I agree that larger smartphones attract buyers who otherwise might have bought a tablet, but there is zero evidence that hybrid notebooks have affected the iPad

I agree that larger smartphones attract buyers who otherwise might have bought a tablet, but there is zero evidence that hybrid notebooks have affected the iPad. There isn't even evidence that the overall trend foe the iPad is lower growth - just that the upgrade cycle is slower. As for a 'one-trick pony', that statement is certainly false, as Apple has multiple growing product lines. Also, saturation for smartphones may be approaching in a few markets, but saturation for the iPhone is much much further off, so your prophecy of decline is empty as yet.