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I think the more pressing thing to consider is P(injured player | play call). If you consider the fact that your quarterback is on the field for the 2 pointer,

I think the more pressing thing to consider is P(injured player | play call). If you consider the fact that your quarterback is on the field for the 2 pointer, but not the 1 pointer (typically), the slight difference in point expectation is likely not worth the risk to your franchise player.

vonmoltke 11y ago
On the other hand, he is on the field for 55-60 snaps anyway. The additional 4 or so from the two-point conversions isn't going to change his risk profile much.
- honestcoyote 11y ago
  With 16 games, an extra 4 snaps per game means 64 extra snaps per season, which is a bit more than playing one extra game. That seems like a noticeable risk increase, season after season, as well as increased wear-and-tear which would possibly lead to earlier retirements.
giarc 11y ago
Good point, not to mention the fact that the defense can now return 2 point conversions for a TD. INT heavy QBs could be in trouble.
- swyman 11y ago
  Returns by the defense aren't a TD. They're limited to the same 2 points.
  - giarc 11y ago
    Regardless, if you now try to convert more of your touchdowns, and you have Eli throwing the ball, that's going to result in more 2 point conversions for the other team.
harlanlewis 11y ago
Point expectation is a good way to think of it, but consider the expected points of a 2pt (or 1pt) play vs the other 50 snaps a qb takes everywhere else on the field, where the expected points are less than 1. An integer point difference on a single play is huge.
hackuser 11y ago
The risk to the QB is much smaller on a 2-point conversion. Often QBs are injured standing in the pocket, waiting for receivers to get open far downfield. On a 2-point conversion, that situation occurs much less: There are more running plays because of the short distance required (Seattle Seahawks fans might have somthing to say about that), and passing plays generally are over quickly because the receivers can't run more than 10 yards downfield. Also, as others have said, 1 point is a high return on investment for one play.
kendallpark 11y ago
On that note, if I were to make one change to the game, it would be to get rid of kick off and kick return. Yeah, it's exciting to watch, but as a player I hate it. It's the most danger you will ever put yourself in on the field. Concussions abound.

vonmoltke 11y ago

On the other hand, he is on the field for 55-60 snaps anyway. The additional 4 or so from the two-point conversions isn't going to change his risk profile much.

honestcoyote 11y ago
With 16 games, an extra 4 snaps per game means 64 extra snaps per season, which is a bit more than playing one extra game. That seems like a noticeable risk increase, season after season, as well as increased wear-and-tear which would possibly lead to earlier retirements.

giarc 11y ago

Good point, not to mention the fact that the defense can now return 2 point conversions for a TD. INT heavy QBs could be in trouble.

swyman 11y ago
Returns by the defense aren't a TD. They're limited to the same 2 points.
- giarc 11y ago
  Regardless, if you now try to convert more of your touchdowns, and you have Eli throwing the ball, that's going to result in more 2 point conversions for the other team.

harlanlewis 11y ago

Point expectation is a good way to think of it, but consider the expected points of a 2pt (or 1pt) play vs the other 50 snaps a qb takes everywhere else on the field, where the expected points are less than 1. An integer point difference on a single play is huge.

hackuser 11y ago

The risk to the QB is much smaller on a 2-point conversion. Often QBs are injured standing in the pocket, waiting for receivers to get open far downfield. On a 2-point conversion, that situation occurs much less: There are more running plays because of the short distance required (Seattle Seahawks fans might have somthing to say about that), and passing plays generally are over quickly because the receivers can't run more than 10 yards downfield. Also, as others have said, 1 point is a high return on investment for one play.

kendallpark 11y ago

On that note, if I were to make one change to the game, it would be to get rid of kick off and kick return. Yeah, it's exciting to watch, but as a player I hate it. It's the most danger you will ever put yourself in on the field. Concussions abound.