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This article confuses a lot of things by never defining what it means for Bitcoin to "die"... Is it possible that the current Bitcoin clients will be replaced

by drcode 11y ago

This article confuses a lot of things by never defining what it means for Bitcoin to "die"... Is it possible that the current Bitcoin clients will be replaced by better Bitcoin clients using the same ledger? sure. But would that mean that Bitcoin has "died"? Is it possible that the consensus algo for Bitcoin is replaced by a better one? Conceivably, but would that actually mean Bitcoin has "died"? Is it possible the monetary value currently on the Bitcoin blockchain is shifted to other blockchains? Sure, but if most of the monetary value is preserved, does it really mean anything has "died"?

astrodust 11y ago
If you change the blade on an axe, and then later the handle, is it the same axe?
- GigabyteCoin 11y ago
  If by axe you mean an idea, instead of a tangible object, then yes.
davidgerard 11y ago
Bitcoin died in March 2014 with the collapse of Mt Gox. This was a blow it has never recovered from. All since then has been decline as people lose interest. Literally everyone who's bought in the last year is underwater. The fundamentals don't exist; there is no reason for the price to go up and no floor below which it can't go.
- drcode 11y ago
  I disagree, Bitcoin will not go below $150 at any time in 2015-2017. The upside is a lot more murky and harder to put an estimate on. Can you also supply a concrete estimate? Without a concrete estimate, your skepticism is too vague to be meaningful.
  - davidgerard 11y ago
    The 2015 low point to date is $177; this makes $150 seem really pretty feasible. The slope over the past year has been a downward decay, with the individual drops being sudden and unexpected, with Bitcoin advocates insisting every time that this must be the bottom; they've been consistently wrong over the past year. (Admittedly, I'm mostly looking at /r/bitcoin, which is unusually euphoric even for Bitcoin advocates.) The drop from $500 to $400 to $300 was sudden and unexpected, the drop to $177 was sudden and unexpected. The price recovered (the $177 coincided with the Bitstamp theft, selling those off may have depressed the price), but I don't see how $150 is in any way implausible. The cost of mining 1 BTC is circling 1 BTC (hence the volatility of hashpower of late, with fewer and fewer mining operations able to get cheap enough electricity). It'll be interesting when the mining reward halves in 2016. Just because it will cost more than 1 BTC to mine 1 BTC doesn't hold the price up - look at any altcoin. I don't have a figure for the bottom over 2015-2017, but given the above I find $100 entirely plausible. Everything that applies to altcoins (some of which are worthless or all-but-untraded, which is functionally worthless) also applies to bitcoins, so I don't see why near-zero is inherently implausible. (cheers for getting me to quantify my thoughts :-)
    - drcode 11y ago
      Nice of you to quantify, but everything you write is still not falsifiable, and hence not really a prediction in a meaningful sense, unlike my prediction about a floor :-)
      - davidgerard 11y ago
        I will concede that you have advanced a falsifiable prediction and I haven't :-) Here's a falsifiable prediction: Bitcoin will not rise above $400 by the end of 2017, nor above $300 for more than 48 hours. (I generally look at http://www.coindesk.com/price/ http://www.coindesk.com/price/ , but won't fuss about +/- a few dollars on any reasonably respected price chart.) If only HN had a "remind me" :-)
        11y ago

by drcode 11y ago

astrodust 11y ago

If you change the blade on an axe, and then later the handle, is it the same axe?

GigabyteCoin 11y ago
If by axe you mean an idea, instead of a tangible object, then yes.

davidgerard 11y ago

Bitcoin died in March 2014 with the collapse of Mt Gox. This was a blow it has never recovered from. All since then has been decline as people lose interest. Literally everyone who's bought in the last year is underwater. The fundamentals don't exist; there is no reason for the price to go up and no floor below which it can't go.

drcode 11y ago
I disagree, Bitcoin will not go below $150 at any time in 2015-2017. The upside is a lot more murky and harder to put an estimate on. Can you also supply a concrete estimate? Without a concrete estimate, your skepticism is too vague to be meaningful.
- davidgerard 11y ago
  The 2015 low point to date is $177; this makes $150 seem really pretty feasible. The slope over the past year has been a downward decay, with the individual drops being sudden and unexpected, with Bitcoin advocates insisting every time that this must be the bottom; they've been consistently wrong over the past year. (Admittedly, I'm mostly looking at /r/bitcoin, which is unusually euphoric even for Bitcoin advocates.) The drop from $500 to $400 to $300 was sudden and unexpected, the drop to $177 was sudden and unexpected. The price recovered (the $177 coincided with the Bitstamp theft, selling those off may have depressed the price), but I don't see how $150 is in any way implausible. The cost of mining 1 BTC is circling 1 BTC (hence the volatility of hashpower of late, with fewer and fewer mining operations able to get cheap enough electricity). It'll be interesting when the mining reward halves in 2016. Just because it will cost more than 1 BTC to mine 1 BTC doesn't hold the price up - look at any altcoin. I don't have a figure for the bottom over 2015-2017, but given the above I find $100 entirely plausible. Everything that applies to altcoins (some of which are worthless or all-but-untraded, which is functionally worthless) also applies to bitcoins, so I don't see why near-zero is inherently implausible. (cheers for getting me to quantify my thoughts :-)
  - drcode 11y ago
    Nice of you to quantify, but everything you write is still not falsifiable, and hence not really a prediction in a meaningful sense, unlike my prediction about a floor :-)
    - davidgerard 11y ago
      I will concede that you have advanced a falsifiable prediction and I haven't :-) Here's a falsifiable prediction: Bitcoin will not rise above $400 by the end of 2017, nor above $300 for more than 48 hours. (I generally look at http://www.coindesk.com/price/ http://www.coindesk.com/price/ , but won't fuss about +/- a few dollars on any reasonably respected price chart.) If only HN had a "remind me" :-)
      - 11y ago