a short inside slant with a screen are very low. Browner jammed his receiver effectively which allowed Butler to sell out on jumping the route and then somehow hold on to the ball. Amazing awareness/preparation and flawless execution by the Patriots. Russell Wilson also lead Ricardo Lockette (his receiver) just a bit too much with the throw and Lockette doesn't break up Butler's interception as hard as he could have. If any one of these things doesn't happen, it's probably a touchdown or at worst an incomplete pass. It brings up another interesting question: many say Belichick was foolish for not calling a timeout to save a bit of time for a desperation drive. But you could also argue he was trying to put the pressure on Seattle and bait them into a bad play call. I think he got lucky. So really, he was the one who made the bad decision, not Carroll/Bevell/Wilson. Once again, outcome bias.